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At least according to Goldman Sachs’s, JP Morgan and UBS.

Now that would make Q4 interesting…

I'm inclined to agree. It's starting to look like the missile attack was telegraphed to the affected parties beforehand. 'A great big nothingburger' as someone once said. I also think that Trump probably authorised release of the SPR to manage prices. Unfortunately, the GPS jamming currently taking place in the strait will likely push up ship insurance. In a nutshell markets have seen through the theatre of it, despite the excitement in some media sources. Oil is down on the day and gold's rise is not outside of a normal day's trading range.

So long as Trump writes it off as missile target practice we should see normal service resume (i.e. Israel vs. Iran but excluding the rest of us).

So far the market reaction has been muted to say the least. It feels like we are on a knife edge waiting to see what Iran does next. I doubt it will take much for chaos to ensue, but at the moment investors seem to want to sit on their hands (as am I). Nonetheless, if I was buying it would be gold and oil. We are all waiting for Iran to make a move.

I’m guessing China is leaning on Iran to leave Hormuz alone. Markets are sanguine about the situation so probably don’t think it will happen. Nonetheless, it will only take a single trigger to start some chaotic trading. Everything feels like it’s on a knife edge.

Oil and gold could be the only (relatively) safe places tomorrow. I'm expecting high volatility across the board as investors resort to cash and safe havens. As a producer MTL may be safer than most. It's a difficult call. Whatever the case I'm going to ride the turbulence rather than panic. Who knows, we may even see it benefit from what is potentially a period of chaotic uncertainty.

Oil and gold are likely to go up when the markets open later tonight. Hormuz transits 20% of the world's oil which is not exactly marginal. The problem is a lot of it goes to China, who may well veto the action tomorrow. Quite honestly what is of greater concern is that a rogue state like N. Korea 'gift' a nuclear weapon, or that Iran resorts to a dirty bomb. Neither option takes us down a road down anywhere near peace. I'm thinking Pandora and the box at the moment...

If, probably when, oil increases in price tonight/tomorrow it could blast through $100 very quickly. In which case the whole oil sector lights up. Saudi/OPEC may talk about turning the taps on but there is no way that 20% of global oil can be replaced very quickly. Markets will be all over the place tomorrow.

Between 30% and 40% of U.S. treasuries are rolling over in the next 18 months. The problem is that these were marketed at coupon rates of 2 - 2.5%. The ten year is already at 4.5%. My guess is that this avalanche of debt will push yields beyond 5%, possibly up the 7 - 8% area. In essence this is a slow burn crisis in the making, and with the BBB the U.S. seems incapable of reducing debt. And all this is happening just at the time MTL is shifting into gold production mode with a new mine. The USD will take a hit over the next couple of years, with obvious implications for the PoG. The only question you need to ask yourself is how much gold you should hold as a % of your portfolio. 100% is too much, but the days of 10% max seems far too low given the tailwinds for all things gold.

Thanks for that Crofty. You saved me the trouble.

Today's news on the OM situation is pretty transient. As of tomorrow it's irrelevant to anything, other than the insurance payout. Indeed, I would expect an uptick when RKH announce receipt of the cash, which I fully expect announced via RNS. What we've probably seen is a whole bunch of stop losses triggered as the MMs tried to figure out where to place the SP. Sales were likely amplified by nervous sellers and day traders, both of whom may well reconsider the situation as the SP shows signs of life again - possibly even before the end of today.

The real news is the release of the independent report pretty much lost in the noise of the OM news. And on the back of that the FID announcement which is the real game changer. The FID is probably not June or July, which will impact on the fast buck traders, but it could come any time after that. That's what I'm waiting for, and that's why I've just watched the SP bounce around rather than bailing out.

It makes us all feel better watching the SP go up, but if you are not ready to sell and are waiting for the bigger payday why get too excited. Barring some sort of major natural disaster, conflict or political idiocy (probably the biggest risk), much of the bad news is already behind us. Who knows, maybe three months from now we will be laughing about how immaterial the who OM story actually was.

Still holding strong.

Trump has literally just threatened the EU with 50% tariffs from June 1st. Gold up; US bond yields up. A classic example of how much the US is in a bind.

Anyone who thinks in 'gold bubble' terms really needs to build an argument for an increased USD value (vs gold) given the context:

1) U.S. debt heading for $40t already, potentially 50t by the early 2030s. Annual deficits are increasing not falling.

2) U.S. policy is to reduce the value of the USD against other currencies (incl gold).

3) U.S. economy likely heading for stagflation.

I just don't see a case for a higher value USD against gold.

I'm looking for MTL 15p by the end of 2026/early 2027, with most of the increase arriving with newsflow next year. However, while PoG and MTL don't seem to correlate as much as you might expect (likely due to no divis and cash directed at mine development), I do think a $4000 price could help pull MTL close to 10p later this year. It's a guess rather than a probability though I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility.

My take is that there is a slightly greater than 50% chance that gold in USD will hit $4000 in the last quarter of 2025. If it does $6000 is a fairly modest 'increase' by 2029.

Many sovereign bond yields have been rising, reflecting the increasingly nervous U.S. market. The U.S., with its $2t + annual deficits is heading for $40t over the next couple of years (or less). Investors are getting jumpy. This is not cyclical, as some like to think, but structural. The U.S. is in a hole. It's simply incapable of spending less. With the tax take stuck at $5t there isn't much more income to go for. Tariffs are already a failure. Trump broadly dropped them because the bond markets increased yields thus increasing interest payments. He's still looking for a balance but with long end yields above 4% the future doesn't look rosy. Higher yields in these circumstances, unlike the past, will not attract investors away from gold. The yields are increasing because of the risk, the real risk of inflationary default.

Gold will fluctuate with sentiment and news on a day by day, week by week basis. However, if you strip away the noise it's pretty obvious that the value of the USD will fall as debt increases (indeed, encouraged by US policy) and gold will 'go up' accordingly. As you know I see gold as the constant; it's the fiat currencies that fall in value against it.

Monetisation of gold article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/gold-reconsidered-strategy-facilitate-21st-century-united-states-excellence

Ostensibly driven by the no deal with China noises emanating from the US. Perhaps, although recent price moves have been driven mostly by central bank buying rather than retail. Given that China now control the gold price (vs. COMEX/LBM) I would guess that China is buying again.

I'm afraid I can't agree with your suggestion that the US can cope with its debt levels. The wheels do seem to be coming off:

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/interest-expense-avg-interest-rates/

Bear in mind that this is only up to April 2025, and it's already over half the 2024 total. The annual deficit will be circa $2 trillion this year, possibly up to $3 trillion if there is a US recession. These levels have never been seen in peacetime. To give it some context, the total US tax take was $4.92 trillion in 2024.

'By 2035, Moody’s estimated the U.S. will spend 30% of its revenue on paying interest on its debt, up from 9% in 2021 when borrowing costs were still low. Meanwhile, debt will rise to around 130% of GDP by 2035 from nearly 100% in 2025.'

https://fortune.com/2025/03/30/us-debt-deficits-exorbitant-privilege-dollar-treasury-bonds/

Revaluing gold will be just one of the tools the US will deploy to address the problem. Other ideas being kicked around are tariffs (already underway), getting Western nations to pay for military protection, and monetising US federal assets via the use of some sort of sovereign wealth fund. See also the Mara-a-Lago Accord which essentially involves reducing the value of the USD.

Talk of a new gold standard is a bit of a red herring. A gold revaluation will play a part though it's unlikely to be the only global reserve asset. Having said that there could easily be enough gold for a new standard if the right fiat (all currencies) price is set. I've never really understood the scarcity argument when expressed in fiat currency valuation terms. There is negligible possibility of physical gold going into circulation as a medium of exchange, though a physically backed digital currency is not beyond possibility should there be an appetite for it. Not so far fetched in a world where crypto is seen as a viable alternative reserve asset.

You misunderstand.

There will not be one reserve currency in the future but several. Each probably having a regional focus. I can see a time when the USD dominates the Americas, the Euro (or a successor) Western Europe, and the Yuan in Asia. Central banks in other areas outside of a regional reserve's 'sphere of influence' (to borrow a 19th century term) will likely hold a mix of each reserve currency, the mix being influenced by politics. As for the gold standard, as Mark Twain said 'History does not repeat but it does rhyme'. Gold has already been adopted as a reserve currency by many non-Western central banks. This does not mean a 'gold standard' as such, but it does translate into cross-border settlements being made in gold as well as fiat. This is not a predication; it's already happening.

The $36-$37 trillion problem the U.S. has is not solvable by anything other than default or inflation. The latter is/will be chosen. It is difficult for the US to inflate against other fiat currencies, most of whom have similar problems (and solutions). But the U.S. can reduce the value of the USD against gold. My guess is that at some point they will announce that the value of US gold is $3500, $4000, $5000, $10000 - take your pick. That changes the dynamic. The US balance sheet looks a bit better, and the value of the USD has dropped - as has the real value of every entity holding a USD denominated security. The Chinese will not lose much sleep despite the bonds they hold. Why would you when (speculatively) they hold at least X10 the amount of gold declared on the Bank of China's balance sheet.

Now what you have to think about is what an official revaluation of gold in the US will do to other currency gold values. I reckon that it would kick off a global reset, and a pretty quick one at that.

This is all future stuff, though I don't think it's in the far distance. Public debt levels are a real issue across the world, with the pinch point the U.S. Something significant is coming and it would not surprise me to see it in the next years or two. There's nothing conspiratorial about it. It's simply following a logical path from problem to action (note that I don't use the word 'solution' - there's no guarantee it will work).

Meanwhile gold is waking up again; up $70 as I look. It will be interesting to see if London picks up the ball tomorrow...

I've not posted for some time, albeit now feels like its time to dust off the investment file and start kicking round ideas.

One thought that is going through my mind at the moment is the effect of the FID RNS. Will we get an instant 'sell the news' dip, or will it bring in some substantial investments. The FID is somewhat different in terms of the nature of the news that a lot that has been released in recent years. It's a lot bigger in terms of its importance. It's the kind of news that puts RKH on the institutional radar.

Where my head is at the moment is that we may see a bit of a sell-off on the day of the announcement (the trader effect), though soon after we will see some 'buy the dip' traders move in, followed by some more serious investing. All that could happen pretty quickly. I've a sense that some larger investors may well have run the rule over RKH and are just waiting to see the FID content before putting cash on the table. Plus the herd instinct may also play in (both ways).

Other views invited.

My view:

The price of gold in USD is only just getting going. Trump appears to be engineering a US recession to help reduce the value of the USD vs other major currencies. China has effectively taken control of the gold market over the past few years by central bank buying and encouraging retail buying with the Chinese economy. Technically, the USD remains the world reserve currency, though in reality gold has returned to centre stage (increased settlements allowed in gold in the Asian world). Some parts of the world have been exiting the US bond markets and discretely buying gold. With Trump resisting China's efforts to manage its currency (keep it low) against the USD, by positioning gold centre stage it can manage the value of the Yuan against gold, without exacerbating the USD/Yuan pair problem. In other words both entities can reduce the value of their paper against gold - works for everyone. Thus, for me the question is not one of how high gold can go, but one of how low the Chinese and US will allow their currencies to fall against gold. And I reckon we are still quite a way off that just yet.

As for the 'now' price. We have had a technical pull back in USD terms. As we all know, nothing goes up in a straight line and this is one of those situations. My belief is that China is managing its incline in Yuan terms, and by implication in USD terms ?(they control the price). When ready they will let it run again. For now though perhaps the $3200 - $3400 is where they want it. Having said that the US is not without considerable influence on the USD price. If Trump wants a higher PoG he just promotes policies reducing the value of the USD. My overall guess is that we will see $3500 again this year and may see a run at $4000. Quite frankly anything can happen.

As an ex-Condor holder I'm staying put. If MTL does reach 15p + over the next couple of years it's not far short of where I expected CNR to get to with a build programme, especially with the CVR sweetener. Some CNR holders expected a substantial cash return by now. It's been a disappointment in terms of timelines though ultimately the investment will pay. As a 15 year plus investor in this I've learned to be very patient, and another two years or so is not really that long. Especially when you have a plan, a good management team, and the finance to see it through.

Gold sold off a bit plus we’ve had some ‘sell on news’ trading. The fundamentals re: both gold and MTL remain unchanged. As we all know nothing moves in a straight line in markets intra day. I’m guessing the uptrend will resume in both in a relatively short space of time.

The comments regarding the U.S. China situation cheered the markets yesterday, though there is nothing tangible to grab on to yet.

Re: La India

Jeez, in Condor terms that would be classified as an exciting update…

How times change.