Member Info for dictumdedicto

As ever the truth is somewhere in between. Pre-FID speculation, which we may now be seeing, is part of that pricing-in process. If the market gets too enthusiastic we get a 'sell on news' situation, which doesn't last that long if the fundamentals of the story are good. My take on where we are now is that we could well see the '80s before the announcement, but the risks of a drop if there is another delay is tempering the 100p+ enthusiasm. Thus I don't think we are close to be fully priced in for the FID. Some perhaps, but I think there is still a move after FID. That doesn't mean we won't see a drop in the day or two after the announcement. That would not surprise me. What would surprise me is if the price stayed low weeks after FID. It will no doubt stabilise somewhere for a time, but I would hope that is in three digit land.

My spidysense is twitching…

It’s been a long time since that last happened. Hope it’s twitching for the right reasons, and not another bowel movement.

I make the 200 day moving average for gold at around $3350. We are currently around $4310. While I'm not really thinking gold will drop back another $1000, anything is possible. It's still too early to call a top, although I reckon the odds are more in favour of that, than not. I was looking for a 5% - 10% correction from recent highs, with 10% taking gold down to $3800 - $3900. With luck the fundamentals should kick in, and it will start to climb again. If not there could be another $500 in it. Nothing in the markets goes up in a straight line. Gold is no different. We were always going to see a correction. It was just a case of when. My own base case is that it will bounce back, albeit perhaps not quite as quickly as it has just gone up. The USD isn't exactly in an incline mode either so I'm not convinced that this pullback will be too fierce. We might even see some recovery overnight when Asia trades. So far as I'm aware they are still buying.

The link between gold and MTL isn't exactly strong, but I suspect gold sentiment has influenced a few sellers today. Again, let's see what the rest of the week brings. If gold does bounce that same sentiment may see people piling in again.

I think we'll get a fair idea of whether FID etc. is imminent, in trading volumes later this week. It's not a guarantee, but let's face it, we've all seen that movie before.

I’ve just read a report stating that Australians are in 60m long queues to buy physical gold. Concern about the integrity of the financial system is everywhere. And on a day when the general indexes are negative, MTL still climbs. Perhaps at last investors are waking up.

And in today's world of PoG that RNS was a lifetime ago. At this rate it could be $5000 by Christmas. Now wouldn't that be a nice price to have in a Christmas stocking. The mind boggles at what this quarter's results could look like. I'm kind of surprised that the tip sheets are not piling in. That usually perks things up for a time.

Up over $100 as I type. Again!

Yes, PoG seems to be having little effect on MTL's intra-day but this situation can't last forever. Awareness of the hedge may well have been pinning the SP to its current range. However, if we are indeed off the hedge, and the market is rational, then there must be some more significant positive impact on the SP in the pipeline.

Fingers still crossed on 16p in October.

I'm in Crofty's camp, and I'm also of the view that, like all forecasters, the IEA and others have a track record of incorrect predictions about the future. I trust the oil demand line (going up) far more than the supply line which is subject to all sorts of vagaries. OPEC also have an interest in keeping prices up. As for China, they have indeed been building a massive inventory, but you have to ask yourself why? Will the Taiwan bogeyman be back on the agenda in three years time? If this is the case you can kiss goodbye to any chance of low oil prices. In the meantime, back on planet earth, I see oil demand continuing to increase along with prices. 'Gluts', if they are anything more than an IEA forecaster's imagination, will not last against a sustaining increase in global oil demand.

I've got to say that I'm gobstruck by the speed PoG has re-priced. I'm still expecting a correction as the overbought aspect is really getting stretched. And yet...

That $6000 by spring that I was somewhat dismissive of will not look too far fetched if PoG progresses the way it has. I sense it's still searching for a resistance point and hasn't yet found it. It may take a catalyst like the U.S. budget fiasco ending to start the selling, or perhaps the AI bubble bursting. Gold's fundamentals are pretty solid but nothing goes up in a straight line.

Meanwhile, we are still at 14p, though still another two weeks to go for another 2p. 16p in October is still a possibility for me, irrespective of what happens with PoG. Like everyone else I think MTL's price remains below its excellent operational performance.

Interestingly, BoA strategist Michael Hartnett has just declared that we could see "Gold To $6000 By Next Spring".

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/economy/bofas-hartnett-sees-6000-gold-next-spring-amid-rising-debasement-trade-4299299?ampMode=1

I don't think he's actually forecasting that, but is using gold bull history as a template. My own view is that $4500 would be an aggressive expectation, especially given that I do see a 5 - 10% correction on the way to that sort of number.

As for big picture stuff, I'll say again that gold moving so quickly is not a good omen for the global financial system. Gold has already replaced US treasuries as principle reserve asset in many central banks. As this extends, the old world financial order will look increasingly shaky. It's unsettling, but something we'll all have to learn to accept. Short term, part of PoG's move is indeed the Trump administration's policy of reducing the value of the USD, but this is only part of the story. In essence this is the 'technical' aspect of a long term secular decline in the importance of the USD in international finance. While I see gold corrections on the way, I don't see 25% to 50%, sustainable declines in PoG. For that to happen the USD would have to return to a long term bull trend, and central banks would have to stop buying gold. We could even find that $4000 becomes a floor in the coming months.

I think crypto will bounce bank. From what I can see the crypto bugs are even more devoted that the most ardent of gold bugs.

Back to PoG itself.

With a close at $4017, it's starting to look like the expected correction could take place at a higher peak than currently. The circa 2.5% sell-off last week seems to have been no more than a blip on the way up. Given what's being described as the 'biggest (crypto) liquidation in history', it may be that some of the crypto bugs took a bit more interest in gold on Friday. However, in the big scheme of things I'm with others in that I think the fundamental driver is a loss of faith in the USD and the broader financial system. Maybe we are moving into the Ernest Hemingway 'all at once' part of his infamous response to a question on how he went bankrupt - "Slowly at first then all at once".

The cards are stacked in favour of gold at the moment. The only wild card I can really see out there is a bursting of the AI bubble. Given the humungous amount of money pumped in to the sector, failure here could be bad news for the wider stock market, and indeed force margin calls on gold traders (a usual classic response to stock market event).

Nonetheless, at the moment I'm staying put. 16p is still possible in October, notwithstanding the slower market in MTL shares over the past few days. A positive Dupax RNS just before month end could put us there, and maybe even form a base for 17p in November, and 18p in December.

PoG took a hit today; down $93 (2.3%) as I type. I've been expecting this for a while now. It's too early to say whether this is the start of the 5% - 10% correction I've been expecting, or whether it's just a blip on the way up. A drop down to $3600 would not surprise me.

As for MTL, it doesn't seem to react much to PoG on a daily basis, and it's taken a breather itself. I still think 16p is possible in October, though another positive news drop would really cement its assault on previous highs.

It looks like the banks are revising their gold price forecasts for 2026 well into the $4000s. Key drivers being the underweight ETF holdings, continued central bank buying, a weakening USD, and generally shaky confidence in the global financial system.

MTL is going to make some of its shareholders very rich indeed.

I can't really add much to yesterday's, other than the fact that the daily price increases appear to be accelerating. I'm looking at $3960 as I type, up $73.

Out of curiosity I've had a look at one or two bullion dealer sites. Britannias all appear to be out of stock which doesn't happen that often. You can buy bullion and overseas stuff but no Britannias - the 2026 is on back order.

The link between physical and paper trading is not usually that strong, although it's hard not to draw a conclusion that physical constraints may be having at least some influence. Having said that I think the real story is debt and political turmoil. When gold prices rise so quickly it usually means there is something not very nice coming downstream, usually something not in the headlines yet. I'm seeing subprime noises from the US, though I've a feeling that it's just that investors are starting to wake up to the fact that the global economic structure is looking shaky.

We could see $4000 this week, months earlier than many forecasters expected. It's a big number and could form a resistance point. I don't think we'll have long to wait. I'm still expecting a correction, then a recovery in Q1 next year. I do see why MTL should follow it with another correction. Events have moved on since the last time the SP tried punching through the 15/16p point.

You know my views. It's not impossible to think that gold will hit $4000 this quarter, before a 5 - 10% correction; the latter bring it back down to $3600. I'm also of the view that it will bounce back and break its previous high (of whatever it reaches - $4000?). In other words a base of $4000 in Q1 2026, before heading towards $4250 by spring. Yes, gold is overbought, and yes the USD is oversold. However, I'm also of the view that the US Treasury would not be unhappy seeing the DXY at 90 (currently 97) and will continue to manage a fall. Let's be honest, the only way US tariffs really pay off is with a low USD (higher exports, lower more expensive imports - US consumers buy local). The FED's interest rate policy also has an influence on the value of the USD. At the moment, although US inflation remains a threat, the trajectory is still lower. My base case view is a spike, a selloff/drop, followed by a resumption of an uptrend. But then again the US Treasury/Fed's actions in the coming months could yet turbocharge the gold uptrend. I don't think you can be certain of anything in gold's past helping with a future price forecast in this particular market.

As for MTL, I reckon 18p is doable this quarter, and a good chance of 20p. I also agree with others that 20/21p could be a sell point for some small traders, so we could get stuck at the 18/19p point until 2026. I'm cautious on how fast it will move. With current trading maybe 16p in October, 17p in November, 18p in early December. Another positive RNS and we could accelerate that price line into the aforementioned 18p - 20p zone much faster.

I expected gold in the $3800 - $4000 this quarter, but not this early. Maybe it will be the same story with MTL's SP.

"On time and on budget." !!!

Aha. The real story seems to be breaking. Still very much rumour, but the story is that the US Treasury may revalue its gold hoard to......?

Check out ZH for an inkling:

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-revaluation-imminent-us-treasury-hoard-tops-1-trillion-first-time

$3827. Up $67 today which is impressive. I've read reports suggesting the spike is down to fears about a US shutdown, although I'm not convinced. In my view we are early entering the $3800 - $4000 area, but only by a few weeks. I would be surprised if we breach $4000 before Q1 2026, although given the strength of the bull I suppose anything could happen. My current expectation is another spike towards $4000, followed by a 5-10% pullback, and then a break through $4000 in Q1 next year. Further (and early) DXY/USD weakness will break that argument and push gold through $4000 in Q4 this year. However, the problem is that most currency watchers suggest that the USD is oversold, so as we see a dollar bounceback, gold shows a drop. As ever, we'll see...

Slightly edited!

It hasn't happened. My broad sentiments are still pretty much the same.

I read the release about Israel recognising Argentina's sovereignty over the Falklands. It would not even be on the radar without Starmer's two state non-solution statement last week, and is clearly just political messaging. However, I can't believe that Israel would do this without getting assurances from Argentina that its own interests in the Falklands (Navitas) would be protected in the unlikely event that sovereignty did switch hands. Somewhat perversely, as RKH investors, we might actually be in a better position than currently in having a 'big brother' with an influential relationship with Argentina. Meanwhile, back in the Mad Ed Milliband world, he remains an unknown variable. We've debated how much influence this nutter has, but I can't help thinking that he could have some scurrilous intentions some way down the line towards production. I don't actually know if anyone trusts Mad Ed, on anything.

Given the current wacky world of politics there is no clear answer to what recognition actually means. Probably nothing, but then again it could actually turn out to be positive for us investors, and at the same time really bad for the current Labour regime. A brother of mine missed by a matter of months being part of the 1982 campaign. In a sense he was lucky, unlike the ones who died and who Labour clearly doesn't give a toss about. I'm sure their families will appreciate Starmer opening up the Falklands wound again by a reckless recognition of a state that isn't. What next? Will the UK be arming Palestine on the basis that a state has the right to defend itself? You didn't really think this through, did you Keir?

I know, I'm going off at a tangent again - I'll wind my neck back in.

I read the release about Israel recognising Argentina's sovereignty over the Falklands. It would not have happened without Starmer's two state non-solution statement last week, and is clearly just political messaging. However, I can't believe that Israel would have done this without getting assurances from Argentina that its own interests in the Falklands (Navitas) would be protected in the unlikely event that sovereignty did switch hands. Somewhat perversely, as RKH investors, we might actually be in a better position than currently in having a 'big brother' with an influential relationship with Argentina. Meanwhile, back in the Mad Ed Milliband world, he remains an unknown variable. We've debated how much influence this nutter has, but I can't help thinking that he could have some scurrilous intentions some way down the line towards production. I don't actually know if anyone trusts Mad Ed, on anything.

Given the current wacky world of politics there is no clear answer to what recognition actually means. Probably nothing, but then again it could actually turn out to be positive for us investors, and at the same time really bad for the current Labour regime. A brother of mine missed by a matter of months being part of the 1982 campaign. In a sense he was lucky, unlike the ones who died and who Labour clearly doesn't give a toss about. I'm sure their families will appreciate Starmer opening up the Falklands would again by his reckless recognition of a state that isn't. What next? Will the UK be arming Palestine on the basis that a state has the right to defend itself? You didn't really think this through, did you Keir?

I know, I'm going off at a tangent again - I'll wind my neck back in.