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I've just posted this on another board. However, in terms of RKH my analysis is similar. I'm going to stay put during the expected volatility. Based on past investing you often get a wave of selling, followed by a later wave of buying as the implications of an event are thought through. Ultimately, I reckon RKH will benefit, perhaps pushing the SP up faster than would otherwise be the case. What I have got invested in the FI is now basically a core long term investment. I'm expecting to hold it for at least 5 years, and probably 10. I'm hoping that on the gold side MTL will be a similar core investment, although I'm not there yet. How much I retain will be an early 2027 decision.

Company level activity is pretty irrelevant when you get a global event underway. MTL will be thrown around like every other entity. The only question is which way. The pull on gold is probably upwards over the next few days, and yet market nervousness may well pull in the selling direction, at least initially. If oil transits are affected, oil prices will go up (perhaps dramatically), which in turn will have an impact on general price inflation. Central banks will not be dovish in this situation. I would expect interest rates staying put, or even going up in some areas. Inflationary pressures may well support a continued upward trajectory in gold. As far as MTL is concerned, La India is well away from the core theatre of war. I'll be staying put throughout the expected volatility.

As for the war itself. The mainstream media talk is all about nuclear arms, regime change, Israel and ME politics etc. I see it as a multi-layered strategy. The visible layer is the mainstream discussion. The second layer, less visible, is that the war is about oil. However, my take is that it is really all about maintaining U.S. hegemony, and keeping China in a box. China has been hoarding everything over the past year, including oil. It has greater reserves than the U.S. but they are not unlimited. If the U.S. achieves regime change, it will effectively control oil shipments to China. Venezuela was about controlling oil shipments to China, Cuba was about ensuring that China could not get a foothold on the U.S. back door, and Iran is about finishing the job. The U.S. wants to dominate the 21st century in the same way it dominated the 20th. The stakes for failure could not be higher.

But then what do I know? Perhaps it really is about the U.S. saving Iran...

MTL prices could be all over the place in the coming days. I'm leaving my money where my mind is - staying put. Personally, I don't think my analysis of unfolding events will be good enough to time the bottom and top of share price movements. Sell if you feel you need to, but don't expect to be able to get back in at the bottom of the market ? (if indeed, MTL's price goes South). That bottom, if and when it does happen, could appear and disappear in a flash. It's a tough call, but that's the nature of investing in a war situa

Company level activity is pretty irrelevant when you get a global event underway. MTL will be thrown around like every other entity. The only question is which way. The pull on gold is probably upwards over the next few days, and yet market nervousness may well pull in the selling direction, at least initially. If oil transits are affected, oil prices will go up (perhaps dramatically), which in turn will have an impact on general price inflation. Central banks will not be dovish in this situation. I would expect interest rates staying put, or even going up in some areas. Inflationary pressures may well support a continued upward trajectory in gold. As far as MTL is concerned, La India is well away from the core theatre of war. I'll be staying put throughout the expected volatility.

As for the war itself. The mainstream media talk is all about nuclear arms, regime change, Israel and ME politics etc. I see it as a multi-layered strategy. The visible layer is the mainstream discussion. The second layer, less visible, is that the war is about oil. However, my take is that it is really all about maintaining U.S. hegemony, and keeping China in a box. China has been hoarding everything over the past year, including oil. It has greater reserves than the U.S. but they are not unlimited. If the U.S. achieves regime change, it will effectively control oil shipments to China. Venezuela was about controlling oil shipments to China, Cuba was about ensuring that China could not get a foothold on the U.S. back door, and Iran is about finishing the job. The U.S. wants to dominate the 21st century in the same way it dominated the 20th. The stakes for failure could not be higher.

But then what do I know? Perhaps it really is about the U.S. saving Iran...

MTL prices could be all over the place in the coming days. I'm leaving my money where my mind is - staying put. Personally, I don't think my analysis of unfolding events will be good enough to time the bottom and top of share price movements. Sell if you feel you need to, but don't expect to be able to get back in at the bottom of the market ? (if indeed, MTL's price goes South). That bottom, if and when it does happen, could appear and disappear in a flash. It's a tough call, but that's the nature of investing in a war situation.

I can see gold up overnight on Sunday/Monday, but severe volatility across all other markets especially oil related. I can’t see MTL being unaffected, but I can’t see which way it will go.

As expected, this afternoon promises to be an interesting ride. Whether the exchange will cash settle, or whether the usual rabbit out of the hat is produced, is yet to be resolved. Meanwhile Shanghai is pulling up prices:

https://metalcharts.org/shanghai

And yes, I do think it will have an impact on gold, and eventually MTL. The company needs to do a bit more on the PR side re: prospective valuations...

First day notice on the COMEX today, so could be an interesting afternoon. Apparently India will no longer use the LBMA for gold and silver pricing. I’m not clear what the implications of this is yet, other than the old world of the COMEX/LBMA controlling price is clearly falling apart. No wonder the banks are forecasting much higher prices in both. Q4 MTL price will be a fascinating ride upwards.

For information, as of yesterday open interest on the COMEX stood at 114m oz vs. 87m oz actually available for delivery. Whether or nor COMEX faces a crisis moment entirely depends on whether the open interest people actually call for delivery. Traditionally, most contracts are rolled over, but these are uncertain times and silver demand exceeds silver production for what is now the sixth year.

For information, as of yesterday open interest on the COMEX stood at 114m oz vs. 87m oz actually available for delivery. Whether or nor COMEX faces a crisis moment entirely depends on whether the open interest people actually call for delivery. Traditionally, most contracts are rolled over, but these are uncertain times and silver demand exceeds silver production for what is now the sixth year.

In terms of year end 2026 forecasts/targets, this is what I've picked up:

JP Morgan - $6300

Goldman Sachs - $5400

Bank of America - $6000

ANZ - $5800 by summer.

All major banks are forecasting gold up. I'm still pitching my tent up at $6000.

It's first day notice on the COMEX tomorrow, which explains the strange drop in the price of both gold and silver today. There is likely to be an element of panic in some of the bullion traders today, who have traditionally been short silver. Given the Iran uncertainty, a drop in gold makes little sense when the world is holding its breath over Iran negotiations. The CME halted silver trading for a period yesterday (90 mins). The next 24 hours could yet be one for the precious metals history books, although the CME has always pulled a rabbit out of the hat when faced with stress in past decades.

Watch that space. I doubt Gold will be exempted is silver goes truly volatile.

And I thought my $6000 was on the optimistic side. My guess is that they are long gold.

The transition to a post USD fiat world started about 20 years ago. It’s been a multi-decade process with technological developments and politics influencing that slow change. Bretton Woods to Nixon coming off the gold standard was far shorter a period than Nixon to now, likely extended due to the 1970s agreements on the pricing of oil in USDs. The acceleration of increases in US debt suggests to be that the switch from the old USD fiat standard to a new CBDC system is now only a few years away vs. decade; perhaps even by 2030.

As for silver, I certainly wouldn’t sell in 2026.

Ernest Hemingway, 'The sun also rises' (1926)

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.

"Two ways," Mike said, "Gradually, and then suddenly."

My take is that the U.S. is coming to the end of its 'gradually' phase. It realises this, and is hatching a cunning plan to maintain U.S. hegemony in a post U.S. fiat world. I buy in to the mooted suggestion that it is developing a CBDC/U.S. backed stablecoin. Not the dollar, yet it is in a sort of convoluted way. I don't reckon that it is too far off either. All told, buy and hold gold and silver while the transition takes place. Another ten years from now and you might even be transaction in a U.S. stablecoin universe. We'll see.

The domestic holding is a good chunk of the problem. The Japanese central bank has been monetising its sovereign debt issue (holds around 52.5%), and the investment world is waking up to the fact. All the central banks are at it to a degree, but given the Japanese 240% debt to GDP ratio the problem is that much greater on the other side of the world.

While I've been keeping a close eye on COMEX , silver, Cuba and Iran, I've missed something massive which could (will) have repercussions globally. And yes, it will be a big driver of PoG. This has really only just come across my radar, and only in recent days has the financial press started to get into it. JGB yields are increasing at an uncomfortable rate, to the extent that some are starting to talk about Japan heading for a 2008 situation (240% of GDP debt).

Watch this for the JGB carry trade angle:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7gBmIFyNzc

The real issue is that many JGB holders are now underwater. Yields have risen as bond values have fallen, with a substantial proportion now worth only 40% of face value. In other words many Japanese financial institutions are sitting on trillion plus USD losses. As a response The Japanese Institute of Certified Public Accountants (JICPA) proposed a rule change on 17 February 2026 to allow life insurers to reclassify certain Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) as "held-to-maturity" assets. In other words cover up the problem by pretending that these bonds are worth what was paid for them. The action may temporarily solve the optics problem but it's a can kicking initiative. At some point, I don't know when, the whole thing will blow up. This is currently regarded by many economists as a tail risk vs. baseline, though I'm not so sure. It if does you can expect price inflation and an accelerated rise in the PoG.

That $6000 PoG target for 2026 is looking more and more like a conservative expectation. If I can see the writing on the wall it can't be too long for we get some serious investors seeing the opportunity that MTL presents as a leveraged bet on the gold price.

Meanwhile, back in the PM markets, it looks like gold could well break a few records again this week. The Chinese are back in business, and the Middle East looks like it could be a tinderbox. Contrary to much opinion I don't think either price driver will be short term. If Iran does go kinetic by next weekend the price of everything could go wild, especially gold and oil. And it would have to be regime change in Iran this time. Anything less than that could ensure Hormuz closure for quite an extended period. We are only around 5% away from gold at all time highs, and I don't think the Middle East panic trade has actually gone in feet first yet.

Tell me about it. Arian was the biggest loss I made on an investment in my entire investing life. It was several years before I got back to where I was. Frustratingly, I could have sold but didn't need the money and thought I might as well leave it where it was. A potential £80k CGT bill also had an influence. Biggest mistake of my investing life. The one benefit has been a recognition that you can be over invested in a share. It's pretty obvious advice, and yet even as an intelligent person I still had to learn the lesson the hard way. As for MTL it's a top class investment. Nonetheless, FFS, don't put everything you have in it...

Bear in mind as well that more than a few trades today will be stop losses being triggered. I often see retail investors who don't have the time to watch the markets set up a stop loss and find them triggered. It's not always what they intended despite setting them up in the first place (I used to use them years ago not really believing they would be triggered - I didn't understand AIM at the time). Some of these people will want to get back in again in the coming days.

As with every other explorer\developer I've taken a position in over the last 25 years the sell on news script is being followed to the letter (thus far). Sharp drop followed by a floor being established, followed by tentative buying (bottom fishing). This process can be hours, days, and exceptionally weeks. I'm seeing some bottom fishing already, so I don't think this one will be an extended cycle. A close above a 27 Ask puts the situation on a firm footing for tomorrow's open. My investigation into HEX suggests something in the 50p - 100p over the next year, with 75p a fair bet. A return to 30p+ may take a week or two, and a leap beyond the 30s may take the next RNS being a solid one. Nonetheless, I'm pretty confident it will come. A 26.5/27.5 close would be a good outcome after the drop today. It also would not surprise me to see some insider buying appear in the trades after CoB today.

The price dropped because people decided it was the end of their journey and sold. For others, like me, it’s just the start. I’m an investor rather than a trader and make money by buying and doing nothing other than checking in from time to time. My guess is that you’ll see a bottom today and a resumption of buying tomorrow. An RNS on production stats and contracts will underline valuation estimates and over the next year or so you may well see the SP reach broker targets. This is what happens when explorer/developers become developer/producers.

Whatever you do, don’t panic, or feel forced to sell through short term volatility. Remember why you bought in the first place, and remember that much of the risk has been taken out of the equation.

I knew fully well when I recently bought in that we would likely have a sell on news situation. Most shares do. Give it a bit of time and the price trajectory will change as buyers recognise the fundamentals. It will happen, but won’t be instant. Make money by being patient rather than trying to do the impossible - time the market.