Member Info for danl90

One bit I had mentioned was what the impact would be of all the licensed product sales and it appears that that has had a bit of a bite. So something to keep an eye on

Ultimately Rev has to be the reason they shop and not just because it’s Simpson/ elf etc etc

The points are valid but not quite right in my view. Yeah cash is impacted by stands but you pay these once and then get a long time from them. Additionally rev adds more and more products to stores so the capex is leveraged. Example here is how hair care and tan have gone into Superdrug and now are going into boots and 850 target stores at £0 cost as it fits on current stand or goes in hair space etc

Also the results are the “soft” period for beauty. We are now in peak where cash flow is really generated

Re profits. It will come as the cost base is leveraged and also vertical integration will enhance margins

2,800 extra US stores is a huge order

There’s a misconception that a bid can happen at any price so long as it’s 30% premium to price on the day. That’s not how it works

Beauty has always had these multiples. You wouldn’t know as you buy cheap and wife left because of it

What happened to your revolution post yesterday? Not like the answer from you posting rubbish you don’t understand

This time in the US market and perhaps shows the purpose for the spin off

Waldencast is valued at $1.2bln and below is the make up of the revenue

Waldencast investor presentation, Obagi's projected net revenue for 2021 is $168 million with a 25% adjusted EBITA margin. Milk Makeup's 2021 estimated net revenue is $47 million.

THG paid $60m for Perricone which does $60m revenue (when bought so be higher now) although was online break even at EBITDA although you need to factor that Perricone is produced by Bentley labs which is of course owned by THG

Although spinning off beauty is not my chosen path it is more and more clear that this needs to happen for THG to have the firepower for more M&A

Perricone, ESPA, Christophe Robin and the others are all great brands and are vertically integrated into Bentley and the U.K. lab. On the above should be worth $1.2bln! Never mind LF, Cult and then Dermstore!

Fantastic outlook

New US retail outlet with 2,800 stores! That’s huge when target has 1,800

Then the 350 Boots stores. It’s very very big

Also good to see expanding categories in hair and tanning (which wasn’t expected. We all knew hair was a good spot but the plex range also getting an extension)

Also I think upside from vertical integration will be great

Apparently costs are priced but it’s also impossible to price a share? Say stuff when it suits typical ragtrade not a clue but happy to try and sound clever

Also inflexible lead times? Why isn’t boohoo going for those for all the brands said above? It’s because they are all going into test and repeat model (which rag said is awful and will fail - so why does he hold shares here?)

I think it's been clear (and I've made clear to you) that Ingenuity is about internationalising D2C

Rev Beauty spent 8 years building their UK D2C and millions. It now works so why would they replace it? What Ingenuity has allowed them to do is create international alternative instantly (less than 12 weeks). No having to employ IT consultants to help procure 17 different systems which weren't made to talk to each other and therefore no one is responsible. It all cam out of the box ready in 12 weeks

And FYI the US ingenuity site is Revolutions biggest site now

It's about helping brands go global to bigger markets. Eventually when rev has a US site, Aus, Japan etc etc its UK site will be more of a drain (as will be the only one on salesforce) and then it will convert but for now Rev is set on getting into new markets

Read the same for Elemis this is dead on what they said

Hope this helps Kallu

Just said on their update call they are looking to add even more local sites via ingenuity

It really needs Softbank to buy and that would set the shares off

With Matt's holding, Softbank, Sofina and Merian Chys you're around 40% of the shares. At a 500p share price that's £6.2bln

Softbank buying to get their stake up to 15% or should would save them a chunk of cash if they went for a takeover with Sofina and management. Even if not it would be a huge show of confidence. It's great to see Sofina adding but we need Softbank to really set this off

If not we are awaiting trading. I've my eye on some aftershave so waiting for LF black Friday sale! ha

Q1 to Q3 no growth? Where do you get that from?

Re beauty companies most of those are own brand heavy. This isn’t the case with THG as LF and CB are just website sellers with a slick back end. As I say the own brands are Espa etc. Being vertically integrated adds something but atm we haven’t seen that in higher margins so no gain there yet

The point is that yeah you’d gain some sales revenue but you’d lose the whole argument for ingenuity! The share price at 2x sales = less than what ingenuity can be worth. A whole lot less but now putting myprotein offline would be a death-knell for the ingenuity sales pitch ie all brands need to be D2C and have the data points

No one has said they aren’t growing own sales. At the Q3 update they stated that organic was c.50% and they have given the full year guidance for M&A

No you’re missing the point. The whole shareprice collapse has happened as we have a division called Ingenuity. We think it’s worth billions as it helps brands go D2C online. The big selling points of ingenuity are its complete end fo end and also that ingenuity is completely responsible for LF and Myprotein being the successes they are

It’s literally the sales pitch ie Amazon/ shopify have never built a brand or walked in your shoes we at THG have (multiple sources of this)

Starting to sell offline would be sort of admitting that the D2C wave is slowing therefore why would brands want to go into ingenuity? No point just keep going via department stores etc or via online LF’s etc

So we’d get a few extra million sales which would add a little bit to EBITDA but lose the possibility of ingenuity being valued at the $4.5billion SoftBank see as they want to invest into the D2C wave (they also own Clearco which invests in e-commerce start ups)

So you want to gain an extra 10p/ 20p a share from some extra revenue when if we prove ingenuity we all get an extra c£5 per share

It’s not about just growing sales it’s about how you generate those sales it’s what drives your “multiple” and what investors will pay. It’s not just about making a £1 it’s how you make the £1. Not all £1’s are born equal

If you don’t get this then you shouldn’t be invested here. As this still has a very high multiple on the fact it will grow 20% annually from the shift to online. If they start going offline investors will run as the story set out at IPO would have been a lie

It’s not just about profit it’s how you make the profit

@indy it would make it tough to sell ingenuity which is riding the D2C wave if our biggest retailers have to them go into stores! Sort of a big misunderstanding of what the story to investors is here

Also LF and CB are just stores they don’t own any brands. A HOF store is just a an LF in a physical form

THG owns own brand beauty but these are Espa, mio, Perricone MD and the other (see the beauty Barclays presentation)

Sofina also banged $85m at 596p during the SoftBank placing

Don’t think I’ve ever said that ha I used to work for an investment bank. I know a few people and started chatting on here out of lockdown boredom

I ask for Times articles as I don’t like the newspaper so I’d never subscribe to it. Quite a few people don’t like Murdoc it’s not uncommon

Go on who’s your mate who did this float

Any one know if this service is good and being used?

Your mate just did a NYSE float and you live the Primark dream on the outskirts of slumville? yeah ok

Which friend was this? Not sure he likes meeting you in the cheapest bar for the cheapest drinks while you're in your cheapest trainers and clothes

US tech had a big sell off last night due to worries of rising interest rates but the dollar also shot up which means all our overseas earnings get a big boost

Where is your source for the capitalisation costs? During the ingenuity presentation it appears they were capitalising a lot less than peers

I think it’s a double header of worries

One being high street back and what this can mean and two being labour shortages. Asos today saying they might not be able to keep next day delivery slots. But it’s not clear if this is due to warehouse staff or delivery drivers

THG have Autostore installed at Manchester though so hopefully that has taken a huge chunk of labour requirement away! I think it’s also clear orders are strong at Asos