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I've just read the US market wrap for today:

'...Heavy selling lashed Wall Street anew on Monday, with longer-dated Treasuries joining stocks and the dollar in a deepening slump, after President Donald Trump's rejection of Jerome Powell's interest-rate policy sowed angst amongst investors already coping with a global trade war...'

Says it all really.

I'm always hesitant to use the phrase 'this time is different'; I'm more of a Mark Twain 'history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme' person. However, there are some big differences, the biggest one being the unsupportable debt position of the U.S. It currently sits at $37 trillion and is heading for $50 trillion without the economic paradigm of the last few decades changing. Thus, even if Trump does back off on his current tariff regime all that does is buy a little more more time. Perhaps until the early 2030s.

It used to be the case that large investors would flock to the US treasury/bond markets when uncertainty reigned somewhere in the world. Alas, that uncertainty is now caused by the US. While the US bond market remains the most liquid in the world nervous investors are now flocking to gold, and other sovereign debt markets. The process of the USD moving from THE reserve currency to just A reserve currency is underway. And the so called bond vigilantes know it.

Nothing goes up in a straight line. There will be a gold selloff at some point, likely catalysed by the realisation that the USD has oversold. But that will be temporary, a blip on the multi-decade process of the USD losing its primacy. For now though gold remains in a bull, quite possibly to $4000, or until the financial world discovers some renewed faith in the USD's value - a difficult one given Trump's clear objective is to reduce its value vs. other currencies (incl gold).

I can see the gold ride continuing for a time.

This is certainly not normal and more than hints at significant global economic and financial instability. Whether it signifies the real beginning of the end of USD hegemony remains to be seen (some would say it started 10 - 20 years ago), though it's pretty obvious that confidence in the U.S. is not exactly high.

I can only speculate that the race to exit US bonds and into gold is accelerating. It seems crazy to me but $3500 gold may only be a day or two away. I'm waiting to see what the FED will do in an attempt to calm matters.

Meanwhile, we might even see 8p MTL tomorrow...

I think a lot of the misunderstanding of the PoG price is based on the assumption that it is the USD that is the constant vs. gold. The USD has never really been the safe haven it has (over the last century) been perceived to be. That is now becoming obvious to the crowd who have usually bought US bonds as a 'safe' bet in times of strife. Alas, it's the US debt weighing over the US economy and USD that is causing concern amongst that community. US bonds aren't actually that safe, hence the lack of enthusiasm for new issues. The US debt overhang has caused enough anxiety over the past few years, and now it is amplified by the US China trade war and China's selling programme.

The reality is that it's the USD that's been in a bubble for the past few years and not gold expressed in USD. That bubble has been burst by Trump's tariff policies and other proactive 'reduce the USD' policy. Indeed, the pressure on Powell to reduce US interest rates is all part of this. The DXY has already slipped below 100 (110 back in January) and this is just the start. Trump wants a lower USD for competition reasons.

Add the central bank buying, impact of BASEL III (I agree with your analysis), the general difficulties in mining gold, and you have a recipe for far higher prices. I won't fall over in shock if we hit $4000 this year, though will get jumpy if it exceeds $4500. After all, as I think Rick Rule once said, high gold prices are not something to be celebrated, they are a symptom of a collapsing financial system. And that's not an environment we should look forward to given the economic and political implications of what our masters might impose on us. My preference is a slow but steady (managed even) rise (in all currencies) as the new financial world order establishes itself.

Meanwhile stay put in MTL; maybe top-up. It's looking like the risks of investing in almost anything else are barely lower than putting money in Central America.

Gold is the constant. I tend to see it more as a 'gold vs. US bond market' rather than any particular currency (incl USD). The US bond market is not in a good place and yields are likely to go higher (Trump wants a lower USD and lower interest rates - could be an interesting effect on bond yields this). The rest of the world, excepting some Western central banks, are buying gold and slowly dumping US debt. Recent US auctions have not gone well. In a nutshell the effect of this lot will be higher US bond yields, a lower USD and a higher gold price in most currencies.

Nothing 'goes up' (i.e. from a currency perspective) in a straight line. It's possible gold will take a breather before resuming higher prices. A very short time ago $3500 looked like a reach, now $4000 in 2025 looks like a possibility (not a prediction, but certainly on the low to mid probability spectrum). Bits of perceived positive or negative news will create these short term swings.

As for me, I'm staying put. I'm of the view that the metal will creep up towards $4000 in 2026, if not later this year. And yes, the miners have a massive amount of catching up to do.

One other factor, a feature of bubbles is that the 'man in the street' is queuing up to buy the asset (whatever that might be). I've certainly not noticed that yet. I hear the odd comment but it's hardly reached mainstream. Even the media hasn't locked on to it yet (usually the last to notice). When Sky News headline on it, that may be the time to bail.

Meantime, just ride the rollercoaster as it slowly climbs.

'Basis trade.'

Watch for those two words over the next week or two. Google it and you will find reference to the 'basis trade blowing up'. It's a lot bigger than currently recognised by much of the financial commentariat. It involves the whole hedge fund world and how they use leverage and margin to make money. Problem is that the volatility in asset pricing seems to be hurting that world badly. There's already talk of Fed bailouts (yep, not even banks but the wild west of finance).

What it seems to mean is that it's good for gold, and by implication MTL.

From my perch I don't think $3500 is that far off, and even $4000 in 2025 is not beyond one's imagination.

A quote from a report 2 days ago:

'It turns out that since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, hedge funds have been placing bets with up to 100 times leverage on the price difference between Treasuries and Treasury futures contracts. In the bet, to put it simply, you buy the Treasury bond and then short the differently priced futures contract on a similar bond. As the bond comes up on its expiry date, the prices converge. The futures price comes down, and your short bet pays off.'

It's mostly about the U.S. bond market (ref: Trump's 10% tariff change yesterday), but it also happens in other asset classes.

The chips haven't fallen yet.

MTL has an awful lot of catching up to do.

Gold is signalling a liquidity crisis looming, likely driven by basis trade problems across multiple asset sectors. Good for gold; bad for everything else.

Agreed.

This will pass.

China has just applied 34% tariffs on all US imports, applicable April 10th. The markets will remain spooked and volatile until the trade war nonsense dies down. Meanwhile, sitting tight is likely the best policy, as I can guarantee from experience that trying to time buying\selling in an irrational market is a fool's errand.

Goldman Sachs have just increased their year end forecast to $3100.

I'm thinking it could exceed that.

According to the LBM, the reason for the 6 - 8 week delays in deliveries at the moment is that although gold physically sits in the vaults it is paper traded multiple times a day. Given that there is some fear (I've only seen media speculation) about a Trump tariff on physical gold, demand for physical delivery has gone up. LBM basically say that they are challenged finding the physical bars (numbered) they need to meet delivery, hence the backlog. It smells like BS to me but there might be a grain of truth in some of it somewhere.

I was expecting $3000 this year but not in Q1. Looks like it might hit it. Nonetheless, past experience suggests a pullback and then another move past any old highs.

I'm guessing most of the ex-Condor shareholders who want to bail have done so by now. Perhaps we'll now see an earlier move past 6p on the back of gold's pretty solid performance.

My own mid-term (i.e. next year) target is 15p. As an very long term (my first foray was on 7th Oct 2009) Condor investor I think we are in a better position than were we were 4 weeks ago. Yes, I'm disappointed with the return to date, but I now see a realistic prospect of this tripling in value in the next couple of years. When you have been in a share for 15 years another two does not seem like an eternity.

MTL must expedite development of Condor's asset, or it will have no reason to exist beyond 2027. While I can understand some of CNRs investors losing interest, and selling, I am not one of them. I won't increase my investment (asset weighting reasons) but I fully intend to stay the course with what I have.

Incidentally, I've had a re-think on my CGT calculation. I'm going to use the maximum 11.1p in the 2024/25 and offset against losses this year. I could take the view that the right has zero value and defer in to the future, although can you trust Labour to leave CGT alone?

For info, this is BDOs advice on earnouts:

'If the earnout amount is not ascertainable at the time of the transaction the earnout right itself is treated as a separate asset. The gain in the year of transaction will need to include the market value of that earnout right at the time of the transaction given it is the consideration given by the purchaser for the shares sold. Depending on the earnout conditions this may be a fairly small amount or something close to the maximum that can be paid out under the arrangements. When the earnout pays out this will be treated as a disposal of the earnout right for the amount then received. The earnout right’s base cost for tax purposes will be the value brought into account for tax in the year of the original transaction with a gain or loss arising on the difference with the amount actually received. This will be taxed in the year the earnout amount is received.'

The CVRs are technically non-qualifying. A broker would usually move any non-qualifying shares\security into a taxable account (F&S in the case of HL) within 30 days. They will open an account if one doesn't exist - at least that's my understanding. However, if, as, and when the CVRs pay out, the cash ends up in the taxable trading account. Yes, it will be subject to CGT in your personal calculations. The ISA question then becomes a practical one of whether the cash resulting from the CVR, and sitting in your trading account, can be transferred to your ISA account without it affecting your £20k annual limit? This of course given that the CVR is part of the consideration for an original transaction taking place within an ISA.

I'm looking in to it, starting with government guidance on 'Rights issues and other offers to shareholders', which amongst other things states: 'Any proceeds received from lapsed rights in respect of an investment held in an ISA (or a Junior ISA (JISA)) may be paid into the ISA (and must be paid into the JISA). The payment is not a subscription and does not count towards the annual subscription limit.'

As ever with tax the answer is down to interpreting the rules against a defined set of circumstances, not necessarily specifically anticipated by the taxation acts.

To discuss.

Agreed. They either need to put the CVR at zero, or at 11.p. Both are likely wrong but at least there would be some logic behind it. On mine they have used 32.5p x the old CNR shareholding, not even the closing price on the last day of trading. Makes no sense.

The CGT calc is a bit messy for the cash element held outside an ISA. I've assumed zero for the CVR but will revisit if, as, and when the note pays out.

Think yourself lucky. On mine it is 5.652p/share!

Slim

I suspect the legacy MTL shareholders will be mystified by your thread. On the other hand 'Onion Head' is a far more relatable reference. I'm assuming you will continue to grace us with your humour.

I'm guessing the mms don't want to mess with the share price too much until all the new shares are trading, which they clearly are not just yet.

HL still showing a holding line, but are not exactly moving very quickly to allocate. I know they had a platform problem yesterday (fair enough), but I'm not clear why they haven't allocated the shares this morning. After all, as per the presentation, MTL believe all the new shares are allocated and trading.

As an ex CNR holder I'm very impressed with our new leader. He's knowledgeable, straight -talking, and bullish about the new prospect. MTL will remain a chunky part of my portfolio.

Is it a coincidence that 5.5/5.8 pretty much gives me in MTL value terms what I exited CNR from when it suspended? I'm not really convinced, given the volume of MTL shares in issue, that a 7.6% drop in price is purely down to trading activity today. It looks like there is potentially some marcap 'balancing' taking place between the old MTL and new MTL tranches.

I could certainly be wrong, but the price changes today feel a tad artificial (vs. pure market driven).

Comments/alternative views invited.