RE: What's the fuss18 Dec 2020 13:31
Thankyou for a reasonable reply. I suppose on one level, these warrants need to exercised, and it has given the company some cash. And, if they run out of cash, there are plenty more warrants...
The issues as I see them are that the company isn't really properly financed, its now running on empty and will need a drip drip supply of warrants. When the gold starts to pour, they will be heavily in debt, and this is going to take a fair while to pay off, especially at Barclaycard rates of 17% etc.
As DJ, keeps saying, this is AIM, and delays and setbacks are inevitable, so when the next delay or setback occurs, I'm sure there will be another drop in SP. I also think 900k is not much money in terms of mining, when you have salaries, legal cases to pay, interest, and the AISC upfront. That's before any surprises, which seems to be GRLs forte.
I am not particularly arguing that GRL is a bad long term investment (3 yrs). Most of my postings were about the current share price, which I think is over inflated given where we are. Its also pretty evident that this company has quite a colourful background, and I would not trust them with my money long term.
I don't need a spreadsheet to see that the market capital will have been diluted by almost 40% once all these warrants are exercised, and the reality is that the money from the warrants wont really be enough to run the operations. I therefore anticipate quite low share price growth potential for GRL over the next 12 months. i am only interested in returns over that period, that's my strategy, and there are enough opportunities around without needed dead money tied up for years and years.
I think what was discussed yesterday, was that this would somehow multibag on the permit RNS, which it wont (or for a few days at best while smart people exit). All that will happen is the exercised warrants will be sold to more AIM investors and the price will drift back to 7p. Not an investment case for me here.
As DJ keeps saying, this is AIM and GRL is AIM at its finest.