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Two aspects potentially driving gold today:

1) Gulf build-up - Trump's 'armada'.

2) FOMC

OK, the price forecast scenarios mentioned in Bill Holter's ('Mr Gold's') video are 'Mad Max' typer scenarios. I, for one, can't get my head around the silver scenario prices, but I do broadly buy-in to the direction of travel. Have fun with it; his price points are jaw-dropping:

https://usawatchdog.com/failure-to-deliver-gold-silver-calamity-coming-bill-holter/

Not sure about the COMEX silver delivery problem as I saw this movie fifteen years ago and the exchange survived. This afternoon's NY open will be interesting, although I think the real pinch point is March.

Meanwhile, gold is up 3.5% as I look at it and silver up about 6%. I think it's a delivery day today on COMEX so I'm not sure what will happen on the open.

Don't get too excited. The fat lady isn't on stage yet...

I've watched quite a few of these, including one where there is a clear acknowledgement that the person/ people behind it uses AI. Their argument is that it's a lot faster to get something out as an AI vs. conventional methods. There are different views on who might be scripting behind it, a popular one being the Chinese who like to undermine the U.S. financial system whenever the opportunity presents itself. As for the content, the vids tend to be too long and repetitive. The analysis tends to be based on one or two verifiable facts, but then it frequently goes off at a tangent, typically culminating in 'end of the (financial) world as we know it' type thought. The facts are usually quite good (e.g. the fact that the Shanghai silver price is about $12 higher than COMEX, or that eligible COMEX silver has dropped massively in recent months), but concluding that it signifies a possible end to the USD is a bit of a stretch. They are worth a watch but I would be careful trading, or buying/selling, on the back of what's being said.

My own thinking is that physical silver demand is very strong at the moment, and silver inventories are being tightly held pending whatever the owners think is a price sweet spot. I think we are starting to see a parabolic speculation driven bubble, which I'm guessing will burst around $140 - $150, followed by a pretty sharp drop; perhaps even back to double figures. However, I don't think that will be the end of the story. Once the silver market settles down I think we'll see the start of another, somewhat slower, incline to far higher prices. A gold/silver ratio above 50 is an aberration in history, and I think we might see it drop to 40, 30, or even 20. If that's the case and gold hits $10000 in the next few years, you could see silver at $250, $333, or even $500. The latter is a 5x increase from today, but if you track back to where we started the current run 5x, does not seem too far fetched.

But then again, we are all guessing based on what ifs, including Asianguy.

These guys always have an axe to grind. Silver, especially at the moment, is in parabolic mode. COMEX inventories are highly stressed, and the March delivery month could even end up in a cash settlement situation if buyers continue to stand for delivery. The problem is that the Shanghai premium over COMEX is $10 - $15, and the physical premium in the U.S. can run at anything from $30 upwards. When you have the US Mint selling Eagles at $170, a $95 spot paper price is a problem. When 65% of the world's silver is processed in China, and there are export restrictions in place (notwithstanding the 40 licences granted), you have a problem. If the physical price in China is higher, silver goes in for processing and doesn't come out. And to cap it all the U.S. government appears to be starting to build a strategic inventory, so what is available in the western world is subject to the inelastic demand of industrial users, and now the US government. My guess is that silver speculation will reach a high point at the end of Feb/early March (traditionally a big delivery on COMEX) , followed by a significant drop as speculation eases off. However, I highly doubt that it will get very far into double figures (from a triple high point) before physical demand mops up a buying opportunity. And I haven't even mentioned 5 years of silver demand exceeding mining output. This is why In struggle to take analyst forecasts of $40 silver this year very seriously, or anyone who suggests that "there is no shortage of silver." I've seen both suggestions in the last two weeks. There is only 'no shortage' if you take into account silver that isn't actually available to sell because its being stockpiled for use, or for selling when target price points are reached (I don't see much of it appearing below $125 - $130). The silver market is opaque and full of liars.

Gold is a different realm. Central banks basically control the price direction, and they are buying at the moment. Circumspection about the USD seems to be driving behaviour, plus right at this moment Japan is wobbling. A few weeks ago I was expecting $5000 by the end of the year. It might even get there in the next few weeks if current interest is maintained. Whether is stays there will then be the question, though I'm not really seeing any catalysts for changing price direction at the moment. As for analysts, most don't seem to be able to account for the Trump factor in their forecasts. Business as usual it ain't. Until they can 'financialise' the impact of Trump's unpredictability their forecasts, and the various markets reaction to it, they will continue to be way out.

The impact of the increasing gold price is and obvious benefit to MTL, but I'm now starting to think that any silver produced as a byproduct should now be taken a bit more seriously. A $100 silver is not an unreasonable assumption, and $125 might happen before long. I've even seen a calculation suggesting $500 is possible in time!

I've been reading the exchange of ideas on prospects for a bid from a large or mid cap gold miner. It probably deserves its own thread. My own view is that an approach is not beyond the realms of possibility, but I do agree that it will likely be rebuffed as too low, whatever it is, given the FCF prospects of MTL. However, it may not be such a bad thing for an approach if it's in full public view. It would likely draw attention to the company, and could well provide the firepower for an immediate lift in marcap. At the moment we are probably on a slow uplift trajectory as we approach Q4 production, stimulated by the occasional progress update RNS. I've tried forecasting future SPs purely based on NPV\DCF\PE etc. calculation references, and always been wrong. The strength and effectiveness of publicising what you have seems to be the key factor in driving valuations. If the BoD are prepared to stand their ground against an aggressive bid, and perhaps spin out the discussion for a few weeks, it could do wonders for the share price.

MTL is without doubt worth a lot more than its current market capitalisation, but not enough people are yet aware of it. That's something I hope the BoD and its advisors will work on as we count down to first (La India) gold in Q4. I know Dupax is on the radar of many, but in my mind the main event is still La India. In the meantime a 1p to 2p increase per month over the course of this year would represent a pretty solid win.

Forgot to mention. Paper gold (ETFs etc.) is not tier1. If (when) the banks are buying gold it will be physical not some fancy derivative with multiple claims on it, or the 'unallocated' stuff. They will be in the market buying physical. Don't be surprised if some start cutting deals directly with producers. Watch that space...

Is kicking in. Delayed in UK until 2027, but for a big chunk of the world it's now in operation. So what? you might say. Well... think gold as a tier 1 asset on a bank's balance sheet. It may not be an instant effect but over the next two or three years you can bet a lot more banks will be wading in to buy gold. I reckon $5000 gold this year, $6000 next, and maybe $10000 by 2030.

We'll see, though I think the odds are more in favour of it happening than against. BASEL 3.1 and all the other reasons people and institutions are buying gold now. As for silver, where do you start?

1. £1.20

2. £2.50

3. $75

Let's end the old and start the new on a positive note.

I'm reading that BofA and Citi combined are now short 4.4 billion ounces of silver (I've not verified this, though based on track records it's probably true). Global annual production is about 800m ounces. China export restrictions on refined silver starts in hours. 2026 promises to be really interesting, pretty much from day 1...

A happy and prosperous 2026 to all.

For anyone interested in the context to the recent highly volatile moves in silver. A teaser paragraph from this December article first:

'How Will Restricted Chinese Silver Exports Transform Global Markets?

Silver price discovery mechanisms face unprecedented disruption as traditional supply sources contract. The metal's 100% year-to-date surge through 2025 represents only the initial phase of structural repricing, according to technical analysis showing breakout patterns from multi-decade suppression levels. Furthermore, price projections based on historical gold–silver ratio insights suggest potential advances to $200-300 per ounce within six-month timeframes.'

https://discoveryalert.com.au/china-silver-export-restrictions-impact-2025/

As I've already suggested, we won't know the true early direction of the silver price until traders get back to work next week. Nonetheless, I think 2026 is going to be a game changing year for silver, gold, and MTL. Hold on to your hats!

My guess is that at 70p the effects of new the shares are already priced in. I'm expecting upward movement in the coming days/weeks/months. Had Rockhopper still been in explorer mode I would have expected a drop, but we are now entering a pre-production phase so market reactions should be more sanguine.

I've applied to buy a few more, although I don't hold out much hope. At about 70p Rockhopper is bumping along the bottom of its valuation (i.e. effectively no value is being attributed to future potential beyond the early phases - my own view is that 50p would be a good stopping off point, 120p in total, until we get much closer to production.) Still, even with a pretty paltry, bare bones, valuation of 70p, a 53p offer represents a lot of free money. I've no doubt it will be oversubscribed.

This whole silver thing may seem meaningless or irrelevant to most people, but it isn't. China's ban will have a real effect, and probably within months. Although it only mines 12 - 15% of world supply, it refines about two thirds. It will take some time for other countries to establish refining capability. In the meantime the world could lose a lot more than 12 - 15% of world supply as a global bottleneck threatens. Above ground supplies across the world will help, but I reckon supply will be pretty tight in 2026.

Adding fuel to the fire, China's export ban ('licences') on silver starts on Thursday, New Years Day. In a world where silver production has been in deficit to demand for at least the last five years calling for delivery is likely to be a lot more frequent. It's even spooked Elon Musk given his comments in the last couple of days.

Fascinating to see the rumour mill on overdrive today, with a favourite being that JP Morgan collapsed on a silver margin call last night. Thin holiday trading seems to be amplifying the effects of traders taking positions in both gold and silver. Meanwhile, Shanghai continues to trade at a premium to Western exchanges. Nothing new here, albeit the delta is a bit higher than usual:

https://goldsilver.ai/metal-prices/shanghai-silver-price

'Asian Guy' (An AI video) is at it as well updating his particular narrative.

I don't think we'll really understand which direction the gold and silver markets are going until next week.

Yep. I’m watching. Still time for a Sunday night slam though. On the other hand could be panic short covering.

A little hyperbolic perhaps, but then again there could be something in it:

https://silvertrade.com/news/precious-metals/silver-news/margin-call-is-a-large-bullion-banks-short-silver-position-about-to-be-liquidated/

CME decision on margin changes does suggest a bit of panic. I understand these are in place from Monday.

This comment in the article piqued my interest as well:

' Knowing that it couldn’t meet its end of day MARGIN CALL in 8 minutes- meaning its legacy silver short position would be LIQUIDATED the moment silver futures resume trading Sunday night – and KNOWING that liquidating its MASSIVE naked short silver position would cause the MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZES, did this bullion bank attempt to save itself from IMMINENT INSOLVENCY by placing a massively leveraged LONG BET on the SILJ Silver Junior Miners ETF?'

I'm itching to see which way the trade will go in the next couple of hours.

Watch that space...

Keep an eye on the price of silver and gold tonight as the East opens. Based on 25 years of watching this kind of stuff the cartel tends to launch a bear raid on Sunday night to set the tone for the following week. I'm not predicting it, but it would not surprise me to see an artificially large drop in silver, and a moderate drop in gold between ten and midnight tonight.

I agree with pretty much all the sentiments expressed about silver, notwithstanding having my fingers burnt by Arian Silver all those years ago. While there may be short term attempts to knock the paper contract price down, I do think that we could be at the genesis of a reset in the gold:silver ratio to a more age old ratio. If this does happen over the next two or three years could see silver at $200 - $250. All of a sudden MTL's production by-product could be a real revenue driver. Gold is heading for $5000 in 2026. It's not unreasonable to expect $10,000 by 2030, during a period when MTL is in full flow. If silver:gold resets over the same time frame, to say 20:1, silver hits $500/oz. Wow... Now wouldn't that be something for MTL's bottom line...

Anything could happen over the next few weeks. If the move is positive in the pm space MTL's price could see a turbo charged move.

Watch that space.

Just as a point of interest that last time in history (according to my research) silver rose by more that 10% was on September 18th 1979 (when the Hunt brothers were attempting to corner the market). This time it looks like a combination of thin seasonal trading and more structural problems in the silver market.

Gold's rise is not so dramatic, but I'm guessing there is enough sentiment to push MTL's price upwards on Monday\Tuesday, providing of course any slamming of the silver price in the next 48 hours does not have too much of an impact on gold. I don't think you can separate the two markets too much when the who financial system is potentially facing a wobble.