Member Info for Dartron

I have over 50% in my pension in NCYT. Spent my last £820 on another 100 shares. I then sold ARC in my ISA and bought another £150 shares. S**t or Bust!!!!

@HIllSeeker. Good luck. Think its pretty obvious from a charting perspective, which helps. Hopefully a slow drift up to 9.50 almost stealth like, just how the funds like it.

SeaS:
If I was buying any company, I would buy one that I understood and could add value too. So in other words the suiter would already see value. Ok, you may have doubts about the long term future, but maybe a company in the know can see huge potential here. Global sales, feet in doors, also getting 100M in cash, a couple of companies, 12 months worth of orders (worst case). It doesn't sound so crazy as you paint it out to be. Its all in the eye of the beholder.

Makes me laugh when people say, it has to do this or that. What if there was a take over offer tomorrow, would it still need to meet the 200 MA? I dont think so.
Im only offering my opinion, I think that channel is the next important marker.

When price becomes attractive enough for more buyers than sellers, the price will increase. Its not manipulated by MM's. Possibly some short selling, but it really just is people selling out and moving on, like our friend Dan. As the price gets lower, the company earning 1M per day with 100M in the bank will become the £10 pound note on the floor that I mentioned earlier. At some point, people will scrabble to claim it. That's the market. You say at £4.00, I say much higher than that, but I will agree that neither of us knows. I will watch that channel carefully tomorrow, if it bounces, might buy a few more.

In all seriousness, I see a trend channel rising over the last 3 months, that we briefly broke out of pre results. Today we hit the floor of the channel again at £8.20. Asides from intraday tomorrow, im hoping that is the lowest. its a very easy channel to see if you look at a 3 month chart. its about £2.50 in height. Once we get back to the average of the channel we will be £9.50. I would be very happy with that right now. That is my honest opinion.
I think much lower and the funds really will pile in, and possibly takeover target.

Ha ha anon3, that's what I thought, Is that Dan writing that. What cracks me up is all of these companies offer no communication, then after 6 months suddenly realise that there PR is poor.

No they don't. They are pushing there luck deliberately, then glibly try to apologise for it.

No way I will sink any more in here. Hope for a bounce up to 30p then im off. Dog AIM - got it in one.

I want to hear the tips from Dan, I could use 50% gain, while I wait for NCYT.

Here is a very simple answer you can check yourself. Google what trade flag 'TNCP' means.
You will find that it means - Non Price Contribution to Discovery. This basically means that all of these transaction are just between 2 parties, and the agreed price does not affect the share price. So its a bit irrelevant, in the context you are asking.

I am not trying to discourage you from looking at trades, it is interesting, but that is basically the answer.

Imagine if I sold you my NCYT shares for £5 per share, that doesn't mean the SP is now worth £5. We could report the trade to the exchange and it would be off book. (Then everybody would also think I was crazy... LOL)

43,950,000 / 0.45p = 97,666,666 new shares
+
7,043,772.11 (retail raise) / 0.45p = 15,652,826 new shares.

AS stated earlier, represents about 50% dilution.

You need a new calculator sunshine.

Well said. Think you covered everything there. (except the 125M debt facility).

Interesting to watch, painful to participate in I think. Wont be seeing 60p for a while.

Right, didn't spot the currency. Slightly better but still not happy with the terms.

Well even worse then, circa 40% dilution, at 40% discount. 2 year wait, on wording like, 'should be enough..'

Is that correct?
Raising 60Million at 45p requires 133M shares.
133M shares + 224M existing shares = 357M
133M / 357M = 37.25% dilution
Not to mention that they have discounted the price by 40% from the recent high.

Not used to losing such a large chunk of my investment in a placing, usually its around 20%.
RNS contains a few caveats too, will this be the last raise?

I dont feel as good about this as many posters. What am I missing?

This was trading under £2 on Thursday. How could an increase of 25% be justified because the silver price ticked up for 2 days.
The reddit crew were never going to drive the spot price up, and HOC would not have benefited from it either in 2 days.
Long term, yes silver silver silver, but this needs to get back to £2.20 now and behave itself. LOL. I sold out like a shot on Friday, too good to be true, when the SP has been under 2.10 for most of the last 3 months. Ideal for a short now, isn't it.

The sell off...
I was thinking that the sell of was mainly due to large investors (II's) dumping stock. I cant prove this one way or the other, all I am doing is reading the transactions as they happened, and trying to speculate on the other details. Mainly out of curiosity.
Tonight I used the log from the 29th, when the SP dropped from 978 to 895 over the day. (Results day).
I divided the trades in to 4 groups based on volume.
under 1000 shares.
1000 - 5000
5000 - 10000
over 10000

I then counted the occurrence of each group. I do not count the UT or any delayed trades after 4.30 pm.

Under 1000 = 3,836 trades
1000 - 5000 = 590
5000 - 10000 = 24
Over 10000 = 9

I then summed the volume of each group showing total shares traded in that particular group. I am unable to determine buys or sells (still working on that). That isn't part of the info you get from the stock exchange.

Under 1000 = 1M shares
1000 - 5000 = 0.5M
5000 - 10000 = 154k
Over 10000 = 155k

I do not know how many of the small trades, could be bits of larger trades (icebergs), but I was expecting to see more large trades. I thought it might reveal II selling, but it does not. Also, I likely missing some of the trades as I discussed in my last below below.

It probably doesn't reveal anything, but you could surmise that the sell off may have been more retail investors than II's. The average small trade was for 268 shares (circa £2.5k).

Of the 9 large ones, I felt 2 of them may have been buys. When others on here say that the price is being dropped to get stop losses etc, I think its just a flood of volume hitting the order book. If someone dumps a medium sized sell for say 20,000 shares and the average small buy is about 10 times smaller, you can see why the price drops as we have to suck them all up as I say, before the price has any chance of going up. Also typically there are around 2 - 4 trades each minute once the rush in the morning slows down. I wonder if when people say they cant buy, is it because the brokers get overwhelmed with orders, rather than refuse to sell any? They profit from each trade what ever. I learnt on GDR, that PEEL made more money selling GDR than GDR did in business.

These results were probably predicable, but somewhat surprising to me. I guess it has just sold off, for all of the reasons being discussed in the other thread right now.

Hi Lucky, I was hoping to find these trades, and add them in to my log from 29th Jan. However I have not got these trades from todays log.
Im sure they occurred, and its very interesting that I do not have them in the data from this site. I think its down to the trades being off book, and this means they can be reported much later (if at all). The data that is available from level2 on this site, must be a little more sophisticated than I first thought. Im a bit puzzled why they did not appear in the stock exchange download for today?

I was going to caution that the determination of whether it was a buy or sell could be wrong, but not knowing the source of the data, who am I to say! I do notice that when it printed it put the current bid / ask, not the bid ask at the time of the trade, so I suspect the buy/sell algorithm is probably not to be trusted. This is why I embarked on my own software, however I am clearly missing some delayed trades in my free data feed, and I know of many issues with my approach, and its almost a futile exercise, but it keeps me entertained...

I looked at my log from the 29th at the times you showed:
29/01/2021 15:54:57 GBX 897.106 555 4978.9383 Off-Book AIMX
29/01/2021 15:55:15 GBX 893.229 884 7896.14436 Off-Book AIMX

Showing a buy was around 897+ at 15.55. Your trade was for 903.

29/01/2021 15:39:07 GBX 896.658 800
29/01/2021 15:39:16 GBX 902 100

Showing at 15.39 a buy was around 902+ your trade for 878 and 881, sells maybe?

Also because the trades are off book, they should not have theoretically affected the bid / ask at the time. This would have been a transaction off book, agreed by 2 parties. They could have discussed this hours earlier for example.

There not big trades either, ill write another post about the 29th..

https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading-terms/off-book-definition#:~:text=An%20'off%2Dbook'%20trade,off'%20of%20the%20order%20books.

Didn't realise there was an RNS, I noticed the uptick in SP and volume. Came to check it out, found some big buys in the last 10 minutes of the day. 2 x 10k shares, 1 x 11k shares and 1 x 17k shares. Glad I topped up at 53 on Friday.

Yes ok, got it. The exchange log is still 15 minutes delayed. My fault for being a cheapskate.

Where are you seeing those?
I am using the published log from the stock exchange. They are not in there.
Paste this link in your browser, hit return and you will download the excell log for today (so far, including anything now published today from Friday).

https://api.londonstockexchange.com/api/gw/lse/download/NCYT/trades

Chat about it after 7pm if you want, so as not to clog the board up?

I am not seeing them Lucky. Only one big one has popped up from Friday, and that was after hours. Also has a flag TCNP, meaning that is did not affect the price.

I have to say, I do not believe in tree shakes (in liquid shares). I am unhappy to say that the price has dropped due to selling. The large sells are there in plain sight to see. That said, it could possibly be buying today, hard to say.

We all know its a no brainer to buy at this price, so we should probably stop trying to read the tea leaves. Truth will out.