Member Info for Dingodog1

The current CEO purchased recently, out of his own funds (his previous purchase was converted options at like 15p).

It is also worth noting that HVIVO's turnover doesnt compound. Each year's revenue is determine from stand alone trials/contracts. Of course, sticky customers should result in more work, but £50m revenue in one year doesnt mean £50m the following year. And equally, the loss of a £10m contract on year doesnt mean they wont be able to replace it next year.

The growth in revenue at HVIVO is a combination of organic and external growth, but one thing for sure, year on year the company wins contract after contract to grow. The loss of one or two contracts does not mean that they are dead in the water. The £100m revenue target for 2028 is unchanged, as far as i am aware. Losing x,y,z in 2025 will mean naff all in 2026/7/8 if the contracts expected to contribute to said growth continue to be won

All imo

In April 2024 the December 2023 results were released, confirming £56m turnover, 37m cash, 80m order book. The share price was 29.5p and posters on this board felt the SP was under priced, with brokers forecasting north of 40p.

Fast forward 14 months and the Dec 2025 turnover will be £47m (minimum), cash is around £44m and the highest order book we've had. Yet, the SP is 10p

Surely under valued? I know negative sentiment following the cancellation of the contract, but to write 2/3's of the mcap, which wasnt felt to have been going gang busters, of only 14 months prior?

Seems massively over sold. I am an investor, and i have topped up, but i dont see 10p as fair value. All imo but i welcome others views (and please, no mention of flags!!)

Good point on the CGT impact of the lower purchsse price. However, i think he exercised now as he wanted to send out a message. Perhaps put a floor on the SP. Mo is willing to "buy" at these levels, which should put confidence into the shareholders. He is coming along for the ride and his motivations are aligned with the shareholders. Good on him

If he sold them all at a depressed share price it would speak volumes. It would say that he had no faith in the long term plan of the business and that now is a better time to sell than in the future, where presumably the SP will be lower.

However, he is holding them. A day will come when he will sell (similar to CF) as everyone has their price, as do all investors.

However, he knows more than anyone where the company is going and he will want the SP to be as high as possible when he does eventually sell some. That day will come, but when it does, we will all be better off along with Mo

Exercising at a lower price limits tax. It is sensible.

The shares he is holding will repay that tax/charges suffered if the SP returns to 30p or so.

He has just been given over £1m in shares for free. The number of shares was pre-determined

If he exercised at a higher price then he would have been given an even higher value, but with that, suffer higher tax charges. He now has the shares without the tax burden. He will now suffer CGT upon sale, as most others would.

Mo isnt a multi millionaire like CF. If he is handed a massive boost to his income he need to dip into that to pay the tax

If Mo sold them all, sure, it would raise doubts. He has sold an amount to clear fees and tax, as stated in the RNS

But, of course, revenue is vanity, profit is sanity. Achieving £100m turnover is only worth its weight if the company is profitable. If they can steer the CRS margins towards 20%, then diluted EBITDA of 20% for the company on £100m revenue would be great

Sol, wasnt that clarified by Mo yesterday? He said that a contract approval being delayed by 6 months pushes the revenue back into the following year. If it wasnt for said delay (he said was to do with funding issues with customers) then there would be double digit growth.

This sounds reasonable to me. If there is a production line of contracts to be signed, but the signing of contracts stalls for a number of months then you would expect revenues to fall off a little. However, the important point to note is that they have been stalled/delayed, not cancelled. 2026 revenue forecast may be huge when the time comes. They mentioned they were confident/bullish of hitting the £100m revenue target ahead of 2028

I think there is a misinterpretation of the CRS deal. As far as i am aware we have NOT purchased CRS, we have purchased two facilities from CRS that generated CRS €19m.

HVIVO will not see a penny of the CRS revenue. HVIVO have effectively purchased real estate with which to run future trials.

Therefore, the 2025 revenue forecast does NOT include the CRS €19m. I think the CRS €19m was to give an indication to HVIVO shareholders on the amount of revenue that COULD be generated from these two facilities.

Therefore, the 2025 revenue target is, imo, purely built out of HVIVO contracts.

Please correct me if i am wrong. I am sure Mo will clarify later today

The acquisition also provides lab space. The existing firm may not have utilised the same level of service. HVIVO can now offer larger trials with the additional bed space. They can also tap into different demographics.

Dont see the acquisition as solely their £15m turnover becomes ours. HVIVO might be able to make their bed space generate more revenues as HVIVO services its clients using the beds in the acquired facilities.

Of course, contracts need to be won by HVIVO...

A previous poster, Shandy, mentioned that the target was £67m. Given than HVIVO usually have about 90% visibility of annual revenues early in the year, i can't see why they would set a target they knew they couldnt achieve.

If they know 90% of 2025 revenues already, then i am sure they will base this on the target for the year. £67m (8% increase) would be solid growth. Under promise, over deliver always works well, too

These views are based on current SP. Only a few months ago HVIVO was at 31p, and POLB at 14p. At that moment LTH since 2020 would have been very happy with their investment.

A strong trading update from HVIVO and clarification over POLB (and in time a successful merger) will see value return from current levels imo

LTH selling now are fearful of further falls. Sometimes sticking it out is the best method

For the record, the price may be similar to that of 2020, but LTH have benefited for dividends and the POLB spin out since then. Therefore, LTH since 2020 are still in profit, albeit the SP isnt where many would have hoped it would be in 2025

Thanks, Shandy.

That would be an 8% growth on the 2024 target of £62m

I think a number of shareholders have sold into bad sentiment over the past couple of days. If the company had come forward with videos, comments from BOD etc, and the usual fanfare associated with "good news" then i suspect that the share decline would not have been so dramatic. Instead, we got a wall of silence, with interpretation of the RNS the only thing to go off.

Today's video from CF is a start. It wasnt overly CF "blarney" but it was at least a human touch to recent news.

The recent decline probably was over done. Sitting on your hands and waiting for the dust to settle is often a sensible approach, especially in situations like this

For those with dreams of POLB realising its ambitions, there were the following options:

- sell for, say, £1bn. Unlikely

- go it alone on nasdaq. Also unlikely, would require time, patience, cash and more. Dilution would be a given.

- reverse into another entity already listed on the nasdaq. Would be quicker, but would also suffer dilution.

I do wonder whether shareholders would feel better if the new group was called Poolbeg Pharma Inc. It would perhaps give the impression externally that POLB would be pulling the strings. However, as HOOK is more established than POLB and it already has deals on the table with gilead and roche, it seems sensible enough to use their name.

Of the two sets of shareholders, POLB and HOOK, it is POLB who will have initial control (55%) and then majority shareholder status (40%). HOOK would be taking the back seat. They have rights to their existing deals, but that seems fair enough, POLB get a slice too. But, worth noting that their existing deal has seem an SP decline on nasdaq. They are the weaker party going into this deal.

The doom and gloomers may have somewhat naively expected POLB to announce it was on the nasdaq one day, as if it was that easy. It never was. It never will be. The HOOK deal MAY be a viable strategy to achieve ambitions. We just dont know yet

With a SPAC the original holders in the SPAC take a back seat as the target comes in. Effectively the target takes control of the SPAC, sacrificing some of its equity to the original SPAC shareholders as consideration for gaining them access to a listed company.

POLB will own 55% of the new group. That means POLB have control. 40% after dilution means that POLB is the majority shareholder.

POLB will have the biggest say over what direction HOOK goes. POLB is sacrificing 100% control of aim listed POLB to obtain 55% (later 40%) of nasdaq listed HOOK.

POLB will be in the driving seat. If you are a HOOK shareholder right now you would be misinformed to think that HOOK was taking over POLB and that POLB was their new toy. Not at all. HOOK is the vessel for POLB to realise its nasdaq ambition and the HOOK shareholders will be taking a back seat, with only 27% of the group.

As i said before, IF the new group is worth £400m (or even £200m) POLB shareholders are better off than as things were before Christmas on aim.

As i also said, all imo, AND we need time to tell the story

Scinv, you are focusing on the limited "knowns", which may mean very little a year or two down the line.

"We" own the enlarged group. So, it isnt as if the group have screwed POLB and taken them on for pennies. POLB is essentially 55% owners of the deal (pre dilution), which, in my view, recognises the strength of what POLB brings to the table. Has POLB screwed itself? I wouldn't have thought so.

You could think of HOOK as a SPAC of sorts. It is the route into nasdaq for POLB, but it also comes with some bonuses (contacts, it's own assets etc).

What is the value of a nasdaq listed status? Too much for POLB to go it alone i predict. Joining and then taking over the good ship HOOK as it navigates the nasdaq waters to then push our own agendas and objectives (POLB001 for example) sounds like a pretty good proposition.

There is so much we dont know. So it is all speculation. But, what we do know, is that POLB is effectively commandeering HOOK. Taking its bounty for its own and losing some of its equity as a result. But once all is said and done (if all goes ahead) POLB, with a new name, will be on nasdaq and it will "only" have sacrified 60% equity to obtain 40% of what COULD be gargantuan spoils.

Also, HOOK already have deals on the table with Gilead (£114bn MCAP) and Roche (£208bn). I am sure that POLB can get POLB001 in front of these companies a lot more easily through HOOK than as unheard of UK aim company POLB.

Again, all imo, but HOOK current sp/mcap isnt the depth of this transaction. There are numerous other areas that are of benefit to POLB, not least access to US capital markets via nasdaq

The enlarged group will be 55% POLB owned, 40% post dilution. POLB will be the majority shareholders pre and post dilution.

HOOK is "acquiring" POLB and relinquishing control in the process. Values aside (and at this early stage vs what they hope it is all worth is academic) "we" could end up controlling a nasdaq listed entity that may have a value worth multiples of the aim value.

I think it is important to distinguish between "being taken over" and "taking control of the new entity". Both are correct, but the latter is the stronger position to be in IF the value of POLB001 and other assets is realised.

We dont know what the future holds, but the doom and gloomers are trying to drive a narrative that POLB shareholders have been royally screwed. We don't know that. Time will tell. If the new group is worth only £100m then original POLB shareholders will have assets worth £40m post dilution.

Hopefully CF/BOD will comment on this shortly and we will all be better informed.

All imo, as is the doom and gloom perspective from other posters. Time will tell. CF hasnt entered into this deal expecting to be screwed out of his investment. Even if he is part of the fund raise, it will still cost him MORE money. He wouldnt do that with the intention of losing money

My take is that HOOK is an appropriate "vessel" that POLB can use to access NASDAQ. It is sufficiently "distressed" that POLB can get a sizeable level of equity (even post dilution) to allow a tangiable return if should POLB take off.

Arguably POLB001 is the golden ticket from POLB's perspective, and bolting on to HOOK effectively gives POLB access to the capital markets of the US, which may value it more favourably. Yes HOOK may be coming along for the ride as the vessel, but i wouldnt be too focused on what HOOK brings to the table other than the vessel it provides.

AIM values POLB at, say, £40m. Nasdaq MAY value it at £400m+. That is a ten bag, albeit diluted to incorporate HOOK and the fund raise.

My view is that Cathal is looking at future value, not immediate value. Many on here have said before that AIM is a cesspit etc and thus the value for POLB may not be truly recognised. Taking POLB to the nasdaq via HOOK MAY unlock that value.

IF the new group is valued at £400m on nasdaq i dont think anyone will complain. As i say, i think HOOK is the vessel, not the perfect partner for us to tap into their offerings.

How much would it cost to float POLB on nasdaq? Is that even possible? How long would it take?

I think this route is considered to accelerate proceesings whilst recognising value.

All imo, and the silence of the BOD and CF doesnt help.