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So helx, are you still predicting the SP to go to 4p?
In the short-term (few months) seems unlikely to go below 6p from here, would take bad news to pull it down and that's unlikely short-term.
Girdz I'm hoping for closer to £2M as well, you can never be sure until confirmed though.
Couple of weeks back there was a Gfinity RNS which said 2 founders of a website they were buying would get 10M shares each. Was wrote in plain English, 10M shares each, except it was a mistake, it was 5M each.
You have to remember these are small companies and they make mistakes in grammar which can be easily misunderstood.
I read the Bidstack RNS "it is on track to exceed market expectations" as they haven't exceeded £1.5M today but will in 2 weeks time, but it could simply be sloppy use of language and they've already surpassed £1.5M.
Could also mean to exceed market expectations that's got to go 10% above £1.5M: we generally take on target as within 10%, so on target would be between £1.35M and £1.65M, so to exceed expectations it's more than £1.65M. So they could be at £1.6M today and the "it is on track to exceed market expectations" won't be fulfilled until revenue is above £1.65M.
It is so easy to misinterpret these things.
Oh my, the army have worked out disinfectants kill viruses.
I've been making my own disinfectant sprays for 30 years, it's easy. Buy a cheap bottle of disinfectant from any supermarket, buy a plastic spray bottle. Add a diluted solution of disinfectant into spray bottle, spray on surfaces and wipe.
Next they'll be telling us how to wash or hands with soap and hot water.....
Now we get to speculate for a month of how good is good. :-)
Market expectations are £1.5M, so must be 10% above that: so the low estimates will be around £1.7M+...
The wording could be important:
"Bidstack Group Plc (AIM: BIDS.L), the native in-game advertising platform, is pleased to report that, subject to audit, it is on track to exceed market expectations in respect of revenues for the year ending 31 December 2020."
It is on TRACK to exceed....
That can be read as it's not exceeded expectations yet, but they are confident within the next 14 days they will exceed expectations.
If today revenue is at £1.4M they couldn't say we have exceeded, so that would suggest in the next 14 days they'll create revenue of £300K+ (taking us to the minimum £1.7M worthy of an RNS).
IF (big IF) the monthly revenue is inline with the above it's around £600K a month going forward assuming it's not a big Christmas spike which dries up in January, that would equate to revenue of over £7M next year if revenue doesn't increase/decrease.
It SHOULD increase as more games and advertising channels come online, so looking very good with the above fag packet calculations.
Or the on track bit is being overly cautious since it's unaudited and they've already passed £1.5M in which case it could be even better.
Speculate away, it's free... :-)
That's what we've all been waiting for.
#Kerching......
Burt2000 Just over 50% of shares are held by PIs, ~18% insiders, 26% IIs.
PI's tend to be less sticky vs IIs, so there should be plenty of liquidity WHEN (being confident here :-)) IIs start to buy up more shares.
If you are looking to hold long I suggest that's good news, as IIs load up on PIs selling the SP should rise steadily rather than big jumps and falls you might see when most shares are already held by IIs.
Compare DeepVerge to say Boohoo which was 30p a share back in 2015, it's now 300p a share with 50% IIs, 12% PIs. Now most of Boohoo shares are tightly held with a relatively small amount of Pi shares the SP sees some huge swings.
I'd be very happy with a steadily climbing SP with only small periods of overbought/consolidation periods for a couple of years like what happened with Boohoo between 2015 and 2017.
Not suggesting DeepVerge and Boohoo is anything alike company wise, the Boohoo relatively steady SP growth of 2015-2017 is hopefully what we'll see with DeepVerge (assuming the great revenue growth continues for a few years).
That being said I think Boohoo revenue growth % wise in 2015-2017 is lower than what DeepVerge is seeing this year and hopefully next year, so you never know we could see the DeepVerge SP breaking into the multiple £ range in a few years. I bought into DeepVerge because I see the potential of multiple times current SP, 10X in 2-3 years would be exceptional performance. :-)
Can only imagine how tempting it must have been for Boohoo to say something like:
'FFS, we make and sell clothes employing tens of thousands of workers around the world, it's not our job to police the living wage or check if OTHER businesses are ripping off the VAT man! You've made it clear illegal practices were well known in the Leicester area for years, so why the feck haven't YOU done your jobs and fixed it? Isn't that what the millions in taxes we've paid supposed to be used for?'
Unfortunately, had they said anything like that it would have backfired badly.
Of course Boohoo have a responsibility to be responsible in who they work with, but this is expecting a business to act like investigative journalists digging for wrongdoing through the bins at the back of factories!
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/2425b417-ad43-4885-8a8e-9c47c48d2698
I've watched a lot of Parliamentary select committee (lots about Brexit and politics generally) and they are so boring.
When the Boohoo chairman is questioned it will be interesting to see if the questioning is as 'interesting'. If it is the Guardian etc will have to dig deep for a good soundbite or two for their clickbait this weekend.
Chesh I wasn't giving advice, I was describing a risk management strategy a lot of investors deploy to derisk an investment overtime.
I bought Bids a little early because I guesstimated a revenue RNS by now (best guess was last Tuesday or this Tuesday, so I was wrong).
The SP today is pretty much the same as when I bought a month ago (5.5p), so no harm done. I'm happy at 5.5p.
Anyway, some are speculating an RNS exactly one year after the last revenue warning RNS, if that happens and it isn't good news I can't see that going down well with shareholders who have been on a loss for a year plus. That would be in really bad taste if it's bad news, so I can't see it happening unless it's good news.
Based on how bad it was last year I will be surprised if there's no RNS with revenue guidance this year.
Whatever they do they really need to work on their marketing/communications skills, it can't look good when potential partners (game developers etc...) are doing their due diligence and they find their way to the Bidlievers site.
Chesh To derisk is if the SP (share price) jumps up a lot in a short period time: say jumps from 30p to 60p in a week or so, you might consider selling 25% of your holdings and watch for a SP pullback to buyback in the 25% at a lower price.
Get the timing right and over the course of time (months/years) you could pull out your initial investment whilst maintaining or even increasing total shares held.
It's only worth doing on big SP jumps or where you think the SP is overbought and likely to go into short-term decline to rectify the overbought SP. It's a risk, what if it went from 30p to 60p in a week or so, you sell 25% at 60p, but the SP didn't pull back and a week or two later goes to 80p and then pulls back to 70p and consolidates the gains. To buy back the 25% of shares means paying another 10p per share.
I'd prefer the SP to steadily climb and I do nothing, I don't like big ups/downs, but when there are big ups there tends to be a down soon after, so it's good money management to have a plan in advance.
Chesh I don't ramp shares, period.
Plan to hold for years as long as the story looks good. Looks great right now.
If the SP jumps a lot quickly I'll derisk before consolidation, but will keep the majority until it looks like the growth will slow to a crawl. By then there might be a dividend or a buy out, so that's a decision for another year.
I do like small cap companies where you can see a reason to hold for 5 years. All my small cap investments are ideally 3-5 year holds: #DVRG, #SYME, #GFIN, #BIDS, #SYM.
Speaking of #SYM (Symphony Environmental Technologies), if you are reading this Gerry you should look at their antimicrobial plastic additive (it's a batch additive). It's like Microban, but where Microban isn't antiviral, their product is: been tested on bovine coronavirus: 99.9% destroying in 1hr.
Might be a good collaboration partner, for example adding the additive to the plastic parts of the breathalyser would mean any microbe would be killed in an hour after use reducing the perception the kit is a health hazard after use.
They also have a biodegradable plastic additive, the breathalysers will find their way into oceans etc, their additive would make them biodegrade after say 2 years.
Chesh It could still go closer to 20p on low volumes over Christmas, BUT the story is looking way too good to wait for revenue guidance next year: pretty obvious revenue guidance will be very good.
Would have been nice to get in at 20p-22p (I love a bargain :-)), but at 24.5p average I think it will be a very good entry when I look back in a year or two.
Just doubled my DVRG investment to 10% of portfolio, that's my max for a long-term hold.
I was looking for a lower price (closer to 20p) for the second half of my investment, but FOMO is way too strong with a CEO very proactive on marketing here/Twitter... can see the SP heading back to 30p soon and around 25p is a fair price based on what's coming.
Looking forward to revenue guidance for next year.
I really should promote the shares I'm holding long-term, my personal Twitter account https://twitter.com/DavidLaw has almost 40K followers. Funny thing is I've worked in online marketing for almost 20 years, but find ramping distasteful/annoying. :-)
No problem Burt2000, all those years studying genetics at Uni finally useful :-)
I find it really annoying having knowledge/ideas with no mechanism to share, had a simple and cheap idea 9+ months ago to curb Covid-19 globally, if it worked the pandemic could be under control by now.
There's no serious place to share those types of theories even when they are scientifically sound.
Burt2000 Doesn't quite work that way.
DeepVerge are working with Aptamer Group who create synthetic molecules (called aptamers) which can bind to specific molecules. Consider it like a lock and key or specific shape which fits in a specific hole.
In this case the synthetic molecule will bind to the Covid-19 virus. It's explained here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxiq4UQi_hE
Not sure what specifically the synthetic molecule binds to, it could be the spike protein or could be the spike protein and other proteins specific to the virus: doesn't have to be one protein they detect.
If they are detecting the spike protein and the spike protein mutates to a degree where the shape changes the aptamer synthetic molecule might not detect it any longer (the key no longer fits the lock). I assume DeepVerge will be looking to confirm that's not the case.
If it has changed significantly they'd need to detect both variants of the spike protein, so would need a second aptamer to catch both variants.
If I had to make a guess the shape probably hasn't changed significantly, the spike protein is important for binding to cells to infect them, so big changes can impact how effective the virus is.
Right now they'll be sequencing the virus to see how it's evolving at the genetic level, the DeepVerge tech is more of a blunt instrument: the virus is either there or not there, detecting specific strains is probably not practical AND probably not what they want: you'd want the test to pick up ALL strains, not one or two.
Viruses evolve like any life, they aren't looking to kill us per se, all they want to do is replicate and survive. If a virus is too virulent and deadly it will kill it's host too fast and the virus strain dies out. The perfect virus will cause us minor issues while we spread it amongst ourselves forever. Look at cold viruses, minor issue so we carry on like we are fine helping to spread the virus. Ebola is so bad it kills a lot of the infected before they can spread it around the world.
That being said, if the tech is or can be accurate enough to detect specific strains it could be really useful for the yearly flu vaccinations. Right now they have to guesstimate which are the most likely flu strains to be a problem next, they can get it wrong. If DeepVerge can track the progress of specific flu strains via waste water and/or breathalysers it would be an invaluable tool for future flu vaccine development.
Burt2000 thanks for the suggestion on seborrheic dermatitis. Based on Google images if that is the issue I have a very mild form. I don't get crusting, mostly red itchiness with mild flaking: though I do live with my face/ears smeared in petroleum jelly to stop it getting too dry/red/itchy.
I'm 95% certain it's fungal related.
1. Had a major back operation which meant antibiotics/anti-fungals post op, despite being in agonising pain from the operation my skin never looked/felt better for a short period of time after the operation.
The above was an in hindsight realisation years later.
2. Fungal intolerance can cause dandruff, so got a GP to prescribe an anti-fungal shampoo. The shampoo cleared the issue almost completely for about 18 months before it stopped working completely (I assume the fungi evolved).
It was manageable before the 1st lockdown with moisturisers/petroleum jelly, but recently I suspect an opportunistic infection is taking hold making it worse.
Need to visit a GP, but trying to avoid GPs until I'm vaccinated.
Personalised skin care depends a lot on cost and exactly what it achieves. This is cloning skin, it's not going to be really cheap.
£20 a go is something you might buy on a whim in a Boots or Tescos, £100+ a go is a more thought through purchase or even a product limited to higher cost treatment services (spas for example).
As I mentioned I've got a skin issue, I've had sensitive skin for decades and I ALSO don't do well with perfumed products: I get a headache from the perfumes in a LOT of products, so I have to avoid a lot of products, but it's completely trial and error. I'll find a product which works (doesn't annoy me) and a year later they stop bloody producing it!
6 months back I bought a 3+ year supply of deodorant because of how much hassle and wasteful it is trying to find suitable products.
Considering all the types of skin conditions there are I won't be the only person interested in avoiding unsuitable products which will irritate their condition.
If it works how I suspect it will work the list of suitable products would be updateable without additional testing (I'm assuming AI will be involved). Suggests the need for a website/app for users to check on a regular basis for new products etc... which offers added value for businesses who want their products included in the tests.
Made a lot of assumptions above which could be way off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Yhz9zXiEYU
Interesting info about personalised skin care testing, when will we find out cost?
I have a skin issue, suspect it's a long-term fungal intolerance possibly with an opportunistic infection, so not only interested from an investor perspective, but to use the service. My skin itches like a barsterd some days and with Covid I'm avoiding the Drs surgery!