Member Info for dictumdedicto

My view is that the uptick is still slow due to the fact that MTL has reverted to ‘investment mode’ as it establishes Nicaragua. As it gets closer to production the SP will rise, and as the prospect of dividends appears full value will be generated. What I don’t know is how fast the market will reward shareholders during those two two phases. A 50% uplift from where we are right now (by Christmas) looks doable, but after that achieving NPV of the project could be slow for a time. The bigger leap is more likely to be associated with a looming prospect of dividends being paid.

Yep. I was a 2004 entry. It wasn’t supposed to be a retirement return, and yet I just couldn’t let go.

Great results.

The usual ‘sell on news’ reaction. Give it a day or two and the SP should start bouncing back in anticipation of the next piece of good news.

$2660/$3577 as I type.

Gold has moved faster and earlier than I expected (by about 3 weeks). I put this down to specific economic and political drivers rather that the usual seasonal aspects\'natural' trading flows. The 10 year gilt seems to have stabilised around 4.75% and the 30 year around 5.6%. I suppose the fact that they have taken a breather is good news, but for the fact that the markets have over 10 weeks to panic over the damage the November budget will inflict. I'm not hearing any 'we will cut benefits and public sector costs' noises from our political masters, so I can't see this gilt yield stability lasting very long.

Today's trading looks like normal background noise, although the large trades suggest that there is still a significant operator working the market. With gold now on the road to $3800 it makes sense to leverage the benefit effect by buying more MTL, a producer, rather than selling. I'm not very clear why, in general, investors would sell at this particular time when (we think) good news is on its way.

Jeez up £75 today, almost 3%. I haven't seen moves like that since 2008...

all will be well until starmer's crew launch a wealth raid on your isa and/or jack up cgt to silly levels. and if you get away with that there is always lewis goodall's extremist views on 100% inheritance tax (enjoy: https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/lewis-goodall-100-inheritance-tax-5hjdbk7_2/). even torsten ******* doesn't go that far (yet). interestingly, in north korea you can actually '...own assets from inheritance or gift, houses, goods for domestic and cultural use, daily supplies and cars.' where does that put the so called thinking end of the labour party? as you guessed, i'm not a fan...

Yep, $3526/£2635 as I look. GBP is on turbo because the pound has dropped (vs. USD) due to the looming sovereign debt crisis. UK 30 year is at 5.7% and UK 10 year at 4.8%. For reference the 30 year peaked around 4.8% during the 07/08 banking crisis and at 4.1% in October 2022 (Liz Truss). It spiked a little more before stabilising around 4.6% before the 2024 election. As for the 10 year, it peaked just below 5.5% during the 08/07 crisis and just over 3.9% during the Truss\pensions debacle. We are way above that now. Looks like records are being broken all round, only the wrong ones. Gold and gilts shooting up so much and so quickly signals a major problem not far ahead. The autumn tax rise budget is looking like it could be a 'Keir Starmer moment'. The bond vigilantes are already out and smelling blood. They know that current and proposed tax rises have, and will, suck the lifeblood out of the remnants of the current economy; they know that the only way to shift yields down is to cut public sector spending and benefits. It's not going to happen under this regime, so I can see gilt yields increasing further, and gold in GBP increasing faster than in USD. If we do get a crisis week around budget time, all bets are off on where GBP gold could go.

With gold nudging up towards $3500 I'm starting to see people forecast anything between $3700 and $4000 for December. I'm sitting at around $3800, with an expectation that the fun really starts later this month. However, Trump's pressure on the FED to cut rates by 50bp could well bring that forward. In fact, the last couple of days the hikes in price may already be anticipating that.

The stars are aligning. A couple of good news releases, plus a steady increase in the gold price, could well put us in the 18p - 20p zone by Christmas. Traders are also returning to their desks so we should see a bit of an uptick in volumes.

Seems not:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-87.255/centery:12.490/zoom:13

Gold has jumped today. It could be that the market is making a bet on Cook losing her case against Trump firing her from her Fed position. Replacing her with one of his own = probable lower US interest rates, a lower USD, and a further incline in gold.

I'm pretty stunned it's bounced back so aggressively. 13p looked like a reach only a few hours ago, and yet it's even looking like it has a chance in the last 90 minutes of trading today. I really hope that people have learned a lesson in how interpret RNSs; the difference between not so good news, and something really bad. It's also worthwhile thinking strategically about how news is released. A new CEO in any company wants to get any bad news out before the good, usually by blaming a predecessor. This is a slightly different situation, but the principle remains the same. If there is a stream of good news expected, get the 'bad' news out first so that nothing can act as a pull on the effects of the good. I'm pretty convinced that this was a classic example of news management.

Well that didn't last long. I thought the SP might drift for a few days, but it looks like a lot more people are clued in to the real news story than I thought. A run at 13p might be too much to expect today, but next week is another matter. Even if we don't get to 20p by Xmas, and 18p or so price is still a 50% uplift in a matter of a few months. There will not be many other opportunities like that; even Rockhopper another AIM stock waiting for big news will struggle with 50% over the next few months. MTL has to be right up there in the top five of money making opportunities over the next few months.

'Despite this set back, as at the date of this announcement, no amendment to the Company's FY2025 production forecast is required...'

As already mentioned, we are still in the silly season where price reactions can be more dramatic than at other times. The RNS probably explains the drift lower in recent weeks (news always leaks whatever steps are taken), with yesterday's and today's drop the last part of it. It's already history. The SP may yet drop a little further as stops are shaken out, and the less wired-in catch up. However, give it a few days and those who take a real interest in making money will be back in, and new investors taking advantage of a lower entry price.

I would imagine that MTL are keeping a watchful eye to ensure the same problem does not repeat. In the meantime I've seen nothing to suggest that a run at 20p later this year is in jeopardy. The next RNS will probably announce that the equipment has arrived at the mine. It's probable that the company wanted to get this RNS out of the way before the real news starts to flow.

The SP has dropped today primarily due to silly season low volumes. MMs need to be a bit more aggressive of pricing when many are away from their trading desks. Two to three weeks from now most will be back in front of screens trying to work out how to make money, rather than sunning themselves on beaches enjoying spending what they have already made.

My guess is that we won't see an RNS until the kit is on site, and then after that a long wait until tests\trials take place (i.e. after installation). But there will be plenty of other news to fill the gap in between, which if everything goes to plan will be less than 16 months away (pre-production ramp-up). And there is also DUPAX as we are regularly reminded of.

As for Gold, I reckon end September\early October before we see a real run to $3800. That could be quick, or it could be slow, but it's hard to see JPM\GS wrong on that sort of thing. Both suggest Spring 2026 for breaking $3800, but I suspect it might be a little quicker than that.

Gold, plus tangible progress on La India, plus a good set of numbers = a run at 20p in Q4. I've no crystal ball but thus far everything seems to be on course for a good Christmas 2025...

As expected Gold has oscillated within a $3200 - $3400 range since April. It's now edging up beyond the top of that range, and in (not just) my view it's getting ready for an autumn blast upwards. This could break the $4000 level, or be only a 10 - 15% uplift. My expectation is around $3800 towards the end of the year. Whatever the case, with the expected good news coming from MTL itself, I don't think that 20p is out of the question by Christmas. As we enter September PoG could well be subdued, but come October all bets could well be off.

I think we need to remember that it's August as well. Thin trading during the silly season. Volatility can be significant (both ways) on relatively low volumes...

It explains then recent drop. Nonetheless, I'm still of the view that $3700-$3800 range is still a fair bet for the end of this year. I think the PoG could still tread water during the rest of August, and September. As for factors pulling it below the $3200 - $3400 range (as expected), I don't really see many, if any. An end to the Ukraine\Gaza situations could act as a short term negative price factor, although neither conflict looks anywhere close to resolution. Short term overbuying can often provoke a pullback, and yet there are not many signs of that either at the moment. Gold still looks like it's in its typical summer doldrums period.

The news is only just breaking on this. I’ve yet to see any signs on the spot, but the futures market is already on the march. I’m guessing the effect will be over a number of months, though anything can happen in these markets.

My earlier thoughts for a December 2025 PoG price was around $3800. This could push it up to the $4,000+ level. The implications for MTL are, well, stellar...

I'm not yet clear what the effect of U.S. tariffs on gold will be, albeit first impressions are that it's very bullish indeed. A quote from the article:

'Things have accelerated a little since then: if we assume the 39% tariff that applies to Swiss goods, then Gold is currently worth $4726 (1.39 x $3400)... which implies a $1.235 Trillion bump for the US Treasury.'

How that $1,000+ increase in PoG will play out outside on the U.S. futures world is yet to be determined, though I can't see a massive spread between U.S. and international prices sustaining. The who thing looks complicated.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/funding-crisis-fears-grow-after-gold-market-disrupted-report-us-tariffs-swiss

As for MTL, it might just turbo charge the price.

Let the discussion begin...