Member Info for DeusExMachina

In addition to the very positive Navitas Q3 update - two other encouraging links were posted over the weekend.

Thanks to Gardie for the Falklands TV video concerning the Report by the Falklands Chamber of Commerce re Priorities for the Upcoming General Election:

Click on link and pause approx. 15 secs into broadcast. Under the heading ‘A Long-Term Labour Strategy’ the Report states:

https://youtu.be/6sZENGhWljc?si=5NfKOafNogXH5p6g

‘If the Falklands are to make maximum benefit from the hydrocarbons industry and create lasting legacies more human capital will be required at all levels, and we need to address this with clear focus’.

No if's, but's or maybe's. No caveats. No ‘If Navitas decide to take FID’. No ‘If FIG vote to proceed with Sea Lion’, No ‘If HMG gives permission’.

Clearly both the Report and the Chamber of Commerce speakers are "As sure as God made little green apples" that the Falklands are on the cusp of creating a new hydrocarbons industry and must focus to achieve maximum benefits for the FI and a lasting legacy. All good news!

Thanks also to Mogger for his post on Friday evening ! It seems that the Houston based global independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company Murphy Oil Corporation are hosting the 2026 SUBSEATIEBACK Forum & Exhibition in New Orleans. Subsea Tieback attracts 1700+ delegates from more than 30 countries and is the premier global conference and exhibition for subsea system professionals.

They have invited Aleks Armstrong VP Subsurface, Navitas Petroleum Development and Production, to present Sea Lion ! "Navitas will share their plans to establish new country development and scale up production from the North Falkland basin using a hub and spoke infrastructure led, staged development plan."

https://www.subseatiebackforum.com/2026/speakers

So, yet another very strong indicator that Sea Lion is cleared for take off. (The Sea Lion session is cancelled due to the Navitas Board not realising that the Falklands are not part of the Outer Hebrides – is not going to happen).

Also, good to see that London based Ian Ramsay, Chief Operating Officer of Navitas Petroleum in charge of Sea Lion planning and implementation is on this year’s Subsea Advisory Board. AFAIK this will be the first time that a UK AIM listed oil minnow has had their maiden production project presented at the Subsea global conference.

However, I’m sure that this news will not please all RKH Private Investors. No doubt Messrs GlenMisery and GodHelpUs will be selling a few RKH shares to pay for their First Class air tickets – although I doubt that their protest placards will be accepted as hand baggage!

Full steam ahead !

DEM

PS Thanks EG777 for the kind words – appreciated !

Morning CO2 - you say:

'Let’s be precise:

• Isobel (PL004a) lies directly to the north-east of Sea Lion — part of the same contiguous basin structure'.

At the risk of being pedantic - Isobel is due South of Sea Lion - definitely not North East.

I think the Licence is actually called PL04a.

Whilst Isobel was certainly discovered in 2014, the field requires appraisal and is unlikely to be developed until after Sea Lion. 'It is envisaged that Sea Lion will be developed in two phases, with Isobel-Elaine viewed as a potential phase 3 development'. Unless, of course, a new partner with deep pockets joins the JV.

See:

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/operations/falkland-islands/north-falkland-basin/

Whilst AI bots are certainly impressive, they do remind me of an over eager Labrador Retriever who when instructed to 'Fetch' a small stick - returns, tail wagging, with an 8ft branch clenched between its teeth.

DEM

'In any case, I agree with your bottom line : it doesn’t seem like a major issue or a real threat to SL'.

Quite so and yet you still decided to post the link. QED

DEM

Ladigue

I think you forgot to mention that the reason why the article's default languages are Russian and Armenian is because 'Caliber' is the semi official Azerbaijani pro-government media outlet.

Required reading in the Kremlin, no doubt, but of little relevance to Rockhopper investors IMHO.

DEM

Thanks for the enquiry Donal - appreciated. I am reasonably well, prospering and enjoying life in the Thames Valley where the sun always shines. Still reading the Boards most days but having a little posting holiday whilst I look after a poorly family member. Enjoying the current direction of travel of the SP but more than a little curious as to the identity of the 'silent dog'. No doubt all will be revealed in due course.

New Presentation Slide Deck has appeared on the RKH site - very red. No idea when it was added.

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/July-2025-capital-raise-FINAL.pdf

DEM

Because the Ombrina Mare case commenced just before Noah entered the Ark - the 'old' 2006 Rules applied throughout the OM case. For any 'Groundhog Day' action replay the 'new' 2022 ICSID Arbitration Rules will apply.

I understand these did introduce several stricter and more structured timescales to promote efficiency and reduce delays in investor-state arbitration proceedings. Key changes with Time Limits Introduced or Tightened:

Expedited Arbitration Procedure: Parties can opt into a fast-track process with condensed timelines. eg

Claimant’s memorial must be filed within 60 days after the tribunal’s first session.

Final award should be rendered no later than 240 days after the last submission.

Third-Party Funding Disclosure:

Must be made upon registration or immediately after securing funding.

Appointment of Arbitrators:

Parties must agree on the method of appointment within 45 days of registration.

If not, the ICSID Chair may appoint missing arbitrators after 90 days.

Disqualification of Arbitrators:

Proposal must be submitted within 21 days of learning the relevant facts.

Responses and final submissions also have strict 7–21 day windows.

Preliminary Objections:

Must be filed within 45 days of tribunal constitution.

Requests for bifurcation or objections to ancillary claims also have defined windows.

See also:

https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/briefings/2022/06/icsid-rules-june-2022.pdf

'Expedited arbitration procedure

The 2022 Arbitration Rules introduce an expedited procedure that the parties may agree to adopt. They may also withdraw from the expedited procedure at any time (Rules 75-86). The expedited procedure provides a condensed timeline requiring, for example, the filing of the claimant's memorial within 60 days after the first session of the tribunal (Rule 81). While the expedited procedure is most likely to be of assistance in cases of limited complexity, its inclusion in the 2022 Arbitration Rules is to be welcomed'.

'Where the expedited procedure does not apply, the 2022 Arbitration Rules provide that in most cases an award shall be rendered as soon as possible,

and in any event no later than 240 days after the last submission in the proceedings (Rule 58)'.

As clearly stated in todays RNS:

'Rockhopper intends to submit a new request for arbitration and is in discussion with the new funder (announced on 20 December 2023) with regard to the timing of this new request. A further release will be made as and when appropriate'.

DEM

Italy has succeeded in having the Ombrina Mare Award annulled. Under the terms of the Monetisation Agreement announced on 20 December 2023, the Tranche 2 payment will now be €0. (If OM had not been annulled then RKH would have received €65m upon a successful annulment outcome).

'Rockhopper now intends to make a claim under the terms of an insurance policy announced on 14 October 2024, additional details of which are set out below. The insurance policy ensures that, in the event that the Italian Republic succeeds in having the entire Award annulled or in the event of partial annulment, the combination of the Tranche 2 payment and the insurance payout shall entitle Rockhopper to a total no less than €31 million'.

The 'Math'

Hoped for Outcome - if RKH received the €65m Tranche 2 payment.

€65,000,000 = £54,870,000 divided by 643,963,765 shares in issue = 8.52p notional increase per share.

Actual Outcome - RKH will 'only' receive €31m from Insurance Company.

€31,000,000 = £26,170,000 divided by 643,963,765 shares in issue = 4.06p notional increase per share.

Three Scenarios:

1. If the SP of 52.2p, as of June 2 - DID NOT reflect either the possible Tranche 2 payment of €65m OR the fall back Insurance payment of €31m - then the company will be €31m richer than expected and the SP should rise by 4.06p. (Unlikely that Market did not factor in some potential OM payment).

2. If the SP of 52.2p, as of June 2 - DID NOT reflect the possible Tranche 2 payment of €65m BUT did factor in the fall back Insurance payment of €31m - then the company will be neither richer nor poorer than expected and the SP should remain the same. (Probably the most likely scenario).

Actually, as a major uncertainty has been removed and RKH will now know exactly how much money will be in the Bank (approx £50m) - the SP should probably rise - particularly as the Insurers should pay out before FID.

3. If the SP of 52.2p, as of June 2 - DID reflect the possible Tranche 2 payment of €65m - then the company will be €34m (€65m minus €31m) poorer than expected and the SP should fall by 4.46p (8.52p - 4.06p) to 47.74p. (Unlikely that Market would assume best possible outcome).

However - the 'other' RKH RNS this morning is very good news:

Confirming the publication of the independent resource evaluation conducted by Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. ("NSAI") on behalf of Rockhopper.

Key information:

Unrisked gross contingent resources 2C 917 mmbbls (321 mmbbls net to RKH)

Unrisked gross contingent resources development pending 2C 727 mmbbls (255 mmbbls net to RKH)

Value of the RKH net 2C 255mmbbls 35% working interest in Sea Lion is US$1.8bn (net of royalties and taxes at an oil price of US$70 Brent)

Went for a walk this morning. Saw a £20 banknote fluttering in the breeze. Seized it - only £10. No problem !

DEM

For the avoidance of any doubt, I am fairly certain that the AGM date has already been confirmed in writing.

In the 'Full-Year Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2024' if you scroll down to the 'NOTES TO THE CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS' para 1.2 confirms that:

'The consolidated financial statements of the Group have been prepared on a going concern basis in accordance with UK adopted International Accounting Standards in conformity with the requirements of the Companies Act 2006. The consolidated financial statements were approved for issue by the board of directors on 28 May 2025 and are subject to approval at the Annual General Meeting of shareholders on (Friday) 27 June 2025'.

Which confirms various recent conversations with both Sam and Jan Davies (Comp Sec). I think the Start time is expected to be at 10.00am at the usual venue - the 'Clubhouse, the home of Salisbury Hockey Club and South Wilts Cricket Club' on the Western edge of Salisbury - but no doubt this will all be confirmed in the usual RNS, about 3 weeks before - around middle of this week ?

http://www.theclubhousesalisbury.co.uk/

Will be good to see all the 'old faces' once again.

DEM

ps The ageing of the RKH shareholders cohort reminds me of a great saying by Mark Twain:

'Life would be infinitely happier if we could only be born at the age of eighty and gradually approach eighteen'.

'I shall return at the end of June or whenever the next delay is announced to discuss & decide my next moves with my followers'.

ChessGambiteer

Clearly influenced by the recent Papal election - your posts grow increasingly Biblical in tone.

One minor correction - they're not followers - just Security to escort you off the premises and lock the door behind.

DEM

'there should be some news this week from Beacon saying the FPS has arrived' (longtermthinker)

Always enjoy your posts LTT and know that your DueDil is excellent but I'm doubtful that Beacon Offshore Energy will announce anything - apart from to its Shenandoah JV partners Navitas (49%), Beacon Offshore (31%) and HEQ Deepwater (20%).

Beacon Offshore Energy LLC is a Houston based privately held unlisted E&P company formed in 2016 and wholly owned by funds managed by Blackstone Energy Partners, an affiliate of Blackstone (NYSE:BX). Blackstone is the world's largest alternative asset manager, with more than $1 trillion AUM.

I find it hugely reassuring that Rockhopper's partner in the Sea Lion project is Navitas, a company which already has Beacon Offshore - owned and bankrolled by Blackstone Energy, owned and bankrolled by Blackstone with a million million dollars in Assets Under Management - as its keystone partner in both the Shenandoah and also Monument projects. Pretty sure that Sea Lion funding is not going to be an issue.

As I have previously posted 'Navitas seem to invariably share the risk and expense of new projects with multiple well established JV Partners who have both existing oil production expertise and deep pockets. Based on this, it seems very likely that Navitas will want to bring in an additional JV partner(s) at some point. It's clearly their standard business model - unlikely to change the MO for Sea Lion'.

The next few weeks should be interesting.

DEM

Appointment of Argentine Ambassador to London causes stir among 1982 war veterans:

The Argentine Government's decision to promote Chargé d'Affaires Mariana Plaza to Ambassador in London has caused a stir among veterans of the 1982 South Atlantic War given the diplomat's stance in favor of dropping the country's sovereignty claims over the Malvinas/Falkland Islands.

https://en.mercopress.com/2025/02/22/appointment-of-argentine-ambassador-to-london-causes-stir-among-1982-war-veterans

Another box ticked.

DEM

Probably:

https://www.hotelzaza.com/houston-memorial-city

which is a short walk to the HQ of a well known independent US O&G company.

DEM

Alma

I have no doubt that you will be familiar with the following story concerning Hess. However, there will be many of the Board's younger readers - TCM's young friends the College/Uni Kids perhaps - who probably regard the 1982 Conflict as both too remote and too colonial to waste time on.

As you say Hess is a US major global independent energy company, still run by the Hess family (one of the leading Jewish companies in NY) - soon to be taken over by Chevron, subject to resolving the dispute with ExxonMobil over the Stabroek field, off the coast of Guyana.

The Hess family have never forgiven Argentina for the Hercules incident in 1982. Despite pursuing the Argentine Govt for decades through the International Courts, I'm not sure that adequate compensation was ever paid. According to the NY Times:

'A 100,000-ton supertanker, bound from St. Croix in the Virgin Islands to Alaska, reported that it was bombed and hit by aircraft rocket fire 480 miles northeast of the Falkland Islands yesterday. British military sources in London said the planes that attacked the ship were apparently Argentine C-130 transports converted for use as bombers. As of late yesterday, the Argentine Government had made no comment on the attack. No injuries were reported by the tanker, the Liberian-registered Hercules.

According to the United States Coast Guard, the vessel reported that it was taking on water and was listing 6 degrees after suffering damage in a rocket attack. Apparently a bomb that struck the ship's foredeck failed to explode and rolled harmlessly into the sea. The Hercules was carrying an Italian crew of about 30 men. It was sailing in ballast at the time of the attack, which occurred about noon, New York time, and was carrying no oil. According to the Coast Guard, the Hercules was well outside the 200-mile war zone declared by the British around the Falkland Islands. It was also well away from the 200-mile war zone declared by Argentina off its own coast'.

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/06/09/world/tanker-attacked-in-south-atlantic.html

DEM

Navitas seem to invariably share the risk and expense of new projects with multiple well established JV Partners who have both existing oil production expertise and deep pockets. Based on this, it seems very likely that Navitas will want to bring in an additional JV partner(s) at some point. It's clearly their standard business model - unlikely to change the MO for Sea Lion. Offshore fields with JV partners as follows:

Shenandoah - NVPT (49%) + Beacon Offshore (31%), HEQ Deepwater (20%)

Buckskin - NVPT (7.5%) + LLOG (33.8%), Repsol (22.5%), O.G. Oil & Gas (18.7%), Ridgewood (11.7%), REL (5.8%).

Monument - NVPT (28.57%) + Beacon Offshore (42.86%), Repsol (28.57%).

Sea Lion - NVPT (65%) + RKH (35%)

Source:

https://navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Navitas_Website_Presentation_07.2024-Final-ESG.pdf

A very impressive roll call with several interesting connections and some surprising skill sets eg. OG Oil & Gas - Omni Offshore - who are a leading provider and operator of FPSOs.

Repsol S.A. (22.5%, 28.57%)

Repsol, the Spanish multinational energy and petrochemical company with 25,000 employees in 35 countries and 715,000 bopd - who have some old scores to settle with Argentina from the expropriation in 2012 of YPF by the Kirchner Government.

Beacon Offshore Energy (31%, 42.86%)

Beacon Offshore Energy LLC is a privately held, Houston based, exploration & production company with interests in 89 leases. Blackstone Energy Partners formed Beacon in early 2016. Blackstone is the world’s largest alternative asset manager, with more than $1 trillion in AUM.

HEQ Deepwater (20%)

2021 - Houston Energy, a privately held independent oil and gas company founded by Quantum Energy Partners with more than $400 million of equity capital commitments.

LLOG (33.8%)

LLOG Exploration Co. LLC is one of the largest privately-owned exploration and production companies in the U.S.

O.G. Oil & Gas (18.7%)

O.G. Oil & Gas Limited, is a privately held E&P company incorporated in 2017 and based in Singapore. O.G. Oil & Gas Ltd is part of the Ofer Global Group, “a private portfolio of international businesses active in maritime shipping, real estate and hotels, technology, banking, energy and large public investments.”

Ridgewood (11.7%)

Founded in 1982, Ridgewood Energy is an energy-focused private equity firm headquartered in New Jersey with offices in Texas and Florida.

REL (5.8%)

Riverstone Holdings LLC is an asset management firm that invests in the private markets primarily within energy, power and infrastructure. Since inception, they have raised over $40 billion of capital.

And not forgetting the wild card Murphy Oil - a long time fan of Sea Lion !

DEM

Morning Nastynick

Thanks for the prompt clarification. I did misread your post and thought that you were saying that Desire were taken over in the mid eighties. Apologies.

However, according to the Wiki piece DES was floated on the Alternative Investment Market in 1998 - which seems to be several years later than you remember.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desire_Petroleum

I suffer from a similar problem and often feel that I have been invested in the FI for at least a hundred years - or at least it feels like it. As JRR Tolkien wrote:

The Road goes ever on and on

Down from the door where it began.

Now far ahead the Road has gone,

And I must follow, if I can,

Pursuing it with eager feet,

Until it joins some larger way

Where many paths and errands meet.

And whither then? I cannot say.

Like you I recall the Interactive days very well and occasionally posted - same alias as now. I do remember pennypunter and all the other 'colourful' posters of yesteryear. I sense that a fair number are still lurking here and may reappear in the coming months.

DEM

'Any delay is disappointing let’s be honest, I’ve been invested in Desire…taken over by Rock since mid 1980s, probably 1987 or so', Nastynick

Desire Petroleum was acquired by Falkland Oil and Gas for £61million on 5 December 2013. Falkland Oil & Gas was itself acquired by Rockhopper Exploration plc for £57m in November 2015. (Wiki)

I recall Desire very clearly and attended the 2013 AGM on 30 May as described in my very first post on LSE.

I very much doubt that anyone who was really invested in Desire would be 28 years out in their recollection.

DEM

'They find the money whenever they need it, and it doesn't sound difficult with Oaklins doing the leg work for them'. AC

https://www.oaklins.com/il/en/deals/109749/

The Navitas 'make it so' approach to Sea Lion convinces me that if NVPT want First Oil by end of 2026 - then this will happen. Acta non verba !

DEM

Good morrow

Methinks The Globe might be an excellent venue for the Celebratory AGM. Over 900 seats for the serious investors plus ample standing room for the hoi polloi, strumpets, drunks and ledger scribblers with more money than sense. I will be proposing to the Board that all Reports and Presentations are presented in Iambic Pentameters whilst questions must be in the form of rhyming couplets.

I am sure that our Patrons will be generous in the supply of ales, mead and sack for the ladies. Those present will vote on the 'Most Irritating Poster of the Year' who will then be tarred & feathered. If time is short then this may need to be combined with the pig sticking contest.

Fare thee well

Edmund, Lord Blackadder

Or as Mark Twain once said:

'Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.'

DEM

"Iran's Khamenei warns that if Israel bomb Iranian oil assets, Iran will go after Israel's gas assets. Shows the advantage of being geographically diversified". donalb posting on LSE

One small but important correction. According to Reuters:

"Iran will target Israeli energy and gas installations if Israel attacks it, the semi-official Iranian news agency SNN quotes Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy commander Ali Fadavi as saying. 'If the occupiers make such a mistake, we will target all their energy sources, installations, and all refineries and gas fields,' Fadavi said".

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-threatens-it-will-hit-israeli-energy-gas-sites-if-it-is-attacked/

So, I think a statement by a Revolutionary Guard Corps deputy commander does not carry the same weight and certainty as if it had been said by the Supreme Leader. I have read Fridays sermons by Ali Khamenei - time which is now lost forever - and can find no reference to targeting Israeli gas fields.

In any case, such a strategy has some severe drawbacks.

The Tamar gas field in the Eastern Med is part owned by a US-Israeli partnership Isramco (28%), the US oil major Chevron (25%) and a sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi, Mubadala (11%).

The Leviathan gas field, 30 miles SW of Tamar is also part owned by Chevron (40%). As of 2024, 90% of the field's production was being exported to Egypt and Jordan.

Whilst the Revolutionary Guard spokesman was probably unaware that targeting Israel's gas fields would badly upset not only the USA but also several key Arab states - I hope that somebody in the Supreme Leader's team has heard of Wikipedia !

On a related point, the fact that the Falklands are 14,317 km from Iran, 17,813 km from China and 18,588 km from Russia are obscure facts which I increasingly find immensely reassuring.

DEM