Member Info for danl90

I think you’re all thinking this is just “another guy at softbank”. He isn’t. This is the guy who led on Softbanks deal into THG. He’s the guy who know Matt and the guys for years and obviously made SoftBank pony up £700m and then agree an option

For those who know much about M&A or funds. The deal has as much drive as the guys pushing it. It’s likely with this guy at the top of Slftbank he would have kept pushing our deal. If he’s gone we have lost our main voice at the table ie if the option looks a bad deal there’s no skin off the noses of the blokes who are at SoftBank

He’s an idiot with an army of idiots

Every video is price was £x it’s now gone down so it’s a buy

Yes but it doesn’t mean it’s not bad news for the option

It’s not something that would cause a short term movement

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/softbank-senior-executive-akshay-naheta-in-talks-to-leave

Who’s saying it’s not a growth company?

You think these things will pass in 3-5 months? Yeah JL and the board said that in September and now they are saying “through into 2022” so even they don’t think they will pass in 3-5 months. The industry of air freight don’t think it’s going to pass in 3-5 months

Again the point your not addressing is cash. What’s the cash generation going to be post capex?

Only way to solve this is ingenuity

Profit isn’t relevant it’a cash

What is now the expected cash generation for the next 3 - 5 years after capex

My assessments have always been “spot on” it’s just that rag had to argue every god damm thing. Trying to belittle all points as I didn’t know the camera boohoo use

Did anyone mention poor sales were due to the camera or was it more failing of “the platform” which again according to rag doesn’t exist/ is just a website

He’s a dinosaur

The problem is that “competitors aren’t experiencing the same issues” as some as based in the US so the lead time to customer is quicker

The warehouse, even if they find one tomorrow, will take 12 months to get ready. It will also be manual which will be a drag on costs and the point of automation at PLT was for maximum saving so now if 50% of output moves elsewhere does the efficiency saving at Sheffield fall?

“Good management” here is the question. Apart from “pandemic passing” they haven’t got any other suggestions. They were clueless. And they never saw this coming (annoyingly I did but didn’t see it as fast as this). They need to let JL go. He’s got this wrong. His career was stores he wasn’t the right guy

And they said on the call the “buying three dresses and returning one” ISNT happening at boohoo fyi

The issue now is that the business is now saying to investors “sorry but you’re looking at 5-6 years now of very heavy capex as instead of international we bought cheap in the U.K.”

Gymshark. Investment from general Atlantic. First thing it did? Two warehouses in the states. One east coast and one west coast. They knew it. Asos knew it. Amazon knows it.

Boohoo called this wrong and now a few of those U.K. warehouses might now be millstones!

I think boohoo’s update has woken a lot of people to the need for local fulfilment and offering

Boohoo seen as a global business have failed. Buying more and more U.K. warehouses and never a US distribution

Brands will see boohoo (who was thought to be a leader) and think “god we need that or see what happens”

Can't argue against stupid

Barclays aren't an "investor"

They base their valuation based on guidance from the company which until yesterday was very different ie
- margin at 9% not 6% which it is now
- returns would inline with historic levels. They have now ballooned
- growth was returning in EU and US. It's now negative

Barclays gave a view on what management said. It now turns out everything management said is incorrect due to deterioration so therefore barclays update for the new world

It's like valuing your house. Estate agent says £500k. If on the drive back to the office your house has a fire is the estate agent stupid as his valuation now widely off? Or should be re-assess the value on new info

Barclays have updated for new info which no one knew until yesterday

How is you all find this concept so hard?

Both are just on the cusp of being big enough but not quite

Zalando dwarf Asos but it's model is GMV marketplace. But try as it likes it can't break asos in the UK. Asos has the better proposition and can win. What does asos need? Better own brands ie PLT

Boohoo has PLT but not infrastructure so use Asos

Also both now havehuge tech teams the cost saving here would be huge. They could also sell a load of boohoo warehouses and put that into a joint asia hub or 2nd US (east coast)

Scale is what's needed now or both businesses will be burning shareholder cash for a long while

@harchris if you ever get hold of the note they will say just that

it will say something like "based on trading update x" also the trading update wasn't scheduled until Jan

They come out usually just before or around a peak period to help remind funds that the stock is there (a few cam out for asos too)

But come on how did you know all those things? Please share

Atm I wouldn't say either. I'd say after buying following September I believed management's word
- re-acceleration in EU was great to see (for a while before it I was saying negative growth in EU was bad so seeing it correct was great
- US I assumed was now still growing. So is the stock "overdone" now this is negative? No. Does it make me a bad gambler? no as I'll have to hold the view that air freight will normalise
- automation (boohoo is way behind asos or THG) but this upside for shareholders here. Whats now not clear is if the new EBITDA margin reflects the expected automation gain? So is actually even worse on an underlying level? Or is automation being paused to bring forward US warehouse? Either way you aren't seeing an advance from automation in short term (again as WE WERE TOLD IN SEP - so add that to your list of stuff you knew)

At this price I just hope boohoo and asos merge. Boohoo don't have the cash for US. Asos have a warehouse which will be automated next year. They can share that. PLT wil fly on Asos's platform as they also have berlin site. The group can then have scale to mitigate some of these costs headwinds

Boohoo do everything on the cheap. Look at the asia sites they launched yesterday using Peter Jone's company. Why not use THG and then it can be added into Asis fulfilment? Have boohoo not learnt their lesson? Why launch asis websites and have 8 - 11 days delivery? Who in Japan will go for that is people even as far as France won't

No you didn’t see all these things coming. You think it’s Barclays who have lost credibility? That’s a joke right? It’s management

Management stood there on a fancy presentation in September and said
- don’t worry about margin it will be above 8.5% - 9% (a few months later massive slash) but we all saw that coming? No not even they did!
- sales are “re-accelerating” in key markets. Yeah re-accelerated so much that November was so bad it drove RoE in total to be NEGATIVE growth! How bad must that performance have been? But you saw that coming? Wow how did you manage that? Please share.
- US sales we were told were “strong” and “inline with expectation” but you obviously saw the negative growth there too? You’ve sat on this key data haven’t you
- only £70m of cash! After peak trading that’s all they have? It’s usually closer to £200m after peak. How are they going to fund automation and “bring forward US warehouse”? Well obviously you know as you knew this in advance so please share. The reason US warehouse was 2023 was as they couldn’t find everything and that was pushed out. Now they have realised it’s “fast” fashion and they are ****ed
- return rates we were told were “normalising” but they are above pre-pandemic rates. How did you also know that?

But hey you knew all this so tell us how? Barclays model what they know which is what we were told in Sep. Even management didn’t know it would get this bad this fast (well expect you it seems)

I’m a holder here and I’m gutted this is bad

Because of results are so far from expectations you have to update immediately

They were known? Freight costs were known but what else?

Also don’t forget at the last update they told us they were seeing freights costs as easing to back of year (which now isn’t the case)

What else was “known?”

You haven’t read the update have you it seems?

@harchris their view last week would be based on the last update. They update again for yesterday. That’s not losing credibility that’s just logic

If estate agent values your house but after they leave there’s a fire their valuation will still say £500k but when they learn of the fire you’d expect them to change it?

Hope that helps

Is simon bowler, who is the guy who ****ged off ingenuity, is basically hinting hard as hell on the call that boohoo should use it for the USA

It’s obvious even to the guy who hates it!

It’s not Market abuse directors are free to trade after an RNS

It is up