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I'm also comfortable with paper, providing it is with an outfit like Calibre. If it's the Chinese I want cash.
'Recommend' if you are happy with a paper deal, e.g. Calibre.
'Recommend' if you would prefer cash.
Fair comment. I must admit to having lost a bit of patience in the last 2 - 3 months, and it does look like JM's heels in the ground have set us up for a strong exit price. Having said that, the spike in gold might now start to influence investor sentiment in the gold sector. That project finance that looked so difficult to obtain a year or so ago might now be a lot more achievable.
Could the BoD still swap horses at this late stage and pull out of negotiations to build a mine?
I'm groaning as I type but gold's recent bull does require a re-think.
Exhumed from KWN:
Graddhy out of Sweden: My minimum price targets for the commodities bull are still the same as in 2019:
Gold $10,000-$15,000
Silver $370
Oil $250-$300
(in today’s value)
This commodities bull is the opportunity of a lifetime.
https://kingworldnews.com/look-at-these-shocking-price-targets-for-gold-silver-plus-other-surprises/
In a nutshell, gold in 5 figures by 2036, almost as long as I've been in Condor.
What do people make of this? KWN pumping, or a real chance?
Discuss...
A couple of weeks ago I had my flag pinned at 50p. With no announcement yet on a deal I feel bound to believe that gold's performance over that time is having an influence on the exit price for the assets. Perhaps another 10%, though I suppose value will be heavily influenced by the SP of an acquiring entity if that's the route we are going. If it is Calibre, and deal is primarily in paper, would we reap the benefits of any value increase Calibre might be experiencing due to the spiking PoG?
Meanwhile, as I type, gold is at an all time high of $2277 and still nudging upwards.
Notwithstanding the recent increase in the SP CNR is worth double where we are sitting tonight. I just hope that the deal reflects that. Anything above 100p is a nice thought, but even with the gold spike I just don't see us getting anywhere near. On paper you might argue 100p, but in the deal world I think we remain a way off.
Gold could close at an all time high tonight. Curiosity is getting the better of me.
In fact it showed a high of $2276 at one point: https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
A half decent push and we could be at $2300.
We saw another spike to $2269 today; now settling around $2260. The market doesn't seem to know where resistance should be, and by my reckoning I don't think $2500 is impossible this year.
I dropped in on KWN earlier, after giving it a pass for the last few years. Not really anything new there. Greyerz is saying the same stuff he was saying 10/20 years ago. Not really untrue, but not really new either:
https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-worlds-best-kept-investment-secret-is-on-a-tear/
My own view (influenced by a couple of others who appear ' in the know') is that central banks are slowly buying gold to replace their U.S. treasury holdings. With U.S. debt shooting up by a trillion USD every 100 days, I think they are spooked. It wouldn't do to bail quickly lest the markets get into turmoil mode; it's more of a slow exit for them. I think this is as much behind gold's move as any short term trading movements. And gold has got an enormous amount of catching up to do.
Knowing your sense of humour I thought you might have gone for '69'...
My understanding is that you can hold it in an ISA (HMRC recognise the TSX), but you will need to fill in a W-8BEN for divis/tax purposes.
Hit $2065 today, and seems OK circling around $2050. Not a bad background for a deal closure.
Typically about 20c, albeit you can get spikes in the upper 20s, and a bit of rain. The weather forecasts are not very reliable, not unlike predicting share price movements...
Correct. I had completely forgotten. The joy of being in holiday mode in Madeira. I think the TSX is open on Monday so there maybe a CoB release, though Tuesday now looks likely. Having said that a CoB release today is still possible.
The annual report window opened up today. It could still appear at CoB today although my money is on tomorrow, with a possibility of Monday. Something will be said even if it’s nothing we haven’t worked out, know already, or guessed. I’ve got some DS Smith at the moment and have been enjoying the ride on competing bids. If only…
The Annual Report is due in the next few days.
We’ll either get an announcement of a deal, or an ‘advanced discussions’ type note in the review. After months of silence it really is time to say something.
There is always the possibility of ‘talks abandoned; we are raising the money to build a mine’, though I don’t really see that.
I remain in the 50p - 65p camp with a flag on 50p.
Exhumed. I can't see them being a million miles away in 2024.
PoG $1700 at 54% IRR - NPV $418m.
PoG $2000 at 74% IRR - NPV $628m.
PoG $2200 at 87% IRR - NPV $769m
So, at a guess, $2100 PoG would yield around $700m NPV.
If we discounted (I'm not talking DCF here) that by 80%, we sit at a possible bid of $140m, or £110m. Over 200m and we are at 55p. Add a handful of exercised options and take a bit off for taxes and transaction costs and it's not hard to come up with 50p.
Of course if it's more like a 75% discount to NPV you have a different set of numbers; maybe in the 60p+ range, depending on assumptions.
Indeed. Up $30 as i write. The gold market approves.
Not easy to answer, as even now we don't know if it's the Nic assets that are being sold, or Condor itself. It's not impossible to see a situation whereby the Nic assets are sold for paper vs. cash. In other words Condor becomes an investment company (for a time) with its main asset shares in the purchasing company. e.g. Calibre. If the Chinese buy the Nic assets for cash then Condor has a balance sheet loaded with cash, and has to figure out how to distribute it. If Condor itself is sold for paper then current Condor shareholders end up with shares in the acquiring company. Then there is the part cash, part paper situation. A bit of both worlds.
We've also got to remember that possibility of taxes, transaction fees etc.
The reason I go for Calibre (vs. a Chinese outfit) is less to do with proximity etc. and more to do with price. If the offer is either all, or mostly paper, there are ways of presenting a bid as being of a higher value than a cash offer. You can pump up the perceived value of your paper prior to making a bid. If it's cash it's a lot harder to present it as more valuable. You might be able to throw in some sort of residual performance based payments further down the line, but there's no guarantee that they will arrive. I'm seeing Calibre's paper increase in value in recent times. Is that due to performance; is it due to news, or are the shares being driven up through market activity to pump up the SP? None of that may be the case; I don't know. But it does seem like a big coincidence to see a fund raising announcement given all the talk around Condor.
I know volumes were up today, although we've seen this happen before. Yes, an RNS could be in the works, but why rush when the annual report is round the corner?
As for probabilities, I'll stick with 50p. I'm struggling to see it happen below 40p, almost as much as seeing it happen above 60p. But then again, if it's paper it can be made to look very tasty.