Member Info for Dingodog1

You need to divide by 2.98 to establish the equivalent value in relation to ORPH. 10p / 2.98 = 3.35p

Thanks for the detailed post Gerard, i know it will be appreciated by the wider community on this board.

I am an accountant by trade, but sticking some pretty words together doesnt sound too difficult, does it? ;-)

Jokes aside, its seems we are set to go. I appreciate you are privy to more than you can divulge, but i imagine the next 6 months are going to be very exciting, whether you are able to agree or not :-)

The humanitarian benefit of such advances cannot be understated, and the world really needs to take notice, but hey, nothing wrong with us all making a tidy sum in the process!

Let that sink in. Why wouldnt governments world wide want to have this solution? Why continue to insist on shot in the dark tests at the taxpayers (and planets, due to plastic) expense? Why not invest taxpayers money into a solution that provides a future-proof pandemic detection system.

PD works. Its through the trials. DVRG are near to agreeing a deal to provide a worldwide distribution network to all who want it

We have the answers to some of the pandemic questions. It's called microtox PD. Come and get it!

Another step in the right direction :-)

Are we sure it was definitely a buy? At a price of 32.0p it would have to have been well timed for the last hour or so. I bought at 1pm for about 32.6p. The SP did dip since but a buy of that size probably didnt occur at the click of a finger and would have needed working through

I can never trust the buy/sell metric on this site. It always seems to base it on the average SP, or whatever it is they do.

Can anyone confirm it was definitely a buy?

It's been theorised by others on this BB but the SP has dropped to the early 30's in recent weeks, coinciding with CF's desire to buy more shares. I wonder whether there is any SP management afoot? Is it even possible?

CF indicated in the recent meeting/event that he had already tried to buy more shares but the nomad said he couldnt as he held inside price sensitive information, which he expects to divulge in the "next few days" of the meeting.

The fact he tried to buy post results does suggest he wanted to take his moment when the SP was depressed. He had missed the POLB spin off but given he will hold additional POLB shares (much to the chagrin of a certain poster) perhaps he isnt too concerned.

This as-current witheld/to be announced news is likely to spark a rise in SP, at least based on CF's comments. It looks like he cannot buy until it's RNS'd which may in turn force him to buy at a higher price, which no one wants to do if they can avoid it. Has CF tried to "avoid it" courtesy of SP management in terms of RNS releases? It doesnt look like the nomad allowed him to buy when he wanted to, but he still tried.

When he buys the SP will respond well, so i think we are due for a nice increase over the next week or so, but naturally he wont want to over pay

Can anyone recall the historic mcap of the company over the past few months? I have recently topped up at 32p and note that the mcap is showing as £65m on google? I dont recall it ever being that high, at least not at 32p. I wonder whether google has updated its register for the new share issue already? Officially they havent been approved/issued, although i expect that to be happening as i type

I believe the restrictions relate to the maximum injection of £20k. Any dividends/capital gains there after are returns on investments born out of the original £20k (per tax year), and therefore income tax/CGT free.

I am not sure what happens if overseas holdings are concerned. I have no experience myself but i believe the ISA wrapper only applies to UK income taxes

Hi Chesh, what news are we expecting tomorrow afternoon?

I am looking to top up but am personally waiting until AGM approval of the share issue which will likely see the SP fall back a little, imo

Very true. Poland is one of those countries that isnt necessarily associated with warm weather, but it can be blisteringly warm as well as extremely cold.

34°c is very possible in poland. It's 30°c today

If he has flown out to China (looks likely) then i doubt he's done that unless he is signing off on the JV. Negotiations may still be ongoing, but if it was dead in the water then any ongoing communication could be done from the UK

We do have office(s) in China, so it is possible that this is a routine visit, but given the proximity to the supposed MOU finalisation date you would imagine the two are connected

There have been some rumbling by a few PI's in recent days over the effect of the poolbeg spin off on the SP. Many are stating that poolbeg, as well as most/all other spin offs, are not on the balance sheet and therefore should have no/little effect on the SP.

These people are not considering the fact that the SP of the company has little to do with the net asset value of a company. In its most basic sense a company is worth it's net assets, which is balanced by equity. A company is never sold on those metrics alone as it ignores many off balance sheet considerations such as work in pipeline, demand for services etc etc. Given ORPHs past as a loss making company its NA value is probably quite low (recent results confirm the group value to 31/12/2020 to be £22,297,000). It may well be true that this value does not incl poolbeg/DIM/prep/imutex.

However, the SP considers many many factors in addition to the net asset value. Shares can be seen as a commodity of sorts, the value of which rises and falls depending on demand. The prospect if spin off shares in poolbeg undoubtedly attracted short term traders/beneficiaries who fancied a slice of the poolbeg spin off. This would have resulted in pre spin off demand going up, and then, as those PI's sold the demand dropped off. This is in part why the SP has risen and fallen over the past few days. There is also sentiment, that seems low in some people's eyes, and likely not helped by the results.

So, the fall in SP isnt CF lieing/MM screwing the PI about whether poolbeg has any balance sheet value. It is lilely as a result of investors trading the share short term. We certainly cannot value poolbeg on the drop of SP in ORPH as the value of poolbeg is still not known, albeit we have been given some indications (pre funding/dilution).

I am relaxed as things stand, but the events of recent weeks seem to have rattled certain PI's on this board which has led to a bit of mud slinging. Hopefully things return to normal before long :-)

The new companies require two things, the IP/assets (our contribution) and cash (an investors contribution)

The cash is provided in exchange for shares in the spin off. If ORPH shareholders get, say, 200m shares in poolbeg, an investor providing cash will then get 50m, 100m, 200m (who knows) shares in exchange for cash (the amount of which is unknown at present)

So, if poolbeg is worth £20m at IPO, original ORPH shareholders will only own, say, 50% of that value

All will become clear in the next few weeks post the poolbeg roadshow to raise finance

£400m mcap for ORPH is 60p per share

If the spin offs are valued at £300m in a year then i would expect that to be at the expense of at least 50% dilution. So, probably an equivalent of £150m of mcap in ORPH. So, an extra 22.5p

So, as a very rough estimate, £400m ORPH + £300m spin offs (£700m combined ~ the golden $1bn) is probably an equivalent of about 82.5p in ORPH as of today

Spin offs are free shares, but as has rightly been mentioned, we will be diluted significantly so predicting the value of ones ORPH and associated investment in 12 months is difficult

I have a feeling the £50m will be exceeded. Under promise, over deliver

PE ratio is price per share over earnings per share

Earnings per share is PROFIT over shares

We are loss making at present (to FY 2020) Turnover doesnt = profit, so forward PE's etc are not the best metric for valueing the company at the moment, at least when trying to determine what we should be worth

Very much based on % return as opposed to size, but DVRG (£60m mcap) and MODE (£45m mcap) both have big news coming up. I wont go into it on this board, but check those companies out. I personally see those investments "bagging" before ORPH does

One thing is for certain, free shares in a company cannot lose you money (unless ORPH tanks short term following spin off)

We are all in for additional gains across our ORPH + associated spin offs, but its very difficult to ascertain how much.

I would love an equivalent value of £1 ORPH share within 12 months, whatever the micro breakdown is per equivalent holding.

My overall % return on my original ORPH investment will always need to factor in the value of the subsequent free spin offs. I see a pretty decent return as of today. The potential is massive

Hi extrader, i think those ascertions are reasonable in terms of what SP could be.

However, if you own differing quanties of shares then the overall value relative to ORPH changes.

100k shares in ORPH at 55p would be worth £55k
But said 100k shares would only result in 33k shares in Poolbeg, so at 7p per share that is only £2,310, or an equivalent of 2.31p per ORPH share.

So a guestimation of 100p across all entities is certainly sensible, but if the shares held across all entities differ then the equivalent shareholder return certainly wont be ORPH shares held x 100p

I am sure this is understood, but it is difficult to forecast overall return for us shareholders until we know how many shares we will own in each entity and the respective share prices upon IPO.

I am excited for what is in store, but naturally have no idea what my ORPH and associated holdings will be worth in 12 months. I expect a lot more than today :-)

100 merchants already? Fanstastic. I would imagine that 30 or so of those are the individual THG brands/websites. But still, 100 is amazing with no advertising.

Exponential growth ahoy

Milk, i am not commenting on overall potential nor am i saying that we as shareholders wont benefit. The point i was making was the objective one that £200m ORPH to £700m combined (a 3.5 bag) wont be a return experienced by PI investors

Its still great. Undoubtedly. But if, say, ORPH became £500m and DIM, Poolbeg, imutex and prep were all valued at £200m in a year then that combined £700m is not a 3.5 bag for investors from today's approx £200m mcap.

The combined mcap rise undoubtedly is a 3.5 bag across the group, but current ORPH shareholders wont be getting a like for like growth in the spin offs due to the 50% or so dilution to raise funds per spin off.

Free shares is free shares. Not saying it is a bad thing at all. We will all do well if we hold our current ORPH shares for the next 12 months and beyond, the point i was making is that CF's £700m in 12 months does not equate to an equivalent uplift in PI value due to the dilution required per spin off.

Looking even further ahead i hope we can get a combined mcap of many billions. But for now i'll be happy with £700m within 12 months, which will hopefully see me approx 2-2.5 bag from my present investment