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So glad I got a serious case of FOMO in early December and bought at 24.5p.
Looks like I got in within 1p of the lowest price possible after I became aware DeepVerge existed. Very happy with that decision since it doesn't look very likely the SP will see 25p again.
Obviously you can never be certain a rise will hold, but looks so unlikely to revisit the mid twenties considering the multiple DeepVerge offerings: best cloned skin, innovative wastewater monitoring and a possible easy to use Covid-19 test available soon. All backed by years of data and an AI, supported by a proactive CEO looking to combine science/tech/engineering to solve issues without having to reinvent the wheel each time.
Having a good CEO can be the difference between a company doing OK and amazing success.
Mozax It's a good strategy and 'safer' than mine, holding for best price (lower price) is a risk, you can miss the best price as it's already at it's lowest now.
I've missed a few waiting and with others got a lower price.
Dig-deeper I'm new to tracking DeepMatter so FOMO is weak so far, can take a while before everything you've researched fully sinks in and falls into place, so I wouldn't be surprised if I start small in a few weeks time (I will be doing more research as well).
Nothing wrong with the business, so just a case of timing when to buy in and hold long. A 10% difference in a buying in price can add up if a company multibags and I can see this multibagging.
Poor riddler, seems to have a problem with my 39,000 followers on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidLaw and BALANCED research so blocked me on Twitter and filtered here.
No company is a perfect 100% buy it's going to the moon, unless it's Tesla which could one day literally go to the moon. :-)
What can you do, some people are weird.
Done enough research to not buy immediately. I'm looking for multiple year long-term holds buying in as close to the start of big sustained moves as possible (not looking for quick profits).
DeepMatter have a promising offering, basically making reproducing chemistry reliable across multiple labs via the cloud.
Sounds boring, but this has the potential for huge productivity gains saving big pharma billions.
Currently revenue is small £0.54m, loss of £1.17m for 2020 H1.
They are aiming for £5m revenue end 2022, not expected to breakeven until 2023.
Decent cash runway, so shouldn't need to dilute soon.
The money recently raised through dilution looks set to be used for sales/marketing and to keep the lights on (they are running at a loss): no idea if it will be enough cash until break even point or they'll raise more for other reasons.
Long-term this looks like a winner, but 2 more years before breakeven/profits.
I'm not investing yet because to build to £5M revenue over 2yrs is a long time for PIs.
Interestingly the top 25 shareholders own 83.09% of the company and many of them increased their holdings recently. 15 out of 25 increased (some had big increases), only 2 decreased. That's good news, but it doesn't seem to have had much of an impact SP wise. I'm working on the assumption IIs won't be adding a lot more in the short-term (I could be wrong).
Suggests IIs expect this to grow long-term: they have a different timeframe to PIs.
With how PIs get excited/bored this could jump a little now followed by trending down or sideways if revenue growth this yr is slow & most of the £5M is 2022.
I'm assuming a lot of the revenue growth will be 2022, takes time to build relationships with big companies etc... and they'll likely start small to test the products/service before going in big. Will have to wait for the next revenue update (probably April/May) to confirm.
DeepMatter isn't a short-term hold, big growth will likely be next yr (or close to end of this yr) when decent revenue growth is confirmed.
SP is 2p now, if it drops to 1.8p might be a good entry, can't see it drifting lower after revenue is reported in April/May (unless it's bad news). Looks like a good entry for those with a lot of patience.
Biggest risk is with a mcap below £20m and a useful offering to big pharma, one of the big names could buy them and I might miss a big SP jump. #FOMO!
I'm new to taking investing seriously, I'm good at online research, but have limited experience investing.
Very happy to take constructive feedback if you think I missed something.
I want to invest, I like the offering, so tell me why I'm wrong to wait beyond FOMO?
I think I'm getting my head around this one.
This RNS is interesting revenue wise:
https://files.q4europe.com/news-pdf/28628607/DeepMatterGroupPlc_14751676.pdf
I'm assuming current big pharma involvement is relatively early stage revenue wise**: so buy a small amount of hardware & the service, vigorously test for X months to make sure it works before going in big for orders to potentially take the DeepMatter hardware/service company wide.
** This early stage assumption is supported by this "research across over 1,000 individual experimental runs" from the 14th July RNS. 1,000 runs isn't very high and strongly suggests testing the hardware/service vs fully utilised across a big pharma company like AstraZeneca.
IF I'm right and big pharma like what they see (no indications they don't) then in the short to medium-term they start seeing significant orders for DigitalGlassware from the likes of AstraZeneca etc... AstraZeneca is huge, if they go big, it should be BIG revenue, they'll need loads of sensors etc... and I assume the more they use the software service, more they pay DeepMatter?
Anyone done calculations on potential sales to a company like AstraZeneca?
From the RNS above it mentions "The Directors believe the opportunity for full site software and hardware deployments with large pharma companies should be greater than $100,000 per annum."
That's got to be a low ball estimate, AstraZeneca have over 70,000 employees. If the hardware is rolled out in every lab (makes sense to increase productivity) this could be like DeepMatter got a contract to supply all the test tubes for the company.
IF I've understood this correctly that's very exciting.
Also consider the long-term revenue if they get this adopted across lots of Universities, each group running a lab experiment will need a full set of sensors etc... I studied genetics at Uni in the 90s, it's a lot of equipment required in teaching labs. When graduates etc... are used to equipment/software they'll want to keep using it when they move forward in their careers as well.
BTW not invested and not concerned about sharing the above, few people listen (ramping/deramping is a waste of time) and few might listen to me, why would anyone listen to me?
I'd just like to take this opportunity to personally thank TW for being a dick just before I was ready to buy DeepVerge at around 29p.
His dickishness might have caused the SP drop allowing me and others to buy in for the first time at below 25p :-)
My average is 24.4714p, looks like the lowest point recently was 23.5p, so very happy with my average. I'm glad FOMO kicked in, was looking for closer to 20p (22p ish), but didn't look like it was going to happen.
Looking forward to years of growth under GB's stewardship and a nice dividend so I have no need to sell any shares beyond derisking to buyback at a lower price if there's any HUGE SP spikes.
I wonder how much money TW and his followers have lost shorting? Wasn't his target 15p then got silly and said 10p? Was something stupid like that!
Thanks again TW, couldn't have done it without your asinine attack on DeepVerge.
TW also attacked Bidstack, that's up significantly as well. Might be worth tracking TW for companies to buy since he seems to have a rubbish track record. :-)
BeastShares Dude, that comment is only worthy of a
ROFLOL
BeastShares Use your noggin, it's all about making money, if a bank etc... see the money is coming in there won't be a problem borrowing money. It's one thing trying to borrow money when revenue is low (like earlier this year during a pandemic), it's another when revenues are up considerably and there's a clear path to profitability.
I've no idea which route Bidstack will take, but it will be different in 2021 vs 2020, so don't automatically assume if revenues aren't enough to cover costs it's definitely dilution.
When Bidstack is running on all cylinders it will be a money printing machine. In-game advertising is an untapped resource with £billions involved long-term and Bidstack have a very good chance of securing decent marketshare: I can live with debt or a small dilution later next yr to get them to profitability.
helx I suspect dilution next year is partially priced in considering the slow SP movement since the better than expected revenue RNS.
What should happen is the next trading update gives the 2020 revenue numbers & the SP reacts (most likely up), assuming forward revenue isn't totally amazing (enough to cover costs in H1 2021 would be totally amazing) & there's a need for a fund raise it's debt or dilution.
There's a strong argument for debt at this point.
Assuming good revenue in 2021 (covering most H1 costs) there shouldn't be any need for a further raise in 2022, so as more games and advertisers come onboard the SP should rise in 2021, 2022...
Debt is preferable to dilution when a business is confident they'll be profitable soon: it's basic maths.
Raise £1M at 10% interest, they pay back £1.1M in a year.
Raise £1M via shares where the SP is expected to rise, they in effect pay back the amount several times over since the shares which raised the £1M will be worth much more then £1M.
Look at the shares which sold for 4p, worth around 7p now. Debt would have been better, but assume they weren't in a position to secure a loan.
Guess we will have to wait to see.
HappyDays2U Could easily drop to 20p even if DeepVerge are doing well. Look at March 2020, you can't predict those black swan events.
Just takes a couple of small events causing short-term weakness added to something global or UK based (like no Brexit deal) and you hit a new low that's way oversold when you look back.
I'm also in SYM and it looked like the short-term bottom was 20p, looked like it wouldn't drop any lower and could be set to rise when revenue is reported next year. Yesterday it was close to 16p, basically the SP was trending between 20p and 25p, it was at the bottom of the range (just off 20p) when they announced they are taking the EU to court! TERRRIBLE timing for the SP.
So weakness plus bad news = new short-term low!
Had they made the announcement 2 weeks earlier it might have stayed above 20p.
Consider what would have happened to DeepVerge had the TW attack started in the middle of November when the SP was around 20p rather than the end of November when the SP was close to 30p, could have pushed the SP below 20p like what happened to SYM.
Much safer to talk long-term, assuming no new issues the DeepVerge SP should be way above where it is now after we've seen revenue guidance next year. I also can't see the SP trending down from here in the short-term, would take bad news.
I'd like to see 30p tested before revenue guidance, if that happens added with good revenue news it could head towards 35-40p.
Is this https://www.ptonline.com/articles/antiviral-additive-reportedly-kills-coronavirus-on-plastics-in-auto-interiors something to be concerned about?
"According to Farrar, the additive has many applications outside of automotive. “Our patent has 80 claims, with the majority of the focus outside of automotive. It could be used for public transit (buses, subways, planes, etc.), commercial spaces (flooring, door handles, etc), and in medical devices.” The company is undertaking the approval process from Canada’s PMRA and the U.S. EPA for use in auto-interior components. Says Farrar, “This ensures that we have enough data to support our product claims. Given that we have been testing on the SARS-CoV-2 strain directly, we don’t feel that there will be any issue with our data. Most labs do not have this virus strain, so the lab we chose was strategic."
My understanding is SYM haven't started the patent process for their antiviral additive, I'm no patent expert, but if others gain patents in this area it could cause headaches in the future.
Garry, that's new legislation and no guarantee it would actually mean red tape being cut for all potential players. Just means they COULD cut red tape.
You also have to remember most decision makers in government aren't that bright, so DeepVerge would be fighting a bureaucracy for a relatively small market vs US, China, India etc..... where we have a perception our water systems are clean relative to many others: other countries NEED it, for us (until recently) it would be nice to have.
You could see the recent minor interest in tracking Covid via sewage as a possible opening for the government to move on it, gets a foot in the door so to speak. Could be argued we need it now and in the future for future outbreaks.
Also see https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/62/environmental-audit-committee/news/136999/water-quality-in-rivers-inquiry-launched/
"Despite numerous scathing reports that our water companies are routinely discharging untreated sewage legally into our rivers, we are yet to see any system-wide improvement in river quality. Our new inquiry will be considering how water quality can be improved, how we can push the incidence of water pollution right down and what – if any – changes to monitoring, transparency, enforcement and government guidance to regulators are needed."
Another committee to look at a problem they've probably looked at half a dozen times before and done little about. I've watched loads of these committees on the Parliament channel and a lot of it is a waste of time due to lobbying from interested parties.
I'm not surprised DeepVerve have concentrated manpower on countries like the US and China, with success comes big contracts.
My assumption is the regulatory hoops to go through in the UK are onerous compared to a country like China. If the Chinese government wants to do something, they do it, if the UK wants to do somethings it's years of committees and planning and red tape and....
I can see it now, are there any privacy issues with tracking Covid via poop? Let's setup a committee and reconvene in 6 months!
Look at the UK with expanding Heathrow or HS2, it's ridiculously slowwwwww!
Even locally everything is slow, I live in Skegness and it took years to approve pulling down a derelict building by the train station, years to replace an unused pavilion on a park, years to approve and build a Premier Inn on a field used as a place for dogs to crap. It's ridiculously slow in the UK.
DamayHill Exactly right, I'm invested in 3 FTSE 100 shares that are beat down (30% of portfolio in total), might take a while for their recovery but they are the sort of shares (banks & energy) you can buy and forget about for a year or two and be reasonably confident the SP will go up significantly from where they are now.
Would only sell them if there was a share that looked amazing and I had no spare cash. I'm all but guaranteed a decent return on the 3 FTSE 100 companies, historically they always recover. I can't be as certain with DeepVerge even though I believe I'll make more profit from DeepVerge (10% of portfolio) vs the 3 FTSE 100 shares added together (30% of portfolio).
I limit myself to 10% of portfolio in any one share I plan to hold long-term, that way if disaster strikes the loss is minimised to no more than 10%.
DeepVerge feels more risky, it relies on others seeing what we see with no historical success to look back on. We have to trust in the CEO's game plan and hope nothing goes wrong (look at how many businesses have been decimated by Covid!). If we are right we'll be rewarded handsomely, but it will take time for others to see what we see.
I'm not even close to how sticky and risk averse IIs are, so will take time and patience waiting for the SP to build momentum. Take a look at the SP of Boohoo between January 2015 and June 2017. First 12 months is boring (25p to 35p), but then comes the boom (35p to 250p) in 18 months. That's 25p to 250p in 2 1/2 years, if DeepVerge can achieve similar I'll be ecstatic, I'm fine with the first year being boring, though I don't think it will be as slow to build momentum as Boohoo was. :-)
Linear time is a human construct, you shouldn't waste your time worrying about it :-)
thenotorious Many here will have done detailed research over days/weeks/months and based our decision to invest on forward potential which hasn't been fully confirmed yet. We are taking a risk.
Most here will be small PIs, so when we put a few £thousand in it doesn't mean much, what moves the dial is either a LOT of PIs and/or the IIs getting seriously interested.
Most IIs aren't looking for the lowest price (I delayed buying to get in a few pence cheaper per share) or a quick profit, they are looking for a low risk long-term investment with tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands and even millions involved.
Where PIs see a company about to boom big time, IIs see multiple businesses that's struggled for years which have just merged and might be on the verge of turning things around, they see risks.
Early next year some of that risk should be removed, that's when IIs MIGHT become seriously interested. OR they might wait for full year results to confirm the big risks are in the past.
Sometime next year the SP will move up (assuming no major issues of course), exactly when is difficult to predict.
DeepVerge MUST call their breathalyser the DeepVerge Kazoo, that could be catchy and go viral on social media etc... :-)
In hindsight the title should be 50 year olds memory is failing! DOH!!!
Check Google News for the word Bidstack, sort the results by Date or click the link below:
https://www.google.com/search?q=Bidstack&pws=0&gl=us&tbm=nws&sxsrf=ALeKk01WDOJ-lMj3oWownzB3-DwgWXosog:1603675108635&source=lnt&tbs=sbd:1&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjepr2pi9HsAhUvUxUIHQAGBo0QpwUIJg&biw=1279&bih=618&dpr=1.5
Note the first results: FITBIT STOCK CLIMBS AFTER GOOGLE DEAL GAINS CONDITIONAL APPROVAL
The original AIM company used to be called Fitbit before it was acquired by Bidstack.
At first I thought the Google News algo is still linking the old ticker name $FITS to $BIDS, but it's a coincidence, there's another link on the page with Bidstack news. :-)