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I assumed the technical review didn't run in conjunction with the public review, consider if CMET needed a couple of months to respond to the public comments, the technical review would be over before CMET had even replied to the public comments and the reply to the comments would be important to the technical review process. Without further info I'd expect the technical review not to start until the public review was completed.
This is the one opposition to the proposal https://ejustice.lk/2021/03/12/comment-on-the-oluwil-ilmenite-mining-project-eia/ from the "Centre for Environmental Justice". There could be more, but the one means CMET has to respond, that's part of the process.
So that means the PAA have to send that comment to CMET, which CMET replies to. The PAA has 30 days after they receive the response from CMET to respond to the response.
If CMET was able to reply instantly, the earliest date for ratification would be May 11th. I'm assuming CMET needs at least 2 weeks to reply, that takes us to the end of this month.
Assuming the PAA uses the entire time they have to reply the minimum time frame with one opposition to the proposal was May 11th, but realistically after May 25th and it wouldn't be surprising if there was no announcement until mid-June. There is a world pandemic and bureaucracy doesn't always run smoothly.
Because this isn't my area of expertise and limited experience researching mining stocks, I started to buy now. Would rather get in a few weeks early at a decent SP (this is a good SP) vs risk missing out if news drops early. Plus there's always the risk a big institutional investor which understands the process far better than we do decides to invest and the SP spikes up.
My assumption has been because retail investors get bored easy the longer it takes for the EIA news to drop the lower the SP dips. The last Reach RNS on April 26th (included no new info) threw a little spanner in my plan, caused a small short-term SP spike which stopped the SP weakness temporarily.
I took them resorting to a Reach RNS as strong support for the view the EIA news was not imminent (I was right). A company wouldn't waste time on a Reach RNS if there was a big SP catalyst a week or 2 away, that supported my logic the news won't drop at least until nearer the end of May.
I believe we are in the "Technical Review" phase of the EIA process where the Project Approving Agencies (PAA) has 30 days to respond to CMET's reply to any opposition comments. I'm assuming if the PAA are happy with CMET's replies etc... they'll announce the EIA ratification quickly.
I looked up the EIA process in Sri Lanka and based on that process and that there's at least one opposition comment which requires a response from CMET worked out the absolute earliest date was 11th May (that's if CMET replied same day they had access to the opposition comment which is highly unlikely and the PAA announces ratification same day they make the decision), but far more likely closer to the end of this month: CMET will need time to analyse any comments, formulate a response and I assume pop it in the post from the UK to Sri Lanka.
I've given them 2 weeks for the reply, so that takes us to May 25th for the EIA ratification news to drop.
Of course it could be earlier (why I bought half of what I want today) or much later: maybe they'll need a month to reply or the PAA takes more time to announce the decision. I found one opposition comment, could be 10 complaints for all we know which would mean CMET would need more time to reply, so a lot of assumptions.
I'm new to researching mining stocks, so having to make assumptions, any delays and this pushes the time lines into June...
Recently started adding my stock research to a Discord server, so far only invited a handful of ppl via Twitter to join the server. If you follow me on Twitter @DavidLaw drop me a DM and I'll send you an invite and you can see the full research and time line logic.
Well, the SP dropped enough for FOMO to kick in and I bought my first 18,000 shares at 14.13p today. That's about half the shares I want.
Been waiting a couple of weeks for the SP to pullback, so I could hold ready for the EIA news to drop. That news in theory could drop any day, but based on research (look up the EIA process for Sri Lanka and you can easily estimate a timeframe) it's more like closer to the end of this month, so still time for further SP weakness.
Assuming no delays from the comments against the project (there's at least one environmental group opposed), any thoughts on the SP reaction when the EIA news drops? I'm hoping for 25p short-term from that major milestone.
I liked the argument Doc Holiday made in the recent podcast that fund mangers etc... can't invest yet, they need the EIA tick box to validate an investment in CMET.
"The problem here is that there are no clearly defined and robust measures(KPIs) that are reproduced in each update, IMO that's because they then can be easily judged, often harshly, and a BoD cannot then flannel over poor performance in coming periods. Many companies are guilty of this, it's to retain a level of indirection for selfish reasons."
jointhedots, I hadn't noticed/considered the above! I've been taking investing seriously less than 1 year, (still a little naive reading RNS's etc...). See from your profile you've been interested in investing for at least 6 1/2yrs, nothing like experience to be able to cut through the tactics companies use to present the facts in a way which hides problems.
I did find it frustrating I couldn't find recent (2019) trading updates which referenced ARR, or info about locked in revenue from multi-year contracts: some of 2021 revenue is all but guaranteed by multi-year contracts, have no idea how much! Also frustrating the wording can be so imprecise and easily misunderstood.
Anyway, if the retention % is stable in 2021, their base revenue before conversion of the pipeline should be over £40m. Add in converted/almost converted pipeline reported so far and it adds a few more £million. That would bring revenue to around the 2019 level before the rest of the pipeline is converted (or not). IF I'm right that makes the SP look undervalued now.
I like that they do appear to now be moving with the market trend (Cloud Telephony service added July 2020) rather than being stuck with the view 'we only do high quality audio, that's our ONLY thing'. Also this "target to be a fully-licensed telecommunications service provider
in at least 60 country jurisdictions by the end of 2021" sounds like a really good move long-term.
Tempted to add more, but the market isn't seeing what I'm seeing and there's some time before the next trading update: timing is important.
Got a small investment in Loop, considering adding more, so double checking my research before pulling the trigger.
From https://loopup.com/app/uploads/2020/11/LoopUp-trading-update-20201127.pdf
"In light of this, the Group now expects FY20 revenue to be no lower than £50 million (c.18% growth on FY2019) and EBITDA to be no lower than £15 million (c.134% growth on FY2019), moderately below current market expectations. The Group’s annualised revenue run-rate (ARR) currently stands at c.£34 million, made up of c.£28 million of LoopUp Platform capabilities (Meetings, Cloud Telephony and Event) and c.£6 million of Cisco resale, which represents an estimated entry ARR for FY2021 trading."
I'm reading this as £34m is 2020 ARR based on the £42m revenue from 2019, but I believe the general market is reading this as 2021 ARR forecast of £34m, when to work out 2021 ARR you would use the 2020 £50.2m revenue and that would give an estimated ARR for 2021 of around £41.8m.
This would assume they maintain the PS retention rate of 86% and non-PS rate at 67% (that's the % for 2020).
If I'm reading this correctly the analysts who are forecasting 2021 revenue in the low £30m range for this year are way off.
Even if we take 2020 ARR of £34m as the estimate for 2021 it doesn't explain why there's forecasts around £30m revenue for LoopUp, the bare minimum would be £34m, right??? How did an analyst get such a low estimate with a 2020 revenue of £50.2m and a pipeline of £106m?
My calculations also make sense when you look at 2019 revenue of £42m and compare it to the £34m ARR figure. £34m is 81% of £42m which is roughly the retention rate of PS and non-PS services combined.
Anyone who believes LoopUp announced 2021 ARR is £34m is wrong. I cannot find an ARR forecast made by LoopUp for 2021, closest is the "estimated entry ARR for FY2021 trading" quote above and "entry" should be read as base estimate (they expect it to increase in 2021).
Unless their retention rate falls through the floor this year the base revenue before new contracts should be around £42m. Note: to have an ARR as low as £30m the retention rate would have to fall from around 81% in 2020 to 60% in 2021, that seems unlikely.
Add in new business from the £106m pipeline (potentially £53m new revenue for 2021) and 2021 revenue could easily be above £45m.
Feedback appreciated...
Been reading through the EIA and noticed some of the issues raised by the complaint was dealt with and some of the issues sounded a bit wishy washy and was moving towards the view it will be ignored or given lip service.
Does look like a project the Sri Lankan government wants, almost 200 jobs short term, over 250 medium-term many for unskilled locals. Seems CMET will all but take over the port area, so will presumably add significant value to the port long-term. Then there's 7% royalties and 14% corporation tax, money talks....
Very tempted to buy in this week, more research first....
Started researching CMET this weekend, liked that the SP has almost come right back to the 12p offer price in January despite the EIA process close to completion.
I like undervalued stocks with the potential to grow a lot, so looked interesting especially when looking at the back of a fag packet maths: over 10yrs at $36 a recoverable tonne and margins of 50%, that's over $600m in recoverable material, profits around $300m or yearly $60m recoverable, $30m profit. That's on just 5% of the potential mine area.
As I was researching everything looked really good until this: https://ejustice.lk/2021/03/12/comment-on-the-oluwil-ilmenite-mining-project-eia/
Basic premise is the mining will damage the environment especially causing coastal erosion and this is a slippery slope to more mining licenses including offshore licenses.
I have no idea how important/influential the "Centre for Environmental Justice" is or how the Sri Lankan government will treat a comment like this: I don't have any experience how this sort of opposition during the consultation period impacts timelines.
Is this likely to cause a delay in ratifying the EIA or are these types of complaints pretty much ignored in Sri Lanka???
Doing early research, anyone worked out roughly how undervalued Fast Forward is relative to the portfolio they hold?
Interested in a short-term trade (under 6 months) if it's undervalued a lot.
KIBO had a similar scenario to Fast Forward, they hold a significant % of MAST and in the run up to the recent MAST IPO the KIBO SP went up quite a bit. Then pulled right back after IPO despite KIBO still being undervalued relative to MAST. Anyone who bought 6 months before the IPO would have at least doubled their money had they sold on the news. Thinking Fast Forward might do something similar if it's undervalued a LOT.
There's also Prosus which is undervalued relative to the Tencent shares they hold, been like that for years. All because a stock is undervalued doesn't meant the market will correct the 'error', BUT for a stock like Fast forward where their portfolio is in a sector which could grow fast, the back up if the SP doesn't correct in the run up to the LEAP IPO is hold until other stocks mature in the portfolio.
BTW not hinting anyone buy KIBO or Prosus (the above could read like a subtle cross ramp), I don't hold either of them. Don't like the underlying businesses, wouldn't want to get stuck in them if the market didn't correct the 'error'.
Smeeno, have you tried a Market Quote?
Had issues with some shares not filling limit orders even when the limit is set a little above what ppl are buying at! Found a market quote nearly always works and the price paid is usually good for stocks which don't move fast.
I usually buy in lots of between £2,000 and £5,000 via IG, so not huge buys, but sort of in the range many retail investors invest.
Vascular The service offered by Skin Shift isn't similar to what DeepVerge offer.
Skin Shift takes a cheek swab (from your mouth) which only takes your DNA, I assume from this they guess what your skin needs. Not a particularly useful service IMHO, my DNA hasn't changed in 50yrs, but my skin needs have drastically changed. In my teens/early twenties I had oily skin, prone to spots, in my early 50s I have dry skin prone to flaking/itching! Same DNA, but completely different requirements over the past 50yrs.
Skin Trust Club takes a sample of the bacteria and fungi growing on your skin (your microbiome) and analyses what's growing on your skin. If you've taken antibiotics/antifungals there's a fair chance your microbiome is a mess.
If you don't have a health microbiome it leaves the skin open to various infections and disorders, from the decades plus worth of data DeepVerge own added with AI they can guess what's right/wrong with your skins microbiome and suggest relevant products to promote a healthy microbiome and treat various skin disorders. More data they collect, better the service gets.
I'm sure you are aware of gut bacteria and how you can buy yogurts with healthy gut bacteria to promote healthy digestion etc..., there's even companies working on gut bacteria which play a role in the immune response: some are looking at gut bacteria which might enhance cancer treatments for example.
The bacteria and fungi growing on our skin and in ours guts is important to good health and DeepVerge are trying to tap into this market: as far as I'm aware there's no other similar service which looks at the skin microbiome.
After seeing the early Skin Trust Club alpha and beta signups I'm finally getting excited about this new service. To be a success they need big numbers and it's looking possible.
At say £50 a yr per user that's £500k revenue per 10,000 users.
What I liked was the anonymised data this will generate, that's probably got more value to DeepVerge than the money paid by consumers to use the service. That data will add value to their other high cost services to cosmetics companies etc...
When you understand what's happening you have to be impressed with GB's plans here.
I had to laugh when I read the title "Helx was right after all..."
He said the SP would go to 4p, it hasn't gone to 4p so he's wrong.
It's clear lots of small investors who are interested in Bidstack have sold to wait for the expected placing. When that's out the way the SP will probably go up again.
What I find interesting is the lack of research done by small investors, a possible placing seems to have come as a shock to many who bought during the recent SP spike in January: spike probably due to the CEO mentioning 7 AAA games in a interview behind a paywall!
Most ppl who have been watching Bidstack for more than 5 mins were aware a placing was very likely due to the burn rate.
jc1220 Good question.
I haven't researched the competition in enough detail to say INHC is THE one, but what made the investment decision an easy one for me was Drs have already made the choice, they use their apps.
It means when INHC adds another service/upgrades etc... the Drs (the users) will know it exists and some of those Drs are involved in making decisions on what an NHS trust uses in the future.
They haven't reinvented the wheel here to try to break into a market, they've seen what the NHS etc... is using and acquired the app.
There's going to be a lot of trusts who currently don't have a service anywhere near as good as what INHC offers and with them building a suite of complimentary apps with some already the best app available (best based on how many Drs use them), seems like they could build serious traction long-term.
mugginsthedog Since you lack faith in DeepVerge why are you still invested?
I assume at some point you were highly positive about your investment, but from your perspective the story has changed and when that happens you get out to protect your money. That's what intelligent investors do, otherwise you are holding an investment you believe will go down: that's dumb.
There's thousands of stocks to invest in, why aren't you researching for a better home for your money?
I'm being serious, doesn't matter if your initial investment is up or down, whatever it is worth now is your money, if you don't believe in this one do the research and find a better company to invest in. Protect your money.
mugginsthedog I think you are missing the big picture, the breathalyser tech works and is highly accurate.
Yes, it's unlikely they'll gain traction in the 1st round of UK government funding for Covid testing next month, which is a shame as it sounds like it's one of, if not the best solution available.
Interestingly it wouldn't be that much effort for the UK gov to step in and help out DeepVerge here. There's going to be millions of Covid tests performed and it wouldn't be a bad move to double test with the DeepVerge breathalyser at a select few locations until enough data was collected. With the potential of a 4 second test, that's what I'd do if I were in government.
Longer term DeepVerge has the ability to use the underlying tech, expertise AND connections to add another section to the DeepVerge group testing for a variety of substances and diseases which can be detected via breath. That's a huge potential market and unlike other breathalysers their tech is ready and fast. If this was a startup (just the breathalyser with AI data etc..) about to IPO on this potential there would be huge interest in this.
If you don't see the potential here, why are you invested (assuming you are invested)?
seththorpe Pretty sure the dips been and gone when the SP went to 27p last month. I added more and I rarely add more to an investment (was too good to miss).
Assuming we see the news many here are expecting later this month those sorts of SP levels are seem highly unlikely to be repeated.
gharri07 Didn't you read the latest RNS?
"The Group has sufficient working capital and banking facilities to enable it to implement its growth plans for 2021."
Businesses run on a combination of revenue and debt from banks etc... it's not a case of having to raise cash via shares when they have cash and banking facilities (a bank loan facility for working capital etc...).
They had £500k at the end of the year with a 2020 loss of £400k, but with a £700k order which was delayed: no delay would have meant £300k profit for the year.
Assuming no disasters I think a worst case revenue will be a small profit for this year.
Unless they plan to pay their new staff members £100k a year each I'm reasonably confident they'll get through the year without a raise, UNLESS it's for something new which no one could predict.
Look at their 2020 revenue sources (brackets 2019 revenue).
d2w Masterbatch (bio degradable plastics) £7.3 million (£7.1 million) 2% increase
d2p Masterbatch (antimicrobial plastics) £0.5 million (£0.3 million) 88% increase
Finished Products £1.8 million (£0.6 million) 200% increase
If they put more sales effort in Finished Products which includes antiviral PPE, 2021 H2 could be a good end to the year. They have a way to make antivirucidal PPE, that stuff should sell itself for many years to come.
There's no indication they will need a fund raise. Where did this idea come from?
SYM marketing to investors is total crap, leaves us guessing what is going on in the background.
Consider their additives are not off the shelf purchases and takes a long time from interest to major sale.
For example if Apple decided it wanted to have it's products antiviral it wouldn't buy 10s of millions of pounds worth of additives and start using them the following week.
Apple would buy a relativity small batch to test it's impact on the stability of their products, they wouldn't (they can't) assume what SYM says is accurate.
Those sorts of tests take many months to mimic years of product usage. If a company trusted SYM and it turns out the additive has a negative impact on a product it damages that brands reputation.
Imagine if a SYM additive resulted in a product breaking in half the time than it would without the additive, this has to be tested.
We are one year into a pandemic and we know SYM has had interest in their antiviral additive, but only confirmed it's antiviral in the summer of 2020.
A large business showing interest in late summer 2020 would only now be in a position to be sure the additives don't cause unforeseen issues with their products.
Sales should be coming in by now.
If we don't start to see interest from 2020 H2 converting to sales soon I think we can assume SYM will never make a big breakthrough in revenue under current management.
DVRG now my largest holding (more than 10% of portfolio: I broke one of my rules), since the SP drop added an extra 13,000 shares as seems way undervalued now.
Since I had no plans to sell my initial investment (21,000 shares at 24.5p) if the SP recovers back to 37p+ I'll be very happy with this SP weakness as added more at 29p and 27p (invested my last bit of cash today).
Does anyone seriously see the SP continuing on a long-term downtrend with the huge revenue increases we already know are happening?
If you trust in your research, hold or buy more for when it goes up.
Newuncle you can get an idea of how many have open positions on IG here for DVRG https://www.ig.com/uk/marketanalysis/ig-shares/integumen-plc/prompts/CASH
I invest via IG, but rarely look at that type of page.
Hmm, looks like you have to be logged in to view the page above. Main info below:
51-251 IG customers have open positions.
97% long, 3% short.
100% trades today sells
100% trades this week sells
76% trades this month sells
ALL IG customers who traded in DVRG this week have been selling!!! My recent top up (on 8th Feb) would be included in the 24% of buys this month.
I don't buy on margin, so unaffected by any new IG rules.
Speedic There's nothing wrong with DeepVerge, what you might not be aware of is the SP of stocks tends to go up when ppl buy and down when they sell. #RocketScience
Doesn't matter if the business is doing great or ****, it's whether 'we' buy or sell and right now 'we' are selling more than buying.
I assume most experienced investors know the above, but some seem to forget it when they are losing money.
I think DeepVerge is undervalued and considering buying more because I believe eventually 'we' will see the increases in revenue and other positive developments and sentiment will change from selling to buying.