Member Info for dictumdedicto

Sakura,

I am indeed guessing like everyone else. Even the market insiders\experts don't seem to be able to call the silver price. As for gold, I reckon $5100 will be history again in the next few days. My perception is that the $5000 - $5100 area is starting to become a floor, notwithstanding the transient drops below this range. I woulod love to buy more MTL, but I'm already too skewed towards it in my portfolio, and dare not put any more in. The Arian silver fiasco 15 years ago taught me a lesson on that front. MTL is a different proposition entirely vs. Arian, though I can't help feeling a bit on the cautious side given the past.

Cuba has already fallen. It's just that its masters don't realise it yet, and the outside world is not getting much inj the way of news. My research suggests that the oil blockade has already led to severe power shortages, with in most cases only military and critical sites having regular power. There is also a suggestion that food shortages have appeared on a sporadic basis, but are getting worse. I've felt for weeks that Cuba will go before Iran, and nothing I've yet seen has made me change my mind. I'm fully expecting Cuba to hit the mainstream headlines, surprising most of the world. We'll soon see...

I've just checked the COMEX COT report for the 19th/20th Feb and was surprised to see how little registered is left in inventory (88.2m oz). 'Eligible' stands at 279m oz although that is actually owned by someone, and is not moving at current prices. The standing for deliver contracts is are still well over 100m, despite the fact that traders/buyers have only a matter of days left (Friday) before either rolling over their claims, or standing for delivery. This explains the price move upwards in the last few days. The question is at what price will this situation change? My own guess is that having recently reached $120, $85 just won't cut it. Traders who don't want delivery may well wait until Thursday before bailing out, expecting optimal paper prices.

Shanghai opens tonight, but probably on thin trading. My guess is Tuesday, when things in China really kick into gear, when we'll see volatility rocket. I'm not expecting a midnight crash tonight given the restrictions China has imposed on foreign traders disrupting their markets - we'll see on that one, although my guess is an steady though not dramatic upward movement early Monday morning, in time for LBM opening. The last chance for a bullion bank orchestrated paper silver crash could well be Monday afternoon; a last chance perhaps. Having said that I suspect that the majority of the bullion banks may well be long silver, riding the wave past $100. Who knows, maybe that will happen a lot sooner than expected.

The other question is what happens to gold. Silver will have some limited impact. although the real driver for gold next week is likely to be Iran speculation rather than central bank buying. I think we'll see some of this overnight, and into Monday, as the news cycle switches back from Royalty misdemeanors to Trump and Iran.

Whatever the case it looks like next week could be all over the place in the precious metals, with unpredictable implications for MTL. Again, I'll repeat earlier prognostications. MTL remains significantly undervalued given the looming La India first gold situation, now probably only six or so months away. The buying opportunity remains but will diminish by the day in the coming weeks/months.

A bit of fun. I put the following question into Google LLM:

Add pressures on tradable silver inventories in London and New York to the U.S. Iran situation, and the reopening of the Shanghai silver market next week. Given these factors what is the best estimate of the price of silver at the close of business on February 27th?

Answer given:

Estimated Price Outcomes for February 27, 2026

Scenario; Estimated Price (Close of 27 Feb); Probability

Base Case: Orderly delivery with cash-settlement incentives; $92.00 – $98.00; Moderate

Bull Case: Shanghai reopening triggers massive arbitrage drain; $105.00 – $120.00; High

Crisis Case: Delivery default / Force Majeure invoked; $135.00 – $160.00+; Low-Moderate

As for gold:

Scenario Estimated Price (27 Feb Close) Probability

Base Case: Sustained tension + SGE reopening; $5,180 – $5,350; High

Bull Case: Outbreak of U.S.–Iran conflict; $5,600 – $6,000+; Moderate

Bear Case: Diplomatic breakthrough / "Warsh" hawkishness; $4,800 – $4,950; Low

Fun week next week as well, whatever happens...

For the record, and at the risk of looking foolish, I reckon there is a better than evens chance of silver being back to $100 over the next few weeks, and approaching $150 by the summer. As for gold, approaching $5500 by the summer, and approaching $6000 by the time first La India gold is poured.

Thanks.

So for La India we are saying 1.8moz Indicated plus 580k inferred. On a back of the envelope basis the 1.8m could be worth over $100m at $60 silver. Were silver to go to $150 we are at $270m, and at $250, $450m, on indicated alone, excluding all the other veins. Silver, because of its unusual characteristics at the moment (now entering year 6 of a structural world demand\supply deficit) could turn out to be massive as a value driver for MTL. There is little discussion or understanding of this outside of the pure play silver miners.

That's why I keep a close eye on what is going on in the silver world...

Does any ex-Condorians have a record of what the silver potential was at La India. I've been looking for it, but can't put my finger on it. My belief is that silver is going to be far more significant than it might have been a couple of years ago, but I'm not clear how MTL would take advantage of it - discussion welcome...

As for silver and the COMEX. My understanding is that the Trump administration has just introduced a price floor for 'strategic resources'. This includes silver. The speculation is that it will be around $65/oz, although nothing has been announced on this. My question is that if this is the U.S. price floor, then what would be the China price floor? With Shanghai premiums up to 15% more, I can't see if being less that $75, and probably much higher.

Meanwhile, speculation is rife that a COMEX bear raid is likely next week to shake out weak hands on silver, given the rapidly declining 'registered' silver inventory. In other words the banks will force a paper short before immediately buying long to help protect themselves from a delivery notice day that could see registered at zero by the end of the first week in March. Only registered inventory can be sold. There are hundreds of millions of ounces of 'eligible' buy these are privately owned. Unless the U.S. silver price exceeds Shanghai prices, these will stay put, forcing COMEX to take extreme measures. Personally, I reckon they will work something out this month, but it's only delaying the inevitable alignment of paper prices to physical demand and limited supply. Nonetheless, next week will be a popcorn moment, especially given that Shanghai comes back on stream on Tuesday. It won't be rocket science to work out who will buy if COMEX launches a silver raid later today, or on Monday...

It's not clear what a highly volatile silver market will have on gold; different factors are in play. However, if the silver price does crash and rocket, I'm sure there will be some sentiment reaction in gold. Meanwhile, it remains the case that the best way to make money in MTL this year is to stay put, at least until the Q4 first gold announcement (or late Q3!).

Aaaah. A favourite subject of mine.

The Chinese exchanges are closed for their new year at the moment - As of Tuesday, 17 February 2026, both the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are closed for the Lunar New Year (Chinese New Year) holiday period. Normal trading is scheduled to resume on Tuesday, 24 February 2026. You can expect some leaps in prices when China reopens, compounded by COMEX silver delivery commitments of February 27th. Personally, I don't expect COMEX to default this time, but I do expect a big drain on its registered inventory.

As an aside I'm also recently learned that CALPERS is leading the way in having a 15% 'real assets' component in its portfolio. In other words gold, silver, and commodities. CALPERS now appears to be leading the way in investing in precious metals as part of its pension assets portfolio. Others will now follow. It won't take many funds to move the dial in the silver market.

I'm watching the paper price drift down to $70, and yet I will not be at all surprised to see it more than double in a matter of months. As for gold, another 20% this year; $6000.

I'm not expecting fireworks in the near future, but KIST does look like it might have legs in the mid to long term. I invest rather than trade, so I'll be here for a while. As an aside I do like the II and insider investments; it does give me some confidence.

And thanks to the MTL/Drachs investor steer on the MTL board. While it's not protocol to talk about other shares on most boards, the odd mention can't do any harm and can be quite useful.

Thanks for the steers.

HEX looked liked it was good for a punt so I've taken a position this morning. I don't tend to trade. I've made a lot more money by researching and investing vs. trading, so I'll be here for quite a while and may well add if production goes as well as expected.

Any dual RKH/KIST holders have a view on it? There isn't a lot of discussion on its board. I'm not leaving RKH, but I am looking for a bit of diversification while we wait for first oil.

Vox markets.

i'm also aware of the 'punchy' price target of 93p suggested during mid-2024, and the unrisked valuation of 187p. i've not been through 18+months of developments since then, so something could have changed during this time. i would be interested in how this plays in to the 70p suggestion:

https://www.**********.com/articles/oak-securities-sets-93p-price-target-for-helix-exploration-following-acquisition-of-rudyard-helium-project-7a649ab

ddd

OK, so I picked up the HEX steer from the MTL board (Drachs connection). I've had a quick look and on the face of it everything gets a tick in the box. The balance sheet has antique status though, so I can't get much of an idea of current financial status. Many explorers I check out have a habit of seizing defeat from the jaws of victory - running out of cash while on the verge of generating it. At the moment I want to park £7 - £10k in an explorer/near producer (like MTL) but would like to get an idea of what could go wrong with HEX. You don't need to sell it to me. I just want to get an idea of near term risks before signing the cheque.

A drains-up would be good, though even a few one or two liners would help.

Any comments will be much appreciated.

I'm seeing an awful lot of silver 'experts' expecting silver to reach anywhere between $150 and $500 in 2026. My own guess is that we will probably peak at somewhere in the $140 - $180 area, rather than where Michael Oliver sits:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw78V5Er3XU

At the moment I think (hope) that we will stay in a step consolidation phase for a few weeks (say $80 - $100) before moving into the next level $100 - $125, perhaps associated with a strong COMEX delivery.

As for gold, it looks like it's setting up for a slow, steady (and healthy) recovery. I think $5,500 is pretty much baked in, but I don't think a peak of $6,000 is out of the question.

Meanwhile MTL's share price is still languishing at 15p - 16p. With the wind of gold and silver in the right direction, and first gold expected in Q4 (I wouldn't be surprised with an August or September announcement), we could see a stellar November\December; perhaps even a 30p share price as we close in on 2027 production.

You can never be sure of COMEX paper trading, but on balance I'm expecting gold to bounce today and resume its upward trend. I'm watching and listening to a lot of 'experts' in the field, and have started to zoom in on a USD price expectation. As I write I'm now thinking $6500 by the end of next year. I think the 'irrational exuberance' has been taken out of the market for now, so a far slower (and healthier) incline is to be expected. I'm framing this in the gold price, although in reality it's about a longer term secular decline in the value of the USD. The DXY is around 97 as I type. My $6500 target is predicated on the DXY declining into the 80s. On an even longer term it could fall into the 70s, which suggests that gold could be heading to $10,000 in the next five years.

Meanwhile, shorter term factors are influencing MTLs price. Today it's probably the interview, but on the broader horizon I reckon that investors are finally recognising that Nicaragua is not far off production, and that the company is at least a one bagger from where we are. And if Nicaragua is truly exploited for its potential, and gold does go as I expect it to, we will have a multi-bagger in hand over the next few years. The opportunity is to buy now, and sit tight. Ignore the volatility for the rest of this year.

In other words it was prepared to deliver the physical silver to the longs, who perhaps did not really want it - hence the price volatility. I'm not close enough to judge, but we'll probably get a better idea of what the real price of silver and gold is when Asia opens tonight. I believe Shanghai silver stood at $123 when it last closed. If it stays there overnight we can expect London to be up on Monday morning. On the other hand we might see it follow the COMEX. Tonight is probably the best test so far on what the real price of silver is.

As for gold, I don't think a lot has changed. So long as the central banks keep buying I reckon the gold bull will remain intact, notwithstanding paper trading volatility. I'm also of the view that the new Fed Chair might not be as hawkish on interest rates as the markets thought in Friday trading. That remains to be seen, although I'll be keeping a close eye on his comments in the coming weeks. We'll see a dominant view appear in the direction of the DXY. Friday was in positive territory, though who knows what Monday will bring.

Dupax was always a bit of a side-show. The main event has been Nicaragua since acquisition. I could never really understand the amount of time posters spent on it vs. La India. Nicaragua will likely astound with both its production and its potential over the next couple of years.

October 2026 for first pour translates into only eight months to go, which also means speculative action on MTL's share price will probably pick up steam in less than a handful of months.

Gold and silver took a big hit on Friday. I though gold would top out around where it did, although I did think silver might reach about $135 before a pullback to about $90. As it happens it hit about $120 and pulled back to $85. The size of the drop was within expectations, but not the top. JP Morgan closed its silver shorts on Friday in two major waves; seconds in each wave (one was for 633 silver contracts on the COMEX). There is some discussion here in that the perception is that JPM stood its ground in the face of a short squeeze. I

Excellent expose of how the plumbing of the world financial system is under stress. Gold is up nearly 5% as I type, up nearly $250. These are pretty epic times for anyone in the metals. I just can't see MTL staying under 20p in a record breaking gold price context. And that's without the Gulf going into kinetic mode.