Member Info for dictumdedicto

I'm sure I saw a fleeting reference to there being two days to the Annual Report earlier today. It might have been Yahoo, so don't bank on it. They are of course over a week later than last year already, so they could come out later this week. Nonetheless, I'm still of the view that they will appear around the 19th, or early the following week.

It's taking a breather. Whether that means a pullback (I'll buy via an ETF if it does), or whether it's getting ready to assault $2400 is anyone's guess. Whichever the case I don't think we'll see it much below $2200, even if there is some selling. The central banks don't seem to be ready to change course.

Speaking of gold, I heard hints of $2500 in spring and $3000 by the end of THIS year. Now that would be one for the history books if it happened. Even more interesting was the talk of $50 silver. Again, the drivers are FED actions on reducing interest rates and increasing geopolitical tensions - I've just read a Mail article on the effects of a 500kt nuclear weapon dropped on London. Not exactly reassuring when this sort of stuff is being rolled out: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13271529/What-happens-nukes-start-fall-Interactive-graphic-shows-parts-London-instantly-vaporised-engulfed-deadly-radiation-survive-unscathed.html

Just be aware, for anyone who hasn't seen it, that the ($100m) '...Offering is expected to close on or about April 16, 2024 and is subject to Calibre receiving all necessary regulatory approvals.'

https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-announces-c-100-million-bought-deal-8143/

IF it is Calibre in the frame they will wait until after April 16th to make any CNR announcement, hence my 17th - 26th guess. I also doubt they will use all the cash, given it will be needed for working capital. I could see $20 - $40m thrown in the pot with the rest being paper. At least that's what I would do if I were Calibre.

Of course it could still be someone entirely unexpected, the Chinese, or even a player no one has even guessed. Gold is on a roll and that will likely bring all sorts out of the woodwork.

New tax year.

We might see a bit more volume in the first few days as portfolios are rearranged for the new tax year.

Looks like $2325 might be our end of business resting point today. If the markets are spooked about interest rate drops being later rather than sooner, I reckon they are more spooked about U.S. debt (plus associated interest payments - potentially heading to over $1 trillion a year this year), and geopolitical instability.

The FED is really in a bind. Real inflation is still high, the economy ain't so bad hence interest rates are still high(ish). And yet those same interest rates are forcing U.S. debt interest into the stratosphere. There is increasing talk of debt monetisation. Not a great situation.

I know some banks think that $2500 PoG is not that far away. Personally, if the U.S. debt situation accelerates, that will be an optimistic stopping off point.

Vs. previous years they are late. However, there is still time before they need to release anything. I seem to recall they have to release an annual report within 4 months of the year end. My view is that the delay is entirely down to the negotiations reaching a conclusion. I think there is an equal chance of the deal RNS/Annual report dropping any day between now and April 30th. My best guess is between the 17th and 26th, IF Calibre is our man.

Post Comex close, but Asia could see a few more USD overnight. All good.

I've been reflecting on the March 19th Calibre $100m fund raising announcement. Two points come to mind:

1. The deal closes on April 16th. If there is a connection with this and CNR, then I'm guessing we wouldn't see a deal announcement until after this date; maybe a week or so later.

2. The cash isn't enough for a complete cash buy, so I'm inclined to think a part cash/part paper offer would be more likely, with a weighting in favour of paper.

3. Calibre's SP has tracked up since January, clearly influenced by PoG. It's difficult to speculate on what the paper part of any offer might be.

All assuming that it is Calibre in the frame. We could all be dead wrong on the subject.

I doubt there will be any resistance around $2300, so we could see it sail past tomorrow. I'm looking at $2296 as I type so not too far to go. All of a sudden $2500 seems reachable this year, and maybe even this spring if the bull enthusiasm continues at the current rate.

I wonder if our potential suitors are now the ones pushing for a deal close.

If it is Calibre it does make me wonder whether JM will end up on the board...

I'm also comfortable with paper, providing it is with an outfit like Calibre. If it's the Chinese I want cash.

'Recommend' if you are happy with a paper deal, e.g. Calibre.

'Recommend' if you would prefer cash.

Fair comment. I must admit to having lost a bit of patience in the last 2 - 3 months, and it does look like JM's heels in the ground have set us up for a strong exit price. Having said that, the spike in gold might now start to influence investor sentiment in the gold sector. That project finance that looked so difficult to obtain a year or so ago might now be a lot more achievable.

Could the BoD still swap horses at this late stage and pull out of negotiations to build a mine?

I'm groaning as I type but gold's recent bull does require a re-think.

Exhumed from KWN:

Graddhy out of Sweden: My minimum price targets for the commodities bull are still the same as in 2019:

Gold $10,000-$15,000

Silver $370

Oil $250-$300

(in today’s value)

This commodities bull is the opportunity of a lifetime.

https://kingworldnews.com/look-at-these-shocking-price-targets-for-gold-silver-plus-other-surprises/

In a nutshell, gold in 5 figures by 2036, almost as long as I've been in Condor.

What do people make of this? KWN pumping, or a real chance?

Discuss...

A couple of weeks ago I had my flag pinned at 50p. With no announcement yet on a deal I feel bound to believe that gold's performance over that time is having an influence on the exit price for the assets. Perhaps another 10%, though I suppose value will be heavily influenced by the SP of an acquiring entity if that's the route we are going. If it is Calibre, and deal is primarily in paper, would we reap the benefits of any value increase Calibre might be experiencing due to the spiking PoG?

Meanwhile, as I type, gold is at an all time high of $2277 and still nudging upwards.

Notwithstanding the recent increase in the SP CNR is worth double where we are sitting tonight. I just hope that the deal reflects that. Anything above 100p is a nice thought, but even with the gold spike I just don't see us getting anywhere near. On paper you might argue 100p, but in the deal world I think we remain a way off.

Gold could close at an all time high tonight. Curiosity is getting the better of me.

In fact it showed a high of $2276 at one point: https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

A half decent push and we could be at $2300.

We saw another spike to $2269 today; now settling around $2260. The market doesn't seem to know where resistance should be, and by my reckoning I don't think $2500 is impossible this year.

I dropped in on KWN earlier, after giving it a pass for the last few years. Not really anything new there. Greyerz is saying the same stuff he was saying 10/20 years ago. Not really untrue, but not really new either:

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-worlds-best-kept-investment-secret-is-on-a-tear/

My own view (influenced by a couple of others who appear ' in the know') is that central banks are slowly buying gold to replace their U.S. treasury holdings. With U.S. debt shooting up by a trillion USD every 100 days, I think they are spooked. It wouldn't do to bail quickly lest the markets get into turmoil mode; it's more of a slow exit for them. I think this is as much behind gold's move as any short term trading movements. And gold has got an enormous amount of catching up to do.