Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
trillsg The Illumina MiSeq is a gene sequencing bit of kit, see https://www.illumina.com/systems/sequencing-platforms/miseq.html
I recently won a £40 Amazon gift voucher naming one of them which Sourcebio Sciences had bought, my suggestion was Gene Gray, fans of X-Men will get it :-)
airborne I suppose if you take earlier Covid delays into account then you can say it's a 6 month delay over a longer timeframe.
Considering the backdrop of a pandemic a delay per se isn't a serious concern: it doesn't suggest the project is being derailed by some other process.
airborne It's not a 6 months delay on the EIA decision, the bare minimum time for the EIA ratification was the first half of May, I worked it out as the earliest date around 11th May, see my research https://discord.gg/Uz5cHMcj72
Realistically though more likely closer to the end of May being the earliest date (assuming they replied in 2 weeks) since CMET wouldn't have instantly replied to any objections (there was at least one objection).
If CMET took a month to respond to objections the earliest EIA ratification date would have been during the 2nd week of June.
So we are looking at a worst case scenario delay of 4 months if CMET responded instantly to objections and a more realistic 3 month delay if CMET took a month to respond.
It is dragging on a bit, but a 3 month delay during a pandemic isn't panic worthy.
HelloSanDiego, you are wrong clinical trials involving people always take time due to bureaucracy etc... plus you have to take into account how Covid has significantly reduced hospitalisation numbers.
I suspect the delay for DeepVerge was due to anticipating high hospitalisation rates for longer than we've seen.
Remember it's the Royal College of Surgeons, Ireland involved in the testing, they won't be doing the testing in a leisure center in Dublin randomly testing people, will be in a small number of hospitals (not every hospital) where people with Covid are admitted.
Look at the numbers hospitalised in Ireland https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=~IRL looks like on average less than 100 a day and most won't be where the DeepVerge testing is done and a lot won't agree to being part of the DeepVerge study (not easy to find suitable test subjects, they can't grab them randomly off the street as that would render the trial protocols invalid).
Let's say they figured the hospitalisation rate would be double or even triple what it has been because until the latter part of 2020 we didn't have any Covid-19 vaccines and it was believed it would take a hell of a lot longer than 12 months for the 1st highly effective vaccines to gain emergency approval. Remember the UK approved vaccines fast and had secured supplies fast.
Wasn't unreasonable for DeepVerge to believe they'd only need a few test sites to gain enough test data for approval and so estimated they'd have results to a point where the breathalyser was commercially viable months ago.
You can argue in hindsight they got the trial design wrong, but few would have predicted highly effective vaccines and a fast rollout here. I thought this might happen, which is why I've always seen the breathalyser as a longshot for 2021.
The sad thing is the government could have stepped in and helped out a year ago, but there's a lot of potential solutions for Covid testing and governments aren't exactly known for employing capable people who can see the best solutions.
HelloSanDiego, all clinical trials take time, doesn't matter what they are testing they still have to follow the same ethics procedures, gaining consent etc... and that takes a lot of time.
I think the last news we had about the breathalyser was in March:
>>>>>>>>>>
§ 40 subject breath test clinical trial concluded at Royal College of Surgeons, Ireland
• 16 independently confirmed as COVID-19 positive with PCR tests
• Breath samples were tested on the Microtox® BT nano-optofluidic chip surface with Affimer® reagents ("Avacta Group") and Optimers ("Aptamer Group")
• Detection of the live virus confirmed indicating 9 times increase in digital spectrum signal on the Microtox® BT compared to control
• Microtox® BT delivered results in under 60 seconds from breath samples
§ Subject to completion of additional human trials, the Microtox® BT would be expected to meet the criteria for UK, MHRA's Target Product Profile Rapid Breath Test which would enable us to roll out the COVID19 and other pathogen breath tests later this year
>>>>>>>>>>
So they have presumably moved to the next stage of testing (a Reach RNS update from DeepVerge confirming testing is proceeding would be nice) and should see results soon: soon to me means next 6 months, since I understand how clinical trials work and they take time.
HelloSanDiego The delay in the Covid breathalyzer is due to UK government requirement to have a minimum number of positive Covid cases tested and they can't randomly pick anyone to test. Without those results the UK gov wouldn't authorise it's use.
It's a clinical trial with controls to show the results are statistically significant and this takes months (sometimes years) to complete. They had to get hospitals to do the testing, then have patients with Covid in those hospitals tested with the breathalyser and confirmed via PCR. Consider the numbers who are now hospitalised have decreased rapidly it will have extended timelines.
It's similar to the Covid-19 vaccines. It was pretty obvious by August last year the mRNA vaccines by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) were almost certainly 50+% effective (above 50% was the goal) and safe (confirmed in the phase 1/2 trials) enough for widespread use, but despite a global pandemic they still had to go through the phase 3 clinical trials to completion (gaining enough results to statistically prove they work) before they were given emergency use authorisation.
I always saw getting the breathalyser to market in time to benefit from Covid in 2021 was a long-shot (they started a little too late), but the tech is awesome, so expect to see significant revenue results over the next few years, though for the Covid testing with a little luck by the end of this year/early next year.
Glebewhite It's a Reach RNS which is basically marketing/press release type 'news'. They are used to communicate information the company doesn't have to legally disclose like a small contract that's not big enough to have a significant impact on the business, but the company wants shareholders etc... to know what's happening.
Since Reach RNS's are shared the same way regulatory RNS's are shared it's an easy way to inform shareholders etc... who will be reading regulatory RNS's what's happening.
Read the bit at the bottom describing what Reach is:
>>>>>
About Reach announcements
Reach is an investor communication service aimed at assisting listed and unlisted (including AIM quoted) companies to distribute media only / non-regulatory news releases such as marketing messages, corporate and product information into the public domain. An RNS Regulatory announcement is required to be notified under the AIM Rules for Companies.
This information is provided by Reach, the non-regulatory press release distribution service of RNS, part of the London Stock Exchange. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact rns@lseg.com or visit www.rns.com.
Reach is a non-regulatory news service. By using this service an issuer is confirming that the information contained within this announcement is of a non-regulatory nature. Reach announcements are identified with an orange label and the word “Reach” in the source column of the News Explorer pages of London Stock Exchange’s website so that they are distinguished from the RNS UK regulatory service. Other vendors subscribing for Reach press releases may use a different method to distinguish Reach announcements from UK regulatory news.
>>>>>
Great news today, put me well into profit and looks like the start of something big. :-)
Anyone looked into Meditech and found roughly how many gloves they sell a year?
Hopefully we'll see a lot more news like this over the next few years. Been surprised how long it's taking for businesses to start using SYM antimicrobial/antiviral additive, you'd think with it being antiviral lots of manufacturers would want to claim their plastic products kill Covid.
Gwoods, I'm not missing the trends at all, I see them clearly.
It's a recent fact they have 18 of the top 20 skincare companies as clients, that's great news, it's because they significantly improved the Labskin service (went from a basic cloned skin service at low cost to one backed by AI, a full service at higher cost) and Skin Trust Club microbiome data feeds into this new service.
All that microbiome data has value to skincare companies performing clinical trials, they can pre-test new formulas via Skinlab to rule out bad formulations before spending big on clinical trials. They will also be able to analyse how a formulation impacted the microbiome and use it in marketing rather than the usual 68 out of 78 women said their skin felt better blah...
If you don't see this, you are missing the obvious reason why Skin Trust Club is so valuable long-term. Direct revenue from users of Skin Trust Club, indirect revenue selling the microbiome data to Labskin clients for virtual clinical trials etc... the latter has the potential to make more HIGH margin revenue than the former.
Have to say that's the first time I've seen someone try to spin really good news (18/20 top skin companies as clients) as bad news, very strange. Now they are adding the top 30, top 40, top 50 companies as clients, is that also bad news? I'm sure you are aware there are hundreds of skincare companies and between them they create thousands of new products which require testing.
HelloSanDiego, you said "What I got was that people are expected to pay £25 a month for a test that gives them some details about their skin 'biome', which can then be passed to their beautician. The implication is that it will somehow make them look better".
I read that as you believed they needed a beautician to understand the results, which isn't the case. Skin Trust Club have a database of products they recommend based on results, so the users doesn't need anyone to analyse the results, they just need the app. However dermatologists etc... are seeing the value in what the app offers and can use that to help their clients with skin problems.
Your questions:
- Does that info actually offer the customer any benefit?
In theory yes, it's a new service, time will tell if people find benefit from the app. You'll see a few here have used the service and say it's useful.
- Are the products it recommends really any better for them?
As above.
- Would their money be better spent with a dermatologist?
Depends on the individual and skin issues. Would you see a dermatologist for minor skin issues or because you just wanted to get the best out of your 'normal' skin?
- Is there any reason why the established cosmetics brands haven't been doing this for years if the info is potentially so valuable?
Someone has to do it first and Labskin have been building their microbiome database for over a decade, that's a big hurdle to leap over for a new entry.
- L'Oreal is worth over €200bn. Why didn't they buy Integumen if there's so much potential there?
You can make that argument for lots of things, why didn't Pfizer buy BioNTech BEFORE they created a groundbreaking Covid vaccine? Why didn't Microsoft buy ZOOM (competitor to MS Teams) before the pandemic and loads of people started using ZOOM? Why didn't a company like SKY buy Netflix before it grew so large?
Gwoods, that's rubbish, Skin Trust Club roll out wasn't a bust, they are just starting the service after beta testing.
Did you expect £millions in revenue from a brand new service from day 1 BEFORE they had the staff to handle the tens of thousands of swabs etc... a month?
Potential revenue from 20,000 swabs a month is £18m per year (assuming £75 per swab). That's the capacity they are aiming for in the UK by the end of this year.
According to https://www.**********.co.uk/rns/announcement/8408c738-7051-48ab-88e3-cfb7b1de4949/ their max capacity to end of June was 5,000 (I'm assuming monthly???). At £75 per swab that's £375k in revenue per month, IF running at full capacity it's £2.25m in revenue between June 1st and December 31st.
Takes time to build a business, some of the recent cash is for ramping up the Skin Trust Club service, takes labspace and manpower to process thousands of swabs a month.
Why would they be ramping up ability to test up to 20,000 swabs per month in the UK and 20,000 in the US and 20,000 in China by end of 2022 if the service was already a bust?
We can't judge Skin Trust Club at this stage (it's like a new startup), going to be at least another year before we know if it's gained and maintained traction.
HelloSanDiego, you should spend a few hours researching what Skin Trust Club is as you you've got it completely wrong.
The swab is self administered (at home), a user doesn't need a dermatologist to gain info about their skins microbiome and products which are suitable for their skin type.
What we discovered recently is professionals are also interested in adding Skin Trust Club to their offering, so dermatologists etc... are seeing value in a service which was designed to be used at home.
DVRG have the largest skin microbiome database in the world, this gives them something others cannot offer, lots of data backed by AI. Dermatologists can't offer what Skin Trust Club offer, they won't have the microbiome database to determine what the significance of a particular microbiome has AND won't have a database of products suitable for that microbiome.
HelloSanDiego, You've completely missed the value of Skin Trust Club data.
See my DVRG research at https://discord.gg/frd55mTvaA, here's a bit about the indirect benefits/revenue from the mirobiome data Skin Trust Club will generate:
++++++++++
I believe the real value is in the microbiome data and virtual clinical trials for Labskin corporate customers.
Clinical trials are damn expensive, skincare companies can no longer rely on relatively inexpensive animal testing, many countries have/are banning it and rightly so, we shouldn't be testing cosmetics on animals!
With Labskin AI backed data they can run virtual clinical trials, I'm estimating (educated guess) each virtual test subject will be worth around £500 per test. The margin on this revenue will be HIGH, VERY HIGH.
I also expect different microbiomes profiles will fetch different £ values. I'm estimating the average test subject will be worth £500, Labskin have no serious competition here, so they can set the price.
Consider a skincare company which wants to test a product on normal skin, there's going to be a lot of users with normal skin, so Labskin will have lots of normal skin microbiomes. Now compare that to a company testing a product which treats Psoriasis, Eczema, Rosacea... Labskin will have less microbiomes with that profile, they could fetch a higher value.
As Skin Trust Club grows its user base, the Labskin database gets larger with many more types of skin types and microbiomes. They already have the largest microbiome database in the world, this adds to their data pool: their moat gets deeper and deeper overtime protecting their position.
So where it takes 3,333 users to generate £1m in direct revenue a year, those same 3,333 users could generate a further £1.67m a year if each microbiome sample is used in ONE virtual clinical trial at a cost of £500 per virtual sample.
To gain useful data a skincare company will want a decent amount of virtual test subjects, 1,000 per virtual clinical test probably won't be unusual. A single virtual clinical trial could generate DVRG £500,000 in high margin revenue. These are not one off revenue amounts, the same 1,000 virtual test subjects could be used in dozens of clinical trials over a long-period of time.
It's impossible to estimate how much value there is here, but the fact DVRG have ramped up labspace and people so they can offer the Skin Trust Club service strongly suggests they are expecting to make huge revenue gains here. They already work with 18 of the top 20 skincare businesses and Labskin have no serious competition, they can set the price high because the alternative is pay a lot more for clinical trials with real people and wait weeks/months for the results.
++++++++++
I wrote the above before we knew they planned to be able to test 60,000 skin swabs a month over 3 continents by the end of 2022. This has the potential to generate £100m+ in revenue a year.
2nd set of research....
Gfinty 1p Warrants Update May 19th 2021
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gfinity/news/rns/story/rng57px
Another 16m warrants have been exercised, that takes the estimated 40m warrants down to 24m.
With 16m exercised in one day at a cost of £160k to the owner of the 16m new shares which are now worth around £800k (if sold at 5p a share), we might see some more selling.
On the plus side, 24m left.
*****************************
Gfinty 1p Warrants Update June 7th 2021
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gfinity/news/rns/story/xoz5qmw
Another 15m warrants have been exercised, that takes the estimated 24m warrants down to 9m left.
With 15m exercised in one day at a cost of £150k to the owner(s) of the 15m new shares which are now worth around £675k (if sold at 4.5p a share), we might see some more selling.
Only 9m left. One or two more potential selling events between now and October (when the remaining 9m warrants expire) and we no longer have potential selling pressure from warrants.
We an see the potential drag on the SP these warrants are having, on May 19th when the last warrants were exercised the SP was 5p, now the SP is down to 4.7p (ask prices).
Would support the argument the SP is likely to rise soon.
It's over 3,000 characters, so will have to break over 2 comments...
This is all from https://discord.gg/ZNqMAsxR2q and is easier to read there.
Research from May 16th, there 2 updates to this research on May 19th and June 7th, see 2nd comment (which will be above).
Gfinty 1p Warrants
In April 2020 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/gfinity/news/rns/story/x8gvn9w they issued 225,000,000 new shares at 1p with a warrant to buy another 225,000,000 shares at 1p. With the SP rising (above 5p now) there's been a steady stream of investors exercising 1p warrants then selling shares for instant profit.
This has kept the SP from rising rapidly, the warrants run out soon, October 2021 and that should see the SP no longer being held back.
In July 2020 https://www.gfinityplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Investor-Narrative-2020.pdf
Total ordinary shares in issue: 741.7m
Warrants outstanding: 187.9m
Employee options: 69.9m
Fully diluted shares in issue: 999.5m
They also issued 10m shares to acquire a website, so that adds 10m on to the fully diluted shares: 1009.5m
Not including other shares issued (I'd have to look through months of RNS's for an accurate number) we have:
899,513,248 now vs 751,700,000 (ordinary share that existed July 2020 + the 10m for the website), so that's around 147,813,248 options/warrants exercised out of the 257,800,000 possible new shares, leaving a possible 109,986,752 left (almost 70m of these are employee options, so going to assume these won't be instantly sold).
If there hasn't been too many new shares issued as payments for services etc... we have around 40M 1p warrants left.
Assuming they are all exercised that's £400k raised for Gfin.
Assuming the new share are sold for 5p, it's around £2m in sells dragging the SP back.
If we average it out over 5 months, it's around £400k of sells a month or £19k sold per day.
To put that into perspective on Friday 14th May the sell volume was around 1.1m shares, at 5p it's about £55k in sales.
That's a potential drag on the SP, but it's been this way a while and the SP held up quite well.
This assumes ALL shares derived from warrants will be sold, some will be held, so the above is a worst case scenario.
Been keeping track of the warrants on a Discord server at https://discord.gg/ZNqMAsxR2q and reasonably confident there's around 9m warrants left.
Happy to be shown I'm wrong, you can view my research at the above link. If you spot a mistake in my calculations, let me know...
If I'm right about 9m warrants we are almost done with the downward pressure from instant profits from 1p warrants being exercised and sold. We should see the SP rise soon assuming no unforeseen problems.
Solutions like what is offered by Biobot Analytics is what I expected short-term, from the https://www.biobot.io/covid19 you can see it's not a serious long-term solution:
"Sample collection: We provide sampling protocols, mail-in kits, and hardware."
Sounds like a bloke down a manhole manually collecting sewage which has to be sent to their lab. This is fine on a small scale/short-term, but long-term it will go automated, which means Modern Water unless new competitors with deep pockets bring new automated solutions to market.
No idea if GB saw the potential of Modern Water for tracking Covid and new pandemics long-term and so acquired Modern Water specifically for that tech. There will be companies with deep pockets looking for solutions similar to Modern Water to acquire so they get some of this market.
Has anyone seen a serious competitor to Modern Water yet? Serious in terms of automated Covid 19 tracking in wastewater.
I have some DeepVerge research at https://discord.gg/8TDWN25YjY
I expected M&As as that's how they gain new features etc... so this is great news overall. We now have a breakeven time frame which might bring in more institutional investors.
The 70p placing seems heavily discounted, so a bit annoyed as a current shareholder, though if I'm offered shares I'll buy them at that price. With how low the volume is of share buying/selling the new shares might all go to institutional investors as for an institution to build a decent holding on the open market might be impossible short-term.
I have some detailed research on INHC on my free to join Discord server: https://discord.gg/8TDWN25YjY
If you look into the Sri Lankan EIA process you will find the absolute earliest date for the EIA ratification news to drop was May 11th, this was if CMET management responded to comments against the project (there's at least one negative comment submitted) the same day they'd have seen the comments.
Replying same day is unrealistic, I've given them 2 weeks to reply which would bring news dropping on/after May 25th, so next week.
So EIA news isn't late, it's well within the sort of time lines you'd expect considering the EIA process in SRI Lanka.
That's not a guaranteed date, there could be multiple opposition comments against the project (I found one online, not everyone will put their comments on a blog) and CMET needed a month to reply which would take us into early June.
I'm new to researching mining stocks, so maybe someone with more experience can add how long they'd expect a company to reply to opposition comments?
I've put my logic/calculations about the above on Discord at https://discord.gg/8TDWN25YjY, my research includes links to the EIA document, the opposition comment and to the EIA process in Sri Lanka etc... So for anyone interested in researching CMET it will save them a decent amount of time looking for that info.
Anyway, if I'm right, news should drop next week. #FingersCrossed :-)