Member Info for Dingodog1

Hi Cash,

Do you have any links to CF saying that we will be happy by Christmas?

Hi

Since 1st May patent grant. Is this a sign of concern, or is the silence likely due to things brewing under the surface? Any deals/partnerships being worked on could not be broadcast until the ink has dried. So, the information blackout may well be due to important progressions behind the scenes. Or, it may be due to a complete fall off in progress. Surely not the latter?

If we did reverse into a NASDAQ listed company, what would that mean for our POLB aim shares? Would they remain active, albeit with a potential SP/MCAP boost? Or do we lose our shares and acquire the NASDAQ shares?

4D pharma got a dual listing a few years back and it's gone under

Does anyone have a link to the Christmas comment? I don't recall seeing it

The three quotes you have focused on are those that, indeed, MAY carry some weight. But what about the challenge models? Money can't buy time.

Regarding the contracts during covid? Covid was a new illness. Challenge trials are developed over time. However, HVIVO did get an (up to) £40m contract from UKGOV

In addition, India and China dont scream gold standard in such fields, unlike what HVIVO already does

Human challenge trials are relatively new vs the traditional methpds of testing a vaccines efficacy. More and more pharma's will see the benefits of what HVIVO offer over time, as opposed to the market being locked out at £70m annual revenue, or whatever

I welcome counter views, as they allow me to gain a broader perspective of my investment. So thank you. However, i would appreciate a counter arguement to the IP/challenge trials that HVIVO already have, that takes years to develop

Considerable cash will allow such a start-up to develop similar facilities, but facilities are not the moat that HVIVO has. The challenge trials are. Ie, what customers pay for. They dont pay for a quarantine facility per se, they pay for the intel that only HVIVO has. It could take years to develop similar challenge models. If a rival start-up wanted to achieve HVIVO models and results they would be better off buying HVIVO (at a considerable premium to the MCAP)

All imo, but there is more to HVIVO than facilities and staff. And some of these, money can't buy without major time investment, which is often a dereactor to venture capitalists. HVIVO also have the relationships with big pharma already

Very impressive. Great potential here.

The SP is the highest it's been since June 2021, when the covid buzz took it to 42p range.

The recent rise is on positive growth, and not the "covid stock" buzz of 2021

Hi Thinice.

My calculation was to demonatrate that booked turnover plus deferred income (order book) movement provided a higher level of "income" than had been RNS'd, to the sound of £40m.

We don't know when the £80m order book at 31/12/23 will become turnover in the accounts, but it relates to contracts won prior to 31/12/23, and thus would cover those contract wins RNS'd prior to 31/12/23

Turnover to 31/12/22 was £48.5m

Turnover to 31/12/23 was £56m

Order book on 31/12/23 was "over" £80m

Less order book on 31/12/21 of (£46m)

That is revenue (incl potential from orders) totalling £138.5m over a two year period.

How many contract wins have been RNS'd between 1/1/22 and 31/12/23 (two years)? Based on headline RNS i calulate £96.2m across 11 RNS.

That leaves £42.3m of revenue not RNS'd over a two year period.

The last contract win in an RNS (as far as i can see) was on 2nd Jan, which was realistically secured in 2023. Since then we haven't heard anything.

No, either the past 5 months have been terrible (unlikely) or the BOD no longer see the point in RNS'ing a £5-10m contract win (much more likely).

The healthy pipeline at the latest update would suggest that new work is being won regularly, so i am expecting a healthy half year update, unless anything of note is RNS'd in the meantime (Canary Wharf going live, for example)

As mentioned yesterday:

" The Company may elect to miss payments in accordance with the agreed repayment schedule. This would result in various rights being granted to the Lender including the right to subscribe for shares in the Company using a pre-determined calculation"

The calculation will be something like 90% of the previous 5 day average.

The 40% premium to today's price relates to the warrants, a further boost for the lender. 4 million or so. The lender can choose to subscribe to addition shares at a 40% premium and become a shareholder. I doubt they will exercise that, however, if HELD does take off then they will naturally choose to exercise and then sell for a profit

Whether the company is on AIM or not means nothing to the structure of the loan. CLN's are generally very damaging to a shareholder as often the company doesn't repay and thus the shareholder takes the hit via the dilution.

AIM companies more often than not use these financing structures as no lender in their right mind would lend to them otherwise (businesses are usually very early stage, and want to raise like £5m - try doing that with no turnover and little assets!)

Companies with main market listings dont usually use CLN's as they can usually raise money via more conventional routes. However, main market can still use CLN's much like an AIM company can

Anyone expecting multibagging from the recently announced MODE rto should look at this one as a prime example

I didn't read your post moninan. I reacted in the moment after reading the RNS yesterday afternoon.

The conversion price of the CLN (if that route is taken) will NOT be at a premium to the SP. It will be at a discount to it, allowing riverfort to dump shares into the market to recover their money.

CLN's are the bain of an AIM investor. So many companies SP crippled by them. The company can keep the lights on and "continue to trade", but the SP falls further and further, whilst the mcap stays in place.

Simply put, a £1m mcap company with 1m shares has an SP of £1. A £1m mcap company with 2m shares has an SP of 50p. Same company. Same value. But the shareholders are screwed.

And, the mcap never reflects the initial cash injection because MM aren't stupid. They know what will happen. If you see CLN, in my experience, run for the hills

Cash is king. An AIM company that doesn't have cash is a crap investment imo as the SP will be diluted into the ground. Investors only care about SP. The story, the mcap, the vision, it all takes a back seat

Riverfort loans (with previous companies i have been invested in) often result in dilution and SP drops in order to repay. Definitely the fault of the borrower, riverfort are just there to capitalise. If this share goes the way of the other times i have come across them, then this investment is toast. All imo

Cultivation - to prepare land

This suggests to me that nothing has been planted.

I thought we were expecting first harvest by the end of the summer?

We probably won't get a harvest this year, and so no sales until 2024

All imo

As i mentioned before, UKSPAC rto'd into hellenic dynamics. The suspended SP was like .23 and it came back at .18, and is now like .09

MODE/R8 is the vessel in which redwood will go public. Essentially mode/r8 have to buy out redwood, and then raise cash.

The mcap of mode/r8 may well return at £70m+, but, it will be at the expense of major dilution. The return for shareholders, imo, will be very underwhelming.

I am happy for examples of LTH 10-20 bagging from a shell performing an RTO (but i suspect you wont be able to find any)

I hope i am wrong, because i am down considerably from my mode investment, so i could do with a boost. But i dont think that the redwood rto is that boost

JR owns shares in redwood, surely, and therefore, that is "what is in it" for him. Not to realise a major return on his mode holding. Imo MODE is done, but for the shell that is now being exploited.

Again, i'd love to be wrong, and i'd love to be given examples of major successes from this position

UKSPAC RTO'd into Hellenic.

The share price returned at a lower price to when it was suspended.

Those of you who think MODE shares will be worth 50p need to look at other examples. The only way 50p is achieved here is via a share consolidation (which does not do anything for shareholder returns, it just means 1m shares become 10, same overall mcap)

I am happy to hear of any examples where shareholders in a dead and burried business all of a sudden 25 bag following an RTO, but i doubt there are any