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Hutchy1 completely misunderstood you. :-)
ForrestGump I see it as a case of low quality journalism.
I've built hundreds of websites and took a crack at a news site (they can pull in a lot of traffic when added to Google news), those who don't create original news articles basically modify what other journalists have created.
I've tried writing high quality detailed news articles based on sources like the BBC, SKY etc... and they don't really do high quality investigative journalism anymore. They don't do detail, it's mostly low quality quick clickbait.
Look at what happened with the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine recently. The 1st phase 3 data was "was 90% PLUS efficacy": that could mean 91%, 92%....99%.
In under a day it was being reported as 90% effective (the plus was lost), few days later when Moderna reported 94.5% efficacy it was compared to the much lower (inferior) 90% effective BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine and the SP of BioNTech dropped!
My wife and I found ourselves part of a BBC documentary about the Painted Lady butterfly a few years back: I'd shared a video of a pair getting ready to mate. On short notice (a few days) we researched the butterfly for the documentary expecting the people dealing with us would know a decent amount about the Painted Lady butterfly. The guy knew practically nothing about butterflies despite having spent months working on the project!
I'm afraid the media are very low quality for the most part.
Hutchy1 I don't understand why the merger matters for DeepVerge not being named? Why will it change tomorrow?
More likely it's the media are naming the 'groups' who they are talking to about what's happening and the media don't care which company created the kit, why would they care?
I'm watching SKY News right now and they are showing the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccines in freezers, the story here is a vaccine is in the UK, NOT there's a company which makes low temperature freezers. Similar with the sewage story, the story is we can track Covid via sewage and work is on going, NOT DeepVerge makes sewage monitoring kits.
lunsam, I do see your logic and it is a maybe on cruse ships: could make a lot of money in the next 2 years.
The CEO does seem to be a go getter, so if it's possible I can see DeepVerge doing well with a breathalyser etc... but it's still going to be short-term.
If they can get the system on the ships for Covid testing it's a foot in the door for testing other issues found on ships: norovirus for example via the sewage sampling system.
Lots of issues can be detected on the breath: I could see an under £10 breathalyser being sold in supermarkets to see if you are lactose intolerant.
Consider linking DeepVerge with a company like https://www.owlstonemedical.com/science-technology/breath-biopsy/ who have a cancer breath test, but it requires lab testing. Imagine the market size if you could buy cancer breath tests at the supermarket which give instant results.
Then there's potential in testing for pollutants in breath, another huge potential market for asthma sufferers.
I've not researched this area, but some of these applications seem obvious future steps.
Anyway, what I suspect will happen is the SP will act like it depends on Covid testing in the short-term: look at how TW has called DeepVerge a Covid stock. And will only benefit from anything Covid related after revenue is confirmed: like a big order for breathalysers from the cruise industry.
I plan to buy into DeepVerge, all I'm doing is looking for the lowest entry point.
The fundamentals look awesome long-term, so had I bought the other day at even 30p I'd be annoyed at missing a lower entry now, but confident mid-term it will be up.
The short-term negatives are a perception it's a Covid stock.
TW is attacking DeepVerge.
The CEO is arguing on Twitter which plays right into TW's game plan to gain more subscribers to his 'research' and podcasts.
I didn't know TW existed a week ago, had the CEO ignored the attack I might have missed TW's 'research' (doesn't come up on Google news, how I track important news). The CEO has helped TW gain more paying subscribers, the exact opposite of what DeepVerge needs right now. If I were TW I'd keep milking DeepVerge for as long as the CEO can be triggered, it's easy money in the bank for TW!
I understand TW lowered his 'research' price target for DeepVerge to 5p now, that's really taking the **** to wind the CEO up.
I understand your logic Bushmaster, but you have to take into account how governments and people work in reality.
This is a pandemic, we've not seen anything like this in our lifetime and hopefully won't see it again. We are in panic mode, look at the cash thrown at vaccine development, reality is a lot of that money will be 'wasted' with no useable product being created.
If the UK gets the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines they've already ordered we'll have more than required to vaccinate the UK and as you say we won't get any where near 100% uptake. I assume the UK gov at that point will donate whatever vaccines they've paid for to other countries.
Fortunately we don't need 100% uptake, if we get 50% of the population vaccinated where the majority are the vulnerable that's probably more than enough to send the R rate into significant decline. You can't eradicate Covid, but it will get to a point where like the flu we don't see it as a big deal. Don't get me wrong, I think ppl with the flu should self-isolate, I'm talking about reality, how gov/ppl actual behave.
Think about who dies from Covid, it's the elderly and vulnerable. The vast majority of young people are hardly impacted by Covid, yes a very small % have a bad reaction, but if young people cared about their health they wouldn't be having unprotected sex risking HIV, hepatitis and other sexually transmitted diseases which kill.
Covid is a minor risk to most of the population, as long as the majority of the vulnerable are vaccinated the death rate will reduce to a degree where it's no longer considered worth paying billions on mass testing.
I see Covid testing like fidget spinners, it's a temporary fad with a LOT of companies chasing a share of the profits. I've no idea if DeepVerge will be one the businesses which grab that temporary marketshare, but it will be temporary, I suspect a few yrs at best.
The market also has the perception Covid testing is a dead end now, those types of shares are falling in value: considered overvalued. Doesn't matter if they are wrong, the SP of shares linked to Covid testing will decline even if like with DeepVerge it's a minor part of their story. If the market is wrong we won't see this in the SP for 6+ months when revenue is reported.
I like the DeepVerge tech, can be adapted beyond Covid and that has potential long-term value. Long-term value is what I care about.
Sammo375 Your maths is off a bit, it's £350K, not £35K. It's also 2x 10M shares, so the cost is £700K in shares plus a partial share of the Epicstream revenue.
Sounds like a fair deal for both parties, especially for the Epicstream founders as long as they believe Gfinity is set to grow significantly: they have 10M shares each, if the SP only doubles in 1 year it blows away any potential earnings from their site.
I've worked in SEO (self-employed SEO consultant) for almost 20 years and the Epicstream website has untapped potential SEO wise, they haven't even setup a simple sitewide 301 redirect of http (unsecure) to https (secure) which they should have done years ago!
Google is currently indexing the unsecure http version which means they are taking a small downgrade in Google rankings. The https version exists, though I couldn't get it to load in Google Chrome or Firefox https://www.epicstream.com/
Having SEO problems is a good thing as long as Gfinity can see and fix the issues, means there's easy SEO fruit to be taken with minor effort: for example their image SEO is non-existent, so very easy SEO fruit there. On my own I could probably increase traffic by 25% in 3 months just by fixing the basic SEO issues and training their content creators how to do basic SEO.
They only have 3,000 Twitter followers, (I have unused Twitter accounts with 5x that number of followers) they should be able to generate more traffic from social media channels, currently their Tweets lack likes/retweets.
All good news as long as Gfinity understand SEO and have ppl to fix the issues.
OK123 Do you think most potentially LARGE shareholders are on Twitter checking a CEO's Tweets for indications of possible future revenue?
I'm a small investor and I don't work that way, I go through a companies revenue reports because they are official/legal documents the company are liable for, despite how Trump uses Twitter to run the US it's not how credible businesses inform us of what's going on financially.
I've only read a handful of the CEO's Tweets recently, for official notification of revenue I and most potential investors will be looking here: https://www.deepverge.com/investors/ and DeepVerge publish just 2 results a year, 6 month interim and full year results.
Personally I like to see quarterly results.
Based on my research so far I'd say DeepVerge is undervalued with great potential, but that doesn't mean the SP will go up. For it to go up more ppl need to buy in and I doubt the ppl who might buy are checking Twitter for DeepVerge revenue news.
If you watched the latest webinar live (I think 250-300 viewed it) it was interesting so many in the comments wanted info about 2021 revenue which they won't give out over a webinar: clearly it was retail investors who don't fully understand how this all works asking questions about future revenue guidance. It was also the wrong format for major investors, that was for retail investors like us. Major investors expect some exclusivity in being able to ask questions with retail investors ignored: I'm OK with that, all I care about is the SP goes up overtime.
Decided to check the CEOs Tweets before sending this, found: https://twitter.com/gjbrandon/status/1334535183945650182
Hilarious, BUT not what I want to see from a CEO, gives a perception of time wasting: if they are making lots of unimportant Tweets they aren't running the business. Not saying that's the case, it's perception.
Did find a useful Tweet about guidance being shared in 2021, so now I know there's no rush to buy in. I can wait at least a few days to see if the downtrend heads to 20p, if it does I'm buying.
Bushmaster: Covid-19 is short-term, a few years from now it will be under control just like flu is under control.
We don't expect ppl to use a flu test before getting on a plane for example even though the flu kills tens of thousands each year! So why in a few years time would ppl be expected to pay extra to test if they are the one in a thousand still passing Covid-19 on?
There is of course the risk Covid-19 mutates heavily like the flu, but even there for most of the time immunity acquired from earlier infections/vaccinations will help reduce the impact overall, so it's highly unlikely to ever be as bad as it is now.
That doesn't mean they can't sell millions of breathalysers in the short-term, there's a lot of competition in the covid-19 testing sector and some are already to market, but they do have the USP of it being non-invasive: I'd rather blow into a breathalyser vs having a swab rammed down my throat! So could be something they make millions from or a bit of a flop: I've no idea. I do agree the CEO seems to be good at making things happen, so can understand your positivity.
That being said, the tech behind the breathalyser could be used for a lot of health issues and this time next year DeepVerge will have all the bugs etc... sorted ready for the next pandemic and anything else which the tech can be used for. Could be big revenue long-term.
I studied genetics at Uni with a view to working on the HIV virus, so I'm way above a layman's understanding of how diseases progress etc... and with the mRNA vaccine reporting 95% efficacy it's only s a matter of time before it's under control and we'll start to drift back to normal. Assuming you get the vaccine in the next 3 months will you start to go back to normal by next summer? I will.
I'm looking to buy in soon, was very tempted a couple of days ago, which in hindsight would have been a mistake, fortunately I have a problem buying a share which recently increased over 40% (20p to 28p is a big jump in a week). I'll probably be waiting for a short-term bottom which I'm hoping is around 20p again.
I see it like lunsam explained below, I don't see the breathalyser as a short-term catalyst for the SP, there's a perception anything related to Covid testing is short-term/too late and even if they manage to sell millions it probably won't have an impact until they've confirmed they've sold millions. #ShowMeTheMoney
I won't be investing for the breathalyser, though I can see the long-term potential with other health conditions which can be detected via breath, so another potential big revenue generator.
My interest is how the CEO has pulled together LabSkin, ModernWater and RhinoCloud together in a short period of time: what's next?????
The combination is exciting, so much potential that the SP should be multiples of where it is now in a year or two.
I'm surprised this one hasn't already gone out of reach (where I feel comfortable investing). All I have to do now is decide when to buy in. Look for a short-term bottom or wait for the next interim/full results and buy a few weeks before the release.
Hmm, they only do 2 results updates a year which would mean waiting until June 2021 before full 2020 revenue is confirmed. With so much happening they really should move to quarterly results to help build momentum: we are a fickle lot and waiting 6 months for out of date revenue confirmation is a long time to wait.
Deepverge and DeepMind aren't connected businesses, they both have the word Deep in their names and happen to be in the AI sector.
DeepMind is all about AI.
DeepVerge includes AI as part of it's business.
All AI is is software which can analyse and predict things so humans spend less time analysing and predicting things.
For DeepVerge AI can be used to analyse various drug configurations and rule many out so their potential clients don't waste time/money testing them. Can also be used for monitoring changes in water quality, for example with enough data points it can probably be used to track Covid outbreaks.
AI takes the DeepVerge offering to the next level, clients could buy LabSkin for example and have their own AI analyse results, but that requires the client to have an AI and lots of data, so for potential clients it's a shortcut to faster results.
Similar with testing water, look at the mess the UK gov is in with the Covid track and trace program, building these things from scratch can take years to perfect, so if DeepVerge build a robust water tracking system their customers will want it vs building their own.
It's easy to understand.
SYME for dummies.
Some businesses have to hold large inventories of stock, when money is in stock it can't be used to buy more inventory, invest in growth etc...
Currently to raise money businesses can borrow money from a bank, that's debt and looks bad on the balance sheet.
They can dilute shares (sell more shares) which ****es us off.
They can borrow against their inventory through a bank which is very expensive and is still a debt and looks bad on the balance sheet.
SYME is a platform which brings together investors (money) and businesses with a lot of inventory.
The investors temporarily 'buy' a businesses inventory for 3 years.
This is considered a sale of goods (VAT is charged), so it's not a debt, so doesn't look bad on the balance sheet.
The inventory stays with the business and over 3 yrs pays about 8% 'interest' of the value of the inventory. After 3yrs they buy the inventory back and that's the end of the transaction.
The business gains access to money normally locked away as inventory, investors earn a steady income.
SYME gets a share of the 8% at no direct risk to SYME or it's shareholders, the investors take all the risk because SYME is a platform bringing investors and businesses together.
The potential here is huge, there's £tn's locked away in inventory and SYME have little to no competition. SYME could grow 100X plus in size in a few years, BUT being new there's going to be delays/issues, so be patient.
That's the dumbed down version most should understand.
No problem Miagi365, if you ever need more great advice just ask away.
Made my first trade in the 90s (got me through Uni), so though I don't consider myself an experienced trader (didn't take it seriously) I've risked a lot of money on shares over the past 30 years.
Now I'm taking it seriously with serious cash I'm willing to lose.
Even though you are likely to blame me if my advice is wrong, I'm happy to keep on advising you :-)
Real shame this BB doesn't have emojis :-) :-) :-) :-)
This gets funnier, Miagi365 has gone from blaming JW to saying SO4 owes him and other PIs. What's next, will he be blaming Mystic Meg for not warning him of this in his horoscope :-)
I bet he wouldn't be sending JW or SO4 a share of his profits had the SP doubled this week instead of declining.
You decided to buy, you decided to sell. We all make bad decisions (one of those is a bad decision), learn from it and move on.
I'm contemplating buying next week, around 25p looks like a good price, if it goes to 20p it's hard to not buy considering the mid-term potential.
If I buy in and the SP tanks it's me who made the wrong choice and my wife who can use it against me for years and years to come. #BigBoyPantsTime
Don't be too harsh on TW, you can always trust a climate change denier to give a balanced and fair view of a business whose main focus is commercialising cutting edge science.
Clearly TW is on top of the science behind DeepVerge and can see it's enormous long-term potential/value and just wants in on the action by worrying concerned investors so much they paid to access the article.
I wonder how much he'll make trashing DeepVerge? I suppose it's one way to make a living!
roleybirkin why would it be surprising the MM's would buy your shares?
What a weird view to hold.
It's a MARKET based on supply and demand with middle men. There's no case of the market makers not wanting shares, only a case of how much they'll pay for them.
I bought some Bidstack shares last week, so thanks for them.
I haven't read his article (behind a paywall), but if the argument the SP was overpriced at 50p because of a Covid-19 test he's probably right in the short-term.
With vaccines on the way Covid-19 testing will wane in a couple of years and there's been a lot of companies bringing out Covid tests, most won't make a profit in that sector.
It's the science/tech which is important, that's got serious value when combined with AI. Consider the potential of being able to monitor water in almost real time for hundreds of pathogens etc... a country could be ready for the next pandemic.
If the tech is added to a sewerage system there's so many applications from tracking drug use in a city to how a disease is progressing. Then there's the skin that's better than the competition which they are commercialising better. Take either one of those products and you can see a potential winner long-term and they have both!
The collaborations are interesting, since the new CEO came onboard they are running things in a completely different way. They've gone from collaborating with companies to merging them into the group, what's coming next, it's exciting!
I have a science background, studied genetics at uni with a goal to working in HIV research, couldn't follow that career path (health issues). I get excited at companies pulling tech/science together in a lateral thinking way.
If I wasn't so cheap I'd have already bought in and ignored the short-term price.
That explains the drop today on good news.
I've been thinking about investing for a week (SP was closer to 20p), but by the time I'd done the research the SP was past 25p and I hate buying after a 25% move up, so was hoping for a pullback.
Sucks for current holders, but if it drops on one person Tweeting I can get in at a better price next week.
The CEO seems very credible and I like how they are pulling together different tech to multiply value, so much potential. All I need now is a bargain entry price.
Miagi365 I don't do small on anything and if I lose tens of thousands it's because I made the wrong decisions. You've spent half a day *****ing about JW because you followed his advice and lost money.
You sound like a complete newbie who has never lost money, surely you did your own research so it was your mistake, own it.
I'm up around 20% since May (when I decided to take this seriously), what about you?
Miagi365 LOL, that was on a minor 0.01p move of a share: it was funny. That share (SYME) was up over £1,000 for me earlier today, now up £684 on a 0.05p increase (was up 0.10p earlier).
Glad you spent your time reading my posts for ammo. To save you time try multiplying by 1,000 and you are close to my portfolio. #SAD
Difference between you and I is I don't panic sell BEFORE understanding what's happening. SP could recover 1st thing Monday morning if the issues are minor.
I'll also never seriously complain at a loss and try to blame it on someone else because I followed their trades. I bought Gfinity recently, down about £300 at close today, I don't blame JW for my timing: had I bought today I'd have got them £300 cheaper.
We can't compare Buffett to retail investors like us, there's no comparison.
I could put my entire portfolio into SO4 and at best it will have a very minor impact on that day because all though this is small cap I'm a tiny fish in a small pond. I try to have my starting point around 10% of total portfolio, this amount won't be noticed if I buy/sell.
Buffet on the other hand is investing millions, his firm makes small markets move. If investors of that size tried to do what I suggest on a share like SO4 or even something bigger like Boohoo it would move the market, Buffett can't pull money in/out like you and I can they have to hold for big long-term gains. Moment they sell a small cap share the SP tanks.
To be clear if I started with £5K in SO4 at say 25p and the SP steadily grows to 50p (no big spikes) I won't touch it: in a perfect world I'll see no spikes just steady long-term growth. If it starts to quickly spike and looks overbought I'll pull some out, possibly up to 25%. If the SP pulls back I'll look to buy back in to have a similar or more shares than before whilst keeping some profits. As long as the company looks good I'll keep doing this.
I'm looking for long-term investments, not to just hold no matter what.
BTW if you are a hold, hold, hold investor why have you sold the lot today? The SO4 story still looks good, give it a year and the SP should be way above 30p, I'd have sat on my hands and took the short-term hit.
This quote comes to mind: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."