Member Info for Dav3J

It's hard to say for sure that we will get such a large spike on positive Lemur news. We went up a penny or two on the day, but that was also with the seller overhang (FI?) and both Sojitz buyout and 2018 interim financials having been recently RNS'ed with little effect.

As a peripheral to our Vanadium focus, it is harder to see where Lemur fits in the puzzle. I personally would like us to wrap up the financials quickly once all assessments are complete and either spin it off or sell it entirely.

We should be due an update on this one shortly. From the Q3 update I would hope to see the BFS completed, the environmental impact assessment either complete or close to completion, and potential funding sources being discussed. Not sure what impact a positive outcome to the above could do to the SP, hopefully give us a decent boost though?

Alfa, thanks once again for the analysis. Really hoping to see the shorters get well and truly rogered today.

Are you still keeping track of the overall sells vs buys imbalance over the last few weeks/months? We must be north of 20-25m by now, surely?

@Lindon, the problem I have with that is that anything currently ongoing is unrelated to what happened in Q4. They ought to have known what has taken place during Q4 across all areas of the business for a month now. If commissioning or handover of the battery is RNS-worthy, it needs doing separately. The same is true of Lemur.

Good find RK.

So unfortunately IIRC I think the plan was for commissioning to be completed in something like December or by the end of Q4. If the trials have been running for 10 days this suggests to me that the commissioning was only completed shortly beforehand, i.e. mid-January. I'm not sure if this is going to be a negative in the upcoming BE update or if they can sufficiently hint at being near completion by the end of the reporting quarter. As diatom says, perhaps an RNS about the trials starting may have been prudent to offset this.

Nonetheless, great news and they must have overcome the electrolyte issues if the battery is now up and running in trials.

Surely, SURELY this must be the end of the MM's tame seller?

I agree Daisan. Up until December came and went we were all fully expecting a dividend policy announcement by year end. The news flow has been so slow and sporadic over the last 6 months I certainly wouldn't feel inclined to put dates against any upcoming news flows, especially when there is nothing from the company to back these up.

Based in Urmston - I'm far too lower-middle class to be part of the Cheshire set! Maybe one day my BMN holding will buy me a pad out in Alderley Edge ;) Quite nice here, close enough to the big smoke to be exciting, far enough away that the countryside is on my doorstep. We just need Mr Burnham to sort out our travel infrastructure!

I would very happily move to either public transport or an alternative fuel car (electric or hydrogen) if I could to do my bit for the environment, but given the lack of foresight and investment by this country into our infrastructure we're still firmly stuck in the 20th Century, and as such I just cannot do away with my petrol car.

I could get a brief train ride and then Manchester Metrolink into work, but considering our trains are all old pacers that run infrequently when they are not on strike or cancelled, this just isn't practical. I live on an old Victorian terrace road so there is no way I can set up to charge an electric car. Hydrogen cars would be the absolutely perfect solution, but for some reason that technology has been completely ignored in favour of electric. We're all told to consider the environment, but honestly what choice do we have in the matter?

Thought as much Alfa, thanks. This is a big seller then, assuming it is just the one of course - 2% of the company's issued capital.

Alfa, how big is the MM "short" position now? We must be expecting this big sell to drop in sooner or later and the overhang to disappear a la Erongo?

Alfa - understand that much, but then what is the motivation for the attrition of the SP? Why not maintain it at higher levels to extract the most of the PIs buying the shares off them when the large sell is not visible?

OK, I'm sure I am going to be incredibly naïve here, but I was under the impression that any transaction, buy or sell, large or small, MM or PI, had to be declared within 3 days. If the SP is dropping despite continued buying pressure, this suggests a drip drip of shares being sold. Can anyone explain?

The conspiracy theorists among us may be interested to hear that according to the internet, the general consensus is that 100 is a MM signal for "I need shares" 😆

100 even

Surely some monkey business there? Just 200 shares at full ask?

Sanchez - my caveat with a PE of 8 was that it would be solely based on Vametco profit, which at present is all the market have to go on, also meaning we have a single-source income and are based in what most FTSE investors would consider a risky territory.

Significant growth and upside plus JSE listing would warrant a higher ratio (up to 15 maybe?). As I said, BE coming into play as a profit generator is a game changer and potentially puts us into PE of 25 territory.

I genuinely think that 8 is a decent PE for us solely looking at mining profits and factoring in a "South Africa Discount".

Once BE comes into play however I think we should be looking at 15 and upwards.

It's not a true "double top" if buys are still significantly outweighing sells though, is it? Though I'm sure you know that already.

@Pdub

If you read the official LSE notice on it, it states that the board were advised by their nomad around the need to disclose, they disagreed and instead consulted their own solicitors. To me it seems like they somewhat wilfully sought to get around the need to disclose the undertaking to either the market or their nomad.