RE: How low19 Feb 2021 14:12
I agree that the SP will reflect market sentiment. However looking at the numbers, this sell off feels over done.
The key issue is the POG, if it does drop, will it recover, and when. Seems slightly absurd that POLY has benefited from high gold prices for the last 12 months, and now we are close to being rewarded, the price is dropping because gold has lowered slightly. I realise that the SP dropping is due to the future earnings, but the current drop seems to imply that the POG is the only thing that affects the earnings here. Examine the growth of this company for example since IPO.
If we say Poly SP has recently dropped 10%, Gold would need to drop to around 1650 to match the 10% decline. (using average price of both this last 2 months) Yet of coarse if gold were to further, this will likely drop another 10% as you say.
To put it in to context - have you noticed that the POLY SP over the last year numerically matches the gold price : e.g. 1850 per ounce, and £18.50 per share. We saw this when gold hit £20 and so did the share price. Therefore as a yard stick barometer, if gold drops to 1500, then so should POLY. Yet we are already there, with gold at £1760.
However, on top of that, does the SP reflect the ongoing mining projects and acquisitions? (Forget the name of the large silver mine online in 2023). The only downside that struck me was that the % of silver currently produced appears to be around 1%, so the price of silver is not going to help much here.
Bit coin feels like a bit of a distraction at the moment, I cant see it continuing un-hindered. Any negative event with Bit coin is going push gold up IMO. Although the central banks dont want the fiat currency to be devalued by a large move to gold, at least they also own large quantities of gold. If bit coin wins out, they will have a real problem.
I am still glad to have bought heavily at £15.50 on Wednesday, though technically I should have waited. I also felt the sell off this week, was somewhat forced. Inspecting the trading logs, the sells were mostly algorithmic, and the price declined more of less in a straight line. The volume appears different today, like what ever did that has stopped. Maybe the by-standers can come in now and start picking up a few bargains. Gold hasn't collapsed (yet), the internet is getting more bullish about gold. f
Some clips from the Q4 RNS. Interesting to see below, that revenue jumped 28%, that wasn't all down to the price of gold.
The Company's FY2020 gold equivalent ("GE") output amounted to 1,559 Koz, a 4% increase y-o-y
Revenue in 2020 jumped by 28% to reach US$ 2.9 billion
The Company expects full-year Total Cash Costs ("TCC") to be below the original guidance of US$ 650-700/GE oz.
Sharp devaluation of domestic currencies (RUR and KZT) outweighed additional COVID-related costs...
All-in Sustaining Cash Costs ("AISC") are expected to be within the guidance range of US$ 850-900/GE
2021
AISC in 2021 is expected to a