Member Info for dictumdedicto

It looks to me like it’s down to price, probably how many Calibre shares, assuming Calibre. Short term the update looks like it’s been received with a yawn. Unfortunately, this looks like it could go on for weeks or even months. It’s frustrating but I’ve come this far and intend to see it through.

Nope. I don't buy it. I still think an all, or mostly, paper offer for Condor is the most likely outcome. I'm also of the view that JM will pull the plug before long. He won't drip fund it forever.

The annual report could drop any time, along with something meaningful. I can only think that the delay is down to a pretty material post balance sheet event...

Oscillating around $2380. It may be getting ready for another push past $2400.

I should say that I would expect paper to be the larger proportion of any offer around the 55p mark. In other words, the more cash the lower the price outcome. Perhaps 45p is a more realistic outcome if it's all cash. If we get some sort of part up front / part delayed performance based element, that might act in the same way as paper i.e. up the valuation outcome.

I'm as confident as I can be that the outcome will not be less than 40p, and (now) not at all confident that it will be above 55p. I'm also thinking that JM is waiting for PoG to resume it's run so that he can negotiate a bit more out of the deal. If that is the case then an RNS may be as far away as it was months ago.

It seems reasonable to assume that the buying on Friday afternoon might have been prompted by the Moneyweek article. There may be a bit more on Monday as the people who didn't get the chance to read it on Friday take a punt. We'll see.

Recommend as appropriate.

We know that Dominic Frisby has a 45p target.

Recommend as appropriate.

Recommend as appropriate.

Recommend as appropriate.

I'd like to think we can reach this band, down from my 60 -65p expectation of early 2023.

Recommend as appropriate.

Recommend as appropriate.

I'm curious to see whether expectations have changed since we last did this, especially given that the SP is now edging towards the lower end of expectations.

You know what to do - recommend against the band.

Seven years and counting on May 19th:

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/17/14

And still we sit at:

'April 11, 2024 - April 12, 2024

The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on annulment in Madrid.'

These guys have Phd level qualifications in delaying tactics.

Interesting:

https://shorturl.at/ntvGZ

0.64 Cdn when I looked -37p.

Could be a good day tomorrow.

I've felt for some time that the 35/36p point will be difficult to bridge. This might have shifted to 40p with the higher PoG. We'll see.

As for outcome, 45p and the low end and 65p at the high end. The low end being driven by more cash in the deal, and the high end being driven by paper, assuming Calibre. If it's the Chinese I think 50p will be a lot harder to achieve. The 80 - 100p calls that some have made will really be down to the price of the acquirer i.e. Calibre if the deal is mostly paper. And it won't be immediate; probably a 1 - 2 year or so outcome, which means sticking with the buyer for an 'extended' period - inverted commas given that extended means something different in Condor world (15 years...).

Not a now problem, but Schiff could be on to something:

https://schiffgold.com/commentaries/if-10-year-yields-surpass-5-say-hello-to-qe-and-massive-inflation/

It seems like more a question of when, rather than if...

I'm still of the view that if it is Calibre it will be mostly paper plus cash to oil the wheels. At the moment I'm thinking 2/3rds paper and 1/3rd cash. However, I suspect it could go as low as 90% paper and 10% cash. If it's the Chinese, it's all cash.

Time will tell.

My best guess was April 19th to 26th for the Annual Reports / Asset sale update. The latter is material to everything we do, so I don't see how you can avoid saying something meaningful. I doubt a 'negotiations are ongoing' type comment would work in this situation; it certainly wouldn't for me.

Calibre now have their ducks in a row, so I can't see what would stop them agreeing a deal. The question is whether JM is in the same ball park. Maybe the Chinese are actually serious, and are also working the situation.

One thing that has become apparent is how irrelevant the SP actually is. It continues to drift up and down with daily sentiment, usually driven by people making the wrong assumptions about what is actually going on. At around 30p my sense is that it's not a way off the deal valuation point, and investors are (currently) reluctant to bail out in case an announcement appears. And we all know that an RNS could appear any day, we just don't know which day.

The boredom vs. fear of missing out trades are set to play on.

I'll continue to stay put.

Https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/20882/bob-coleman-gold-now-against-stocks-silver-short-unwind-play

Calibre is still only a guess, but if it is the loan deal closed today. With all the other cash they have coming in the stars are aligned for something to happen.

In summary, IF it is Calibre, and IF Calibre has been waiting for financing to be in place, we might hear something anytime from tomorrow.

I've been at 50p - 65p for a while, with a more recent leaning to 50p. However, with gold moving back up again (and likely towards $2500 before long) I don't think 55p is out of the question.