Member Info for danl90

“ Lol you're going to have to do better than that Nuri. Norges bank one of the largest banks in the world or Marshall Wace a London hedgefund. Keep trying”

Ermmm George Soros and the Bank of England not ring any bells?

I’m just kidding good to see them add but until air freights change this isn’t investable. Management have no plan to fix this. You have to be worried by that. Listen to the presentation. They have no suggestions just “flights will go back up”

Well atm they aren’t and no one is forecasting they will for a while

This is very positive. Their involvement is a clear sign for ESG credibility

Not the point the point (which you can see even though it’s private) is delivery times which for Gymshark, as it has US warehouses, is about half the time of boohoo

So you’re just moving the point of the conversation to deflect. This is a global logistics issue for Gymshark and others as they have the warehouses locally

It’s a global logistics issue that’s caught out those that don’t have the infrastructure of which boohoo is one. Asos return cost in the US you can bet is a lot lower than £2.50 per order like boohoo’s as you have to fly everything back to the U.K.

So stick to the points being discussed

My post is sloppy as you read TGR and think of a mining business? How on earth does that make sense

I clearly say it’s a warehouse management software

Don’t call me sloppy for you being thick

@maxage. Annoyingly you're right here

They had no clue or offer for what Boohoo's solution was going to be. Their only get out of jail is just "planes will go back in the sky and all will be ok and oh we will get a warehouse which will be ready in 18 months time. Until either of things happen we suggest ermmmmm well nothing"

They don't need to solve the global logistics issue they need to solve their own logistics issue. Does gymshark have a problem serving USA? No
Does asos? No
Does Zara? No
Does fashion nova? No

So it's dumb to just say "nothing boohoo can do" as competitors have solved the problem

Management's job is to create shareholder value. That's why you employ them. It's not to run a business for profit. Many businesses sacrifice profit to drive value. This isn't a pet shop where you're running it for cash to buy your shopping

Gym shark has sacrificed profits for years to drive value and it will now pay off

It's not bonkers as so many competitors have seen it coming and fixed the issue

@rebs you might want to read my last post again and that will help you. It's obvious a random mining company is not what I'm referring to

I mean I even say it's an asos software system and say what it does

Brainless? I make actual points backed up by the data and also management's comments and you have come back with what? Just being offensive and an inability to explain yourself

Also TGR is a asos proprietary system which aids in stock management across multiple warehouses. Ie when you shop in UK you see stock from three warehouses (2 UK and Berlin). A USA shopper will see 3 also (USA warehouse and 2 UK)

This isn't easy to do and it was not cheap to develop. What will boohoo have with a US warehouse for PLT? Two static stock pools (it's the only way to do it when you start)

It's concerning that you don't know this. But again you only see the UK market

Come on try and show you have some reasonable insight here

So Mattyboy is a ramper

That's all

This business will have little cash or debt come H1 if they have to bring forward US warehouse which they will

I'm happy with comments on the core market and I'm not ignoring it. But you're ignoring international which is the growth that was helping attract the multiple expansion (it's not just about profit). While you're growing in the UK but declining elsewhere you will never get a re-rating of the multiple

Thanks for the insight re warehouse trading. I think 6 months might be optimistic given boo haven't done an internatiomal site before. They need to recruit, fill with stock and even then this premises will be manual not automated

So you end up in a bit of difficult spot for a medium term where you've a PLT site which is undergoing automation which has a great payback but that was based on it handling all volumes. When US site up and running it won't so that's a lower payback added to a US warehouse which will have lower volumes but be manual. I'm broadly correct there i think? So you've a huge fixed overhead increase for a medium term

Fully agree re Missguided (I actually raised that point on this board - I'm not a deramper I'm honest). I think the issue is not UK though it is again USA where Fashion Nova isn't having these issues

Atm you'd be difficult to say outside of brand and outside of UK that Boohoo is the strongest competition. In the USA it is far from

- not cheapest
- not fastest
- not most convenient
- doesn't have deepest pockets

You really have got to split the business in two when viewing atm as it really is a story of two halves

Just noting ASOS can't a warehouse going in 6 months and be automated and they have a decent track record here. Also Boohoo lack the clever systems such as TGR for international stock profiling and tracking

Hi trading

Declining sales sorry I should say slowing sales but that the slowing is getting worse

So 16% growth in total for 9 months and management think you’ll be 10-14% so slowing even more than the slow down seen over Q3

I’m not fuss if boohoo margins are better than others. It’s not top trumps it’s a stock and you forecast cash flows

The business model was working fine before logistic issues? Hard to say really as the US was tiny for boohoo 2 years ago so not really a lot to go on. And logistics issues were there for last 18 months it was that the consumer would wait for a tracksuit due to lockdown. But now they won’t wait for a dress. It’s not a clear statement as post covid shopping is different go shopping during

Yeah of course they can rent a warehouse. And then fit out? Stock? Get a warehouse management system set up? How long will all that take? I’d agree this is a better route for them to go down. Anything that gets there sooner is better I’d agree

It’s not my logic. I’m asking questions. Do you understand the difference between a question and a statement? What is making you so defensive

“It’s contrived” in what sense. They are three points which have caused the drop to £1 share price. So declaring the points are contrived is again just more upset defensive

But your points
“Generating plenty of money” how? They have £70m after peak. How much is capex next year? And what will accelerated US warehouse cost? So factor those things and the new lower margin and declining growth for a lot of the business is it still cash generative?

Interested in your view on the future not the past

“It’s causing issues for a lot of businesses” is it? Is fashionova having a delayed time servicing the US? Is white fox slower to consumers in Aus?

Dude stop being silly. Ragtrade would belittle every debate into knowledge about cameras or pennywise. I’ll discuss (which is what this board is about) on the points you raise

Just relax. You posted some views. Back them up or admit you don’t understand what you posted or it’s ramping?

If you can’t back it up that’s what it is. One or the other

Tell me a PE house that does this? Apart from a specialist recovery type fund (like Endless, which don’t really do that any more) tell me one.

This is not what PE do at all

The point you’re missing is I’m not even caring about freight costs. The point is declining sales which means lost market share and also the cash burn after capex

Boohoo doesn’t have a decent margin atm. And they haven’t cash fo make it better (unless you can tell me how)

You’re right Richie I don’t have a point I’m asking questions but great attempt to jump on someone’s back. Still no minerals in that tea it seems!

No I’m happy to debate and if I’m wrong I’ll admit it. Just you quote some figures and views

Where’s the back up? Otherwise you’re guessing or ramping

Just be an adult and explain your view. That’a all

Just curious have management modelled growth or decline for Q4 revenue btw?

So you can’t answer? Quotes some figures you don’t really understand and now you’ve no the balls to back them up

I’m asking questions which are fundamental to the investment case. It’s not scaremongering they are just questions just you don’t have an understanding to answer or too scared

They are just questions. See if you’re brave enough after that cup of tea

Ebitda of that for what period? Current year? What’s next year

No debt? Ok have modelled capex for this year and also bringing forward a US warehouse?

Freight costs falling? Not until back end of 2022 (even boo management agree now)

So try again but model FORWARD not based on figures today which are already out of date

No it’s not I also mentioned

NEGATIVE GROWTH internationally. So all that marketing to rappers, love islanders etc equalled = declining sales in all international markets

The board even said they held marketing cost or raised to try and pump sales and guess what? Declining sales

So tell me what but am I missing “out of the box”

Also the EBITDA your quoting is based on what? Flat or growing sales for international?

I’ve never mentioned oversupply

Terrible attempts at answering and trying to be offensive shows you’re both threatened that you can’t answe

@insider is right. There isn’t.

Negative growth internationally (which aren’t going to be fixed short term), rising costs which unlike others they can’t mitigate and U.K. warehouses which can give £4bln of sales although now they have realised overseas sales have to come locally so there’s huge oversupply and cost which will drag margins for years

Until those three things are sorted there’s not much of a business here. Maybe someone wants to try answer those points but as usual on the board no one will

Super low barriers?

At c.£250m a warehouse plus fix costs of £30m to run annually?

Yeah just anyone can get one of those started tomorrow

Think you’ve misunderstood the point. I know he’s at SoftBank and no one atm thinks it’s a bad deal. But what I’m saying is when SoftBank sit down this year and go “what our key investment priorities?” Each exec will obviously champion their own deal. That’s how funds work. The guy who’s found a deal in Poland will push his deal. The guy who has a deal in the fashion space will push that. Why? As it’s their deal and their big fat bonus

When they get down to THG and the “option” (it’s that it’s not confirmed). Who is the voice that’s going to push it?

Funds aren’t daft but everyone has an agenda. And now the guy with the agenda to make this deal happen for us isn’t at the table

Also guys that high level aren’t stupid? You do know how much SoftBank put into WeWork? Or this guy we are talking about was the guy who gave Wirecard £1billion when everyone else was saying the business was a fraud. So I wouldn’t be so sure on that point

What the above proves is exactly my point. Why did SoftBank throw billions after billions into wework? As it was personally myoshi sons deal. It didn’t matter what anyone else said. That deal was happening