Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
You can always rely on KWN to fan the flames. However, in this case they are only repeating what other gold watchers are starting to say. Some perch themselves at 10% above $2350 ($2575), while others (including Sprott) think 25% might be attainable ($2938). As ever the timeframe for achieving these levels is murky, albeit one or two have stuck their neck out by suggesting 2025.
Always entertaining though often repetitive:
https://kingworldnews.com/sprott-how-high-will-the-gold-price-soar-after-historic-breakout/
Yahoo still clung on to 'Earnings Today' despite evidence to the contrary. As per usual no one has a clue when the next piece of news will drop.
Didn't fancy $2350 - bigger fish to fry.
I'm quite shocked at how fast this is moving. At this rate we could see an assault on $2400 this week. That $3000 (within a year) I saw suggested last week no longer looks as unattainable as as it might have seemed a month ago.
Yahoo's app is still showing 'Earnings Tomorrow'. Would anyone know for certain whether they might have had prior RNS notification, or are they just guessing like the rest of us?
Today's U.S. CPI print has but a minor downer on the gold price, albeit I suspect the market thinks the FED will still support Biden by knocking 25 basis points of interest rates in June/July.
We'll see on that one. In the meantime PoG could wobble for a day or two.
An irony of the current situation is that if, God forbid, the sales process stopped due to being unable to settle on a price, we could actually see an increase in the SP beyond what we might have got through a trade sale. With PoG still (generally) on a roll, the intrinsic value of what we know we have in the ground is up by a multiple. Building a producing mine over the next 18 months/ 2 years could mean that talk of 100p - 150p is back on the table.
Expect anything in this mercurial situation.
I think it might track up to around 35p in the absence of hard news. Getting much beyond that may be a stretch, as sale estimate values seem to start in the low 40s. I'm still at 50p, but remain optimistic on a bit more. I'm thinking about a third cash with the rest paper. Any other views on what the offer outcome might be?
Still a strong buy at 30p.
‘Earnings tomorrow’. It was Yahoo. We’ll see. If they are it’s going to be difficult to avoid saying something about negotiations. Post balance sheet event?
I'm still at 50p, with a pessimistic possibility of 45p and an optimistic outcome at 65p. The optimistic end is influenced by the amount of paper in the deal, and pessimistic view assumes more cash. Even with gold on a roll I think getting beyond 65p will be a struggle.
I'm sure I saw a fleeting reference to there being two days to the Annual Report earlier today. It might have been Yahoo, so don't bank on it. They are of course over a week later than last year already, so they could come out later this week. Nonetheless, I'm still of the view that they will appear around the 19th, or early the following week.
It's taking a breather. Whether that means a pullback (I'll buy via an ETF if it does), or whether it's getting ready to assault $2400 is anyone's guess. Whichever the case I don't think we'll see it much below $2200, even if there is some selling. The central banks don't seem to be ready to change course.
Speaking of gold, I heard hints of $2500 in spring and $3000 by the end of THIS year. Now that would be one for the history books if it happened. Even more interesting was the talk of $50 silver. Again, the drivers are FED actions on reducing interest rates and increasing geopolitical tensions - I've just read a Mail article on the effects of a 500kt nuclear weapon dropped on London. Not exactly reassuring when this sort of stuff is being rolled out: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13271529/What-happens-nukes-start-fall-Interactive-graphic-shows-parts-London-instantly-vaporised-engulfed-deadly-radiation-survive-unscathed.html
Just be aware, for anyone who hasn't seen it, that the ($100m) '...Offering is expected to close on or about April 16, 2024 and is subject to Calibre receiving all necessary regulatory approvals.'
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-announces-c-100-million-bought-deal-8143/
IF it is Calibre in the frame they will wait until after April 16th to make any CNR announcement, hence my 17th - 26th guess. I also doubt they will use all the cash, given it will be needed for working capital. I could see $20 - $40m thrown in the pot with the rest being paper. At least that's what I would do if I were Calibre.
Of course it could still be someone entirely unexpected, the Chinese, or even a player no one has even guessed. Gold is on a roll and that will likely bring all sorts out of the woodwork.
New tax year.
We might see a bit more volume in the first few days as portfolios are rearranged for the new tax year.
Looks like $2325 might be our end of business resting point today. If the markets are spooked about interest rate drops being later rather than sooner, I reckon they are more spooked about U.S. debt (plus associated interest payments - potentially heading to over $1 trillion a year this year), and geopolitical instability.
The FED is really in a bind. Real inflation is still high, the economy ain't so bad hence interest rates are still high(ish). And yet those same interest rates are forcing U.S. debt interest into the stratosphere. There is increasing talk of debt monetisation. Not a great situation.
I know some banks think that $2500 PoG is not that far away. Personally, if the U.S. debt situation accelerates, that will be an optimistic stopping off point.
Vs. previous years they are late. However, there is still time before they need to release anything. I seem to recall they have to release an annual report within 4 months of the year end. My view is that the delay is entirely down to the negotiations reaching a conclusion. I think there is an equal chance of the deal RNS/Annual report dropping any day between now and April 30th. My best guess is between the 17th and 26th, IF Calibre is our man.
Post Comex close, but Asia could see a few more USD overnight. All good.
I've been reflecting on the March 19th Calibre $100m fund raising announcement. Two points come to mind:
1. The deal closes on April 16th. If there is a connection with this and CNR, then I'm guessing we wouldn't see a deal announcement until after this date; maybe a week or so later.
2. The cash isn't enough for a complete cash buy, so I'm inclined to think a part cash/part paper offer would be more likely, with a weighting in favour of paper.
3. Calibre's SP has tracked up since January, clearly influenced by PoG. It's difficult to speculate on what the paper part of any offer might be.
All assuming that it is Calibre in the frame. We could all be dead wrong on the subject.
I doubt there will be any resistance around $2300, so we could see it sail past tomorrow. I'm looking at $2296 as I type so not too far to go. All of a sudden $2500 seems reachable this year, and maybe even this spring if the bull enthusiasm continues at the current rate.
I wonder if our potential suitors are now the ones pushing for a deal close.
If it is Calibre it does make me wonder whether JM will end up on the board...