Member Info for dictumdedicto

Knowing your sense of humour I thought you might have gone for '69'...

My understanding is that you can hold it in an ISA (HMRC recognise the TSX), but you will need to fill in a W-8BEN for divis/tax purposes.

Hit $2065 today, and seems OK circling around $2050. Not a bad background for a deal closure.

Typically about 20c, albeit you can get spikes in the upper 20s, and a bit of rain. The weather forecasts are not very reliable, not unlike predicting share price movements...

Correct. I had completely forgotten. The joy of being in holiday mode in Madeira. I think the TSX is open on Monday so there maybe a CoB release, though Tuesday now looks likely. Having said that a CoB release today is still possible.

The annual report window opened up today. It could still appear at CoB today although my money is on tomorrow, with a possibility of Monday. Something will be said even if it’s nothing we haven’t worked out, know already, or guessed. I’ve got some DS Smith at the moment and have been enjoying the ride on competing bids. If only…

The Annual Report is due in the next few days.

We’ll either get an announcement of a deal, or an ‘advanced discussions’ type note in the review. After months of silence it really is time to say something.

There is always the possibility of ‘talks abandoned; we are raising the money to build a mine’, though I don’t really see that.

I remain in the 50p - 65p camp with a flag on 50p.

Exhumed. I can't see them being a million miles away in 2024.

PoG $1700 at 54% IRR - NPV $418m.

PoG $2000 at 74% IRR - NPV $628m.

PoG $2200 at 87% IRR - NPV $769m

So, at a guess, $2100 PoG would yield around $700m NPV.

If we discounted (I'm not talking DCF here) that by 80%, we sit at a possible bid of $140m, or £110m. Over 200m and we are at 55p. Add a handful of exercised options and take a bit off for taxes and transaction costs and it's not hard to come up with 50p.

Of course if it's more like a 75% discount to NPV you have a different set of numbers; maybe in the 60p+ range, depending on assumptions.

Indeed. Up $30 as i write. The gold market approves.

Not easy to answer, as even now we don't know if it's the Nic assets that are being sold, or Condor itself. It's not impossible to see a situation whereby the Nic assets are sold for paper vs. cash. In other words Condor becomes an investment company (for a time) with its main asset shares in the purchasing company. e.g. Calibre. If the Chinese buy the Nic assets for cash then Condor has a balance sheet loaded with cash, and has to figure out how to distribute it. If Condor itself is sold for paper then current Condor shareholders end up with shares in the acquiring company. Then there is the part cash, part paper situation. A bit of both worlds.

We've also got to remember that possibility of taxes, transaction fees etc.

The reason I go for Calibre (vs. a Chinese outfit) is less to do with proximity etc. and more to do with price. If the offer is either all, or mostly paper, there are ways of presenting a bid as being of a higher value than a cash offer. You can pump up the perceived value of your paper prior to making a bid. If it's cash it's a lot harder to present it as more valuable. You might be able to throw in some sort of residual performance based payments further down the line, but there's no guarantee that they will arrive. I'm seeing Calibre's paper increase in value in recent times. Is that due to performance; is it due to news, or are the shares being driven up through market activity to pump up the SP? None of that may be the case; I don't know. But it does seem like a big coincidence to see a fund raising announcement given all the talk around Condor.

I know volumes were up today, although we've seen this happen before. Yes, an RNS could be in the works, but why rush when the annual report is round the corner?

As for probabilities, I'll stick with 50p. I'm struggling to see it happen below 40p, almost as much as seeing it happen above 60p. But then again, if it's paper it can be made to look very tasty.

If, as, and when news does happen the SP could over or undershoot the value point. I could easily see a 10% overshoot on the day of a deal announcement, quickly followed by a bout of selling pushing it perhaps 10% below that point. It all depends on liquidity and how attractive our suitor's shares appear, if indeed we do end up with a paper offer.

Whatever the case the week starting from this time next week could be the most exciting in the company's history. IF, and it's still a BIG IF, we are finally at the point of cutting the deal. Like everyone else I'm reading things into what people are posting on the boards, what's not being said by the BoD and what might be happening with Calibre's fund raising. The latter is most interesting. My view is that, if it is Calibre, the deal will be all paper and the money they have just raised will be used to develop mines, including Condor's.

We'll see.

My head is now in this range. For the sake of a number I'll go for 50p. Not a an outstanding return for the time I've been in, but better than a kick in the...

I'll start a new thread on this.

Thus far, only an hour or so after starting the poll, it looks like the majority expectation is for a Calibre deal (maybe influenced by the money raise), and a price above 50p. The optimists are currently leading the pessimistic end; about 60%. That may still change.

Another poll. You know what to do.

Another poll.

Another poll.

Another poll.

A tick from me on this one.

Like many others my guess is that the two suitors are 1) A Chinese company, or 2) Calibre.

I think the Chinese will want to lowball for cash, so my view is that Calibre will win with either an all share, or a part share/part cash bid; whether it's for the assets, or a full acquisition. As such, assume a tick from me under Calibre. I think Calibre will be better able to present a higher offer via massaging the attractiveness of its shares at a point of acquisition. Cash is pretty solid, but paper can fluctuate according to sentiment, as well we know. Condor's market value seems to be sticking pretty closely to book value in the absence of any current news from the BoD.

I'm still thinking next week for an RNS, in association with the 2023 Annual Report. Based on last year, it looks like Thursday or Friday.

In the meantime, feel free to either tick 'The Chinese', this post, or 'Calibre', the next one. In will be interesting to gauge opinion on the outcome.