Member Info for danl90

Richie "it doesn't matter that you're not doing well in US"

Doing well in the US. Drives your multiple (again you're thinking profit only. DON'T this is a share price not a high st chippy). You need to create VALUE not profit

So over what timeframe will the US sort itself? And over that period how big will the decline in sales be? Also as you say looking forward what will cash returns (not dividends to be clear) look like for investors until this is sorted?

Then how do you get to 350p? I'll wait for that as you'll never be able to explain that unless you go the rag route of "used to be 400p so 350p is nice and possible"

@matty boy - so you pick one sentence and can't answer any of the rest? Ok i'll retract that part (even though it's true that's where the money came from - they aren't known as being the sharpest tools same as the Qatari funds or the Saudis)

But go on have a go at the rest

It will be " the best one yet". Be brave have a go (but you won't)

Go on talk us through how you get that as a fair value

Kallu. Yeah you were right. I mean not for being smart. You post so much rubbish it’s hard to know what your view is as often stuff you share contradicts.

My view was based on the management update in Sep. Things could be mitigated and growth was still there. This update has changed massively

THERE IS NO PLAN. And not one person who’s telling me I’m spouting rubbish has been able to explain the plan yet.

NMW why is Norges bank increasing? As it’s a sovereign wealth fund and they can take a 20 year view.

Why aren’t other long term holders like T Rowe and the Directors buying? I think that’s a lot more telling but you won’t answer I bet

Also the rubbish that norges bank is huge so must be right. Their money is from oil. Not from being smart. And another way to look at this. Their stake in boohoo is a rounding error in their fund. If they lose they don’t care. Is it not a better sign if someone who’s far smaller wages more of their worth?

Who does more research the guy who buys a £100m stake but is worth £1bln (so 10% of the house) or the guy who buys a £1bln but is worth £500bln (so 0.5% of the house). I doubt it’s the top team in the second example. Where as MW will have the full A team on it

Meaning you can buy a Ferrari doesn’t make you a better driver

@dream, how is it cheap? On what metric is it cheap? Thanks

NWM because I’d rather not. I’m happy to leave what I have as it battered enough now it wouldn’t make a great deal of difference. I’d be tinkering for not much gain and also given I have a full time job I wouldn’t have time for trading so much like “philosophy” it was something for the ancient Greeks and wouldn’t suit me “practically”

So not really well thought though that point

Freight costs are really coming down and again the 17th response that said that. So the 17th person that misses the point. Freight costs are bad but it’s the service to customer that is giving you NEGATIVE growth to USA and EU. Even if it gets a little cheaper it’s not getting faster. So the customer just isn’t shopping with you at all

Hope that’s cleared up for the 17th time. You did NEGATIVE growth in US and EU

Wolf, stock is bought before peak and turns into cash just after. YE for boohoo is Feb so you buy stock Sep/ Oct and turn to cash in November (mainly) and then a bit more in Dec. New stock coming through in Dec and Jan for Spring

Thought this was obvious tbh but yeah H2 weighted and cash at the back of this

The confusion in your post is odd. The office is great? You did NEGATIVE sales in the USA and the stock has gone from £3.50 to £1. Tell me where the value of office is? This is a growth stock. You fuel the growth. Boohoo didn’t and guess what the growth has gone

You might save £1 on rent? So what you can grow in the USA at 40% and that £1m is a weeks work. It’s madness that in this mess you think the property is a good idea

Omg £100m in the bank. Read my other posts. And tell me how with profits and that £100m you fund all current capex and a US warehouse? You can’t. That £100m will be gone (rightly so as investment is the right thing to do)

So if you’re invested here as they have “cash on the balance sheet” that will change or have you not thought forward?

How are you unclear why MW are increasing?

Negative growth in US?
Negative growth in EU?
Decreasing margins?
Capex now to be considerably higher than planned?
Far low peak cash balance than usual?

And what plans to management have to address these for the next 24 months?

So go on what is it you struggle to see here?

There have been lots of great businesses that have just “got it wrong” atm that’s where boohoo is. For the next 24 months their big plan to sort this mess is “cross your fingers”

Tell me where I’m wrong

There’s no doubt there are deals to be done if THG were willing

There would be more than a few dozen health, fitness or sports brands that would rip your arm off for myprotein and that’s just thinking in the Western world. MP is also doing great in India and other growth markets and there are often big pools of money there that could have a swing

Beauty is perhaps odder as I’m not so sure there would be a suitor for the whole thing? Or would people rather cherry pick bits they like? I couldn’t see THG selling it piece meal though as sort of admitting the original strategy hasn’t worked which isn’t my view

Ha great shoutout to Mando and your digging!

Want to lay out what PE’s you’ve advised?

Yes you have a deal team but this guy was at the top. The team can run hard as they like but without exec buy in it’s weeing in the wind

SoftBank is even more so like this. Myoshi son threw billions after billions at wework. Why? Because it was HIS deal

If you think there’s no ego in PE/ VC you’ve never worked in it. There’s £1.6bln and there will plenty of other deals who have active exec support. Why would they prioritise a that’s not there own?

But go on explain why so much is wrong

Re the option it's so hard to read

I mean yeah the stock is way down so why pay for 20% of a small division. BUt as THG say they have only delivered above expectations and at H1 Softbank marked a GAIN on their view of the option

I don't think Softbank are going to do it personally as why would they have not filled their boots recently. Also as I shared at the weekend the guy who was in charge of this deal for Softbank is leaving so there will be no one to shout the deal when tehy all get lined up (each investment lead obviously backed their own deal as that's their ego and bonus)

Not sure what you mean sorry?

"Thanks for your concern Danl…. See you at £2 by spring and a nice profit, massively undervalued business. End of"

It's end of as if you had explain why it would be £2 the point would be short lived as you probably can't expect "used to be £4 so £2 must be a bargain"

You can try the casino if you want to double your money faster?

@dannyred I did and I was told by the "know it all" rag that platform isn't relevant, data isn't anything special. It's all about the camera you use and a deep knowledge of Pennywise

I'm long on boo but my point is you can't justify buying more until the business case emerges but atm buying stock in a business (that no one can explain otherwise) is now cash consuming and not cash generating isn't a good idea. It would be if it was on a growth path to cash generation through a strategic plan (like amazon was) but the only plan on offer here from the CEO is "cross your fingers freight costs and times fall."

How many of you would look at your boss at work under this scenario and honestly say they have done a good job or actually have a plan how to get out? You'd be lying if so

@danny yeah they have plans for US warehouse in 2023 so 14 months from now they can't accelerate the whole thing as they haven't the cash or tech to do so hence why it was always in for 2023 before the fall in international sales. That's a long time to get your butt kicked by Fashion Nova (beat you on speed) and Shein (who beat on price). The CEO could only offer on the analyst call that they can accelerate a returns hub but that won't help you sell more. As the issue is "I need a dress for Saturday and it's Tuesday"

PLT would clobber both but it needs to equal on both first before it can

You're the worst poster on LSE

Yes. I have that's exactly what I have done> I say it three or four times. But the money "boohoo makes" is H2 weighted. I'll say again for those at the back - the cash generation period is Oct/ Nov like it is for most retailers. You've just had that period so now for the next 48 weeks the business runs neutral cash after capex (the c.£150m capex you're committed too)

So you've £70m currently which isn't enough so you have to use debt

I think I've been very clear tbh

Lots of levers? A high growth tech business having to do sale and leasebacks as it's short of cash is not a great message given 8 months ago it spent £73m on a London office (which you all said was amazing) so it makes management look foolish as you've bought property one minute and then selling it the next. Hardly seems like "long term planning"?

This isn't me just saying this. Listen to the CEO of Boohoo. Return function is probably the only thing they can advance this year if they go alone. Even before this collapse in profits the US warehouse was 2023 at earliest

"Danl boo have 70 million in cash and lending facility of 100m in place as well.

Pretty sure you can buy a huge warehouse for 70 million without having to go back to the market."

I literally said this. I never said raise cash but I said you will need to use debt. Loads on here list "no debt" as part of their investment thesis (not sure why it's just an equity bridge item)

So my point was for all those who say that are they concerned that this year boohoo won't have net cash. Also in your point you've ignored the bit I said that is you have a committed capex spend already this year of £150m

so I think just saying they have £70m is a little daft re-read my post again. remember cash generation period for fashion is November. You've all that capex to fund but you're ages away from cash

Even if you rent a warehouse there is capex to fit it out and as I say again they don't have a warehouse management system for international

JL's idea of speeding up was a return centre only this year so you're all making stuff up which the CEO isn't even claiming as they have done the work and can't make it fit. Remember the US warehouse was for 2023 originally why aren't they just "getting one"

As it's not that simple or easy. If it was you should all be hitting the roof asking why is it not happening now and only set for 2023! Those are the CEO's word not mine

Both have loads to gain from each other. Asos struggled to gain the brand traction that Boohoo can in the USA. PLT is a star asset

Imagine your shares would start with a £5 pretty soon if you could put PLT onto Asos's platform. Also the HUGE capex saving both would save

But it won't happen I can't see the cultural fit but purely hypothetically it would be a fantastic asset

But Amazon have cash. It’s boohoo that doesn’t

£70m atm and current capex spend (pre US warehouse) is c.£150m. Given you could see EBITDA this year of £120m to £160m you’re tight as cash generation is H2 weighted (it was 3 weeks ago. You couldn’t be further from it)

So boo will have to use debt. They have an RCF of £100m but for so many here debt is terrible and they claim the investment case is great as boo has no debt

And Amazon have loads of warehouses and experience of warehouses across boarders. Boohoo don’t. And don’t think it’s as easy as just having the warehouse which it might be for Amazon now (after 10 years and billions spent) but remember asos first set of profit warnings were all in this issue

It took years to fix with a proper long term solution and many many millions in capex. And boohoo know this that’s why they have only bought U.K. warehouses. It’s not because they were in nice pretty locations. It’s because the next bit is hard

It’s the entire point of THG ingenuity. Huge brands can do it in their home market but fulfilment locally international is hard

Logistics set up is the barrier. It’s the thing that stops the bedroom brands from stepping up. It’s the logistics network that pumping U.K. growth (it’s the only place where boo has all the right ingredients - they have brand and product globally. Only in U.K. do they have fast delivery)

Well if they do they do if they don’t they don’t

But atm what other answer has boohoo got? Management can’t get a US warehouse up and running in the next 12 months. EU warehouse even later

Management have no answer which, even as a boohoo holder, is stopping me buying. You can’t buy a stock with such a huge issue and there’s no plan except stuff they have 0 control over

@Wolf you’re right. Billions and billions every day are in world trade. There are loads of hedge funds, logistics companies and the rest that are all trying to figure it out and all of them are saying they haven’t a clue

Also if H2 is right that’s another 6-8 months of declining USA and EU revenue?

When will it finish because boohoo management haven’t a clue. They said in September it was end of this year and now they are saying it’s through to end of 2022

I mean tbh are you selling this insight you have to hedge funds because there are huge US banks, consultants and hedge funds who all don’t have this answer so please share

Nothing anyone can do about it? Asos don’t have the issue. Gymshark don’t. Zara don’t. Their business model means they are local to the customer all over the US and EU

This error is as boohoo management got it wrong

H2 next year. I hope you’re right but there are some that say prices were always too low and that actually these are high but with a bit off are more realistic (an analyst asks this on the call and points to this being a piece of well funded research) so can you claim that this is wrong?

But as I said (and it’s not addressed) do management have a plan in case they don’t? No there’s nothing