It rings a bell T.rat, but ive spent the past year or so looking into PD, from a DVRG perspective, and other stocks. Its good to know one of the big boys uses us.
Hopefully the more established household brands start to pop up as the months go by, and perhaps a budget feature (per t.rat) and effectiveness rating can be added in time so that the consumer is able to see a range of products that would be beneficial and can then choose accordingly
Thanks trills, that's very reassuring
Some decent comments regarding my original post and i feel that it has got us asking some very relevant questions. We all want STC to be huge and apply across numerous age ranges for years to come. That level of success equals £££$$$¥¥¥
If the product recommendations price out users and put them off then STC may end up becoming a fad, which perhaps only equates to short term benefit.
Therefore, these questions are relevant as it provides a decent SWOT analysis, of sorts, that are very very relevant to the business we have invested in. We know gerard looks at these boards, so we may be in turn providing him with consumer/investor insight
Another question i have is:
From what i can see products from dove, clearasil, nivea, e45, garnier, gillette, lancome, l'oreal, vaseline (thanks boots A-Z of brands :-) )are not appearing as recommended products. These are all products that millions of people buy weekly
Now, does STC not recommend such household names because they are A) rubbish for your skin, or B) because DVRG havent tested them yet?
Hopefully it is the latter (for these brands reputations and the effectiveness of the app). If STC takes off anyone who is anyone will want to use the app and any skincare brand will want the STC mark of approval
I appreciate unilever and proctor and gamble own most of the above brands. Perhaps they are not on the app as the 2 of the top 20 cosmetic companies we aren't working with is the two big guns who own most of the market. If so, we need these guys onboard.
STC is most effective if it is able to say "we have tested most/all products and can objectively recommend the following". If they haven't tested the big two companies products then there is a massive gap in the STC catalogue
Good observation smeeno. I suppose with the varying packages we wont know quite how successful STC is until we see some hard revenue numbers. As has been mentioned by another poster earlier, it would be good to see some divisional revenue/profit breakdown across the various revenue sources. If STC is the shining light, for example, it would be good to see this broken down. If labskin, for example, is stalling/not growing, it would be good for us as investors to see what is driving the business forward
My wife received her STC recommendations recently and, despite a low microbiome score, was disappointed at the price of the recommended products.
She needed to carry out some digging to find the products on third party websites as the STC app doesnt show the price of the recommendations. She calculated that her morning routine alone would cost around £150 (toner, cleanser, moisturiser) and based on the quantity of each product she anticipated she would need to buy more product every couple of months. Needless to say, the annual cost of the morning routine was a heck of a lot more than her current outlay from the likes of the body shop. The evening routine was different products once again, which, although not "priced up", would like result in an additional £150 or so per round of products.
Granted her microbiome score was low, but she wasnt motivated to sink a thousand pound a year (+) into a skincare regime when she didnt really have too many compliants from the real life results of her high street products.
My slight concern is that my wife wont be alone with this view. A lot of people who buy STC kits may well do so as a novelty and then ultimately bin the suggestions due to the cost involved.
I know some users will sink thousands (and already do) into their skincare regime, but i would say that is a small percentage of the global population.
STC needs to start recommending, or DVRG testing, more "run of the mill" products. If any of these are seen to be beneficial to the skins microbiome then i can see STC being the secret weapon in more peoples skincare regime. However, the current recommendations are very expensive and i think that alienates a lot of the would be users of the test
Gerry, if you see this post i would be interested to know your views. This isn't a criticism of the STC testing process, it is purely a comment on the cost of recommended products. Users in their teens, 20's and possibly 30's are likely to be unwilling to chuck thousands a year at their skincare regime, especially in the current financial market. 40/50 year olds and beyond, with more disposable income, maybe. But using social media influencers is likely to generate a lot of interest in the teen to 30's market, many of whom would not then be able to (or be willing to) afford the recommended products.
What are other users views of the recommendations? Ive seen positive responses on social media so i know opinions and tolerances to cost will differ
Good post smeeno. However, the 60,000 capacity is tests processed, not customers processed. The standard STC testing subscription requires 2 or more tests a year for the initial fee.
So, 60,000 tests in the UK, US and China may be "only" 30,000 customers (2 tests) or 15,000 customers (4 tests).
It's still an amazing revenue stream for DVRG and capacity can only increase. The data we are gathering is worth a lot. This will no doubt be sold out the other end at some point, imo
Revenue for 2021 will very much be dictated by the strength of labskin/STC/existing modern water activities
We are in late November now, so even if the CR deal is signed today there wont be any tangible revenue-related progress until 2022.
If we can achieve £10m based on existing operations then i think that is a major positive. GB was confident this could be met and i think he would love to smash that guidance by delivering £12-15m.
The fanfare surrounding PD and BT wont hit the accounts until 2022 and that is dependent on the CR deal being signed and further progress on the CE mark/testing for BT.
DVRG just cannot manufacture/assemble in the quantities required to make swashbuckling revenue gains on their own. We need a third party/parnter. The signing of the CR deal must happen first. The contracts in the £x of millions would follow. We wont be signing contracts to deliver 200 PD units per month if we dont have CR on side. Once the CR deal is signed the real revenue expectations can hot up. The 2022 revenue guidance will be very interesting if the CR deal is signed prior to it being released
If amazon were to acquire MODE (years down the line) would that give amazon its own payment network that would cost them £nil per transaction? Or, would they still incur costs for using other banks even if payment is made through their platform?
I suppose it does raise the ethical concerns of companies sending infected individuals to rival firms to take a sh*t, resulting in said rival's premises being locked down! Could give a competitive advantage to the surviving firm!
Does this count as a form of biological warfare? Does DVRG understand what chaos could ensue following the release of this device...?
It's like skynet or something! We need a microtox PD mk.10 from the year 2050 to be sent back in time to warn us of what could become! ;-p
I believe a key component of the BT is the saline spray that is inhaled prior to exhaling into the device.
Presumably it needs to be moist breath and therefore sticking it next to a vent wouldnt work if too dry. The air would probably pass over it.
Plus, exhaled breath from the BT is very concentrated. A rougue particle in an airport may be in insufficient quantity to trigger the BT chip.
All in my opinion, but if BT did work alongside vents then i would imagine we would offer a seperate unit, the PT perhaps, or the BD. Who knows
Equally valid, although the chances of the postman taking a sh*t in every building he visits is slim, whilst the chances of him exhaling covid particles each time he breathes is much higher. Unless he's postman (cow) pat!
My concern regarding air detection is that it is too difficult to isolate a given area and the chances of a "false" determination is too high.
For example, using it at an airport would be insane. One covid particle detected and what, lock down the entire airport?
In an office complex, the postman enters for 1 minute, expells covid into the air via a cough and then leaves. The air detector picks it up. Lock down the building?
A covid particle is carried in on the wind, etc etc
Wastewater is a lot more targeted. If people in the building have covid then it will be detected. There is no chance of it detecting airbourne covid and therefore the outcome of a positive detection can give confidence that the building needs to be locked down
Better than both? A breath test, a la BT. Used by all staff as they enter a building. No covid coming in, no risk of a spread. Plus it can be used for a whole range of illnesses too :-)
DVRG have the two best, practical and effective solutions in my opinion (spoken by a DVRG holder ;-) )
I recall that the MW takeover received criticism from some quarters at the time due to the " good deal" that it was for MW, given that we already had a contractual arrangement on the reagents/AI.
However, the potential value that PD, and MW as a whole, could unlock is astronomical. If we only had the reagent/AI slice of that pie we would probably be ruing the fact a takeover never happened.
Looking back, the decision to acquire MW when we did looks to be a masterstroke. Some will point to GB, as a substantial MW shareholder, feathering his own nest but if the merger creates significant value for ALL shareholders then who could criticise the man that has the vision for all this in the first place? I certainly didn't/don't.
Having said that, i don't want us going in for MSYS at this time. The micro mass spectrometers look interesting, but i would rather retain our contractual ties with them for now. It could be advantageous to take them over one day, but given that it would likely be a share for share deal (a la MW) i would like DVRG to be worth a lot more before doing so, to limit the effective dilution. If DVRG were worth, say, £300m mcap then acquiring MSYS for, say, £30m with a share for share agreement is only 10% dilution.
At this moment in time MSYS brings a lot less to the DVRG party than MW did at the time. So far we have all received our invites and i can't wait for the party to start. Who knows, it could be sooner than we all think.
The world needs DVRG. We are lining up the ability to give it to them
A follow up tweet from GB confirms that China has over 10,000 water treatment plants.
Just a single PD unit at each plant would take over four years just to address China, at a rate of 200 a month. Schools, nursing homes, prisons? World wide? We are talking millions of units...
Granted that is pie in the sky, but 200 units a month is small fry for the potential opportunity. I am sure we will get more details on how this can be scaled up
"DeepVerge design, assembly and mass manufacure of small nursing home size units come in time for first production by Q2 2022 as per recent RNS"
Suggests to me that the CR deal is expected to be signed, sealed and ready to roll by 1 April 2022.
I would imagine the CR deal would be signed well ahead of then, with a lag time for the early manufacture of parts allowing for the production line to start rumbling on from 1st April.
If we don't hear anything this side of Christmas (per GB's "hope" in a recent interview) then i see January being a huge month
Unfortunately 200 per month, although fantastic, will do very little to dent the potential supply. 200 a month and ongoing maintenance will set up DVRG for a move in to the multi-hundred market cap imo, but we need manufacture of 2,000 a month to satisfy the likely demand. We are talking global demand, not just the UK
CR can certainly manufacture on that scale, but i am not sure cork can assemble on that scale
The data set grows! One day we will starting cashing in on that gold mine whilst customers pay us to give us said data at the other end.
Skintrustclub could be massive. The fact it is now in the US, with China to follow, we are already establishing ourselves around the world. This isnt a concept, this isnt a proposition, this is a real world execution of a service that will make this company £££/$$$/€€€/¥¥¥!!!
I hope we dont sell out too soon. We dont need to imo