Member Info for danl90

I’m not jibing I presented some views on the guys DCF. Mool asked me to say why and EXPLAIN. I can do that as I understand what I’m talking about and it’s the adult thing to do

Richie said they are wrong but can’t explain why. Also brokers also use DCF models Richie

So again it’s ramping or childish misunderstanding. Richie ticks both boxes

Odd how I can explain my points but others can’t and yet I’m the villan?

Come one Richie have a go. Be brave. Or show us another mining company to compare too!

But he hasn’t presented anything to agree to disagree with

He’s just shouting “wrong” and then saying nothing. Isn’t that like a small child?

Let’s get him to be like an adult and explain where I’m wrong (reasoned debate) and then present a view

The forum works better when clear of rampers, deramper and children

State your point and back it up it’s now adults and people in business work

When they can just shout points but not back it up in terms of share value. These are the people that are gambling

If they can’t explain value or back up their opinion they are either ramping or deramping

As it’s baseless and unsubstantiated

This is Richie

No you’re just taking the cowards way out as continuing just exposes you that’s all. It’s the same play book as rag

“Wrong, Wrong, wrong”

“Ok so you show us”

And then you don’t want to continue! You’re clueless and not even got the willingness to back yourself up except with a terrible example of a mining company and a pub chain! They are totally different

You’ve exposed yourself as clueless and just a ramper. Well done

I thought you’d do better. Coward and fraud

No I get the point. I’m just saying go on then you show us

A DCF is wrong
Asset value is wrong
Yield is wrong

So go on give us the answer

But you can’t because you don’t have a clue! Point out where my view is wrong but again you can’t

One of us a troll and that’s the one that can’t articulate their point

Come on be brave now Richie be brave!

You’ve picked a good company? Are you dumb. It’s an asset business. It’s valued on the lump of gold in the floor!

This is a growth stock. It’s valued on a DCF. This guy even uses a DCF. Find me an example where a GROWTH STOCK is valued not on a DCF

You’ve presented a boozer and a mining company and saying you’re right

Ok value boohoo on assets basis (like the mining company) and on a p/e or yield basis like weatherspoons and you’d get a lower value than the current share price! So how are you right?

Go on show us how you value it then. To cover max’s point. You’re like rag. Just claiming its “wrong” with ridiculous examples but can’t put anything forward yourself

Go on show us how to do it then!

A mining company - wow! Ha

Also I’m not using short term cash flows

Richie stick with the topic of boohoo and explain what is wrong

Richie you keep saying I’m wrong but never a single thing to back it up

Growth stocks are valued on a DCF. This guy has used a DCF

Want to explain yourself once? Or just can’t? I’d say it’s the later

The returns point isn’t relevant in what this guy has done as he’s used historic so returns are at the historic normal. This one- off isn’t in there (it’s pretty obvious but that’s three people now who haven’t got it)

Yes Debenhams isn’t in but it’s too small to model atm. Ie no one know if it will work hence why management aren’t giving guidance on it yet. Debenhams is upside to the model as you would say in the PE world

Anyone think Richie has anything meaningful to add or just a troll with no clue?

Sorry Richie you value growth businesses on cash flows. That’s literally how you do it

No I wouldn’t say weatherspoons is worth 0 as to fix their problem they just have to open the door. No big capex, no trying to win back customers, no input price pressure that they can’t pass on

Also single site pubs have been hurt a lot more or gone so weatherspoon market share would increase where as boo’s equal competition are in rude health and the high street (what’s left is back)

You show you have a deep misunderstanding of valuation but also the differences in business models. A poor choice to pick weatherspoons. It’s been an embarrassing for you

Also it’s a long post as mooler asked me to explain myself which I hope he appreciates I did. Unlike you how can’t explain anything

No my above would model them as historic as that’s how the guy has made the model. He’s taken historic performance which therefore means historic dress return patterns etc

I agree this will normalise and therefore made no comment as I see this part as correct

If anything you could say his model is slightly optimist as we know the last two years had return rates far lower than pre covid which as he’s used as average he’s modelled forward but I left untouched to be balanced

That make sense?

Sorry that's really long but happy to discuss any points. But I think it's fair

20% growth in FY23 is optimistic as you will not have US warehouse or EU warehouse until LATE in that calendar year. So I'd model the 10% overall growth you're seeing now or even flat (ie UK growth offsetting decline in US and EU). His view here is actually ABOVE management's. He's just wacked in what he thinks is prudent and not actually applying the fundamental of what is the issue and how and when it is fixed - so an error

GM% just using an average over last 4 years. This is just dumb and isn't factoring input cost pressure (cotton) and that as Boohoo is a price leader won't raise prices as much as comp. We already know GM% is declining - so an error

Op expenses based as % of revenue is just too simplistic. This is probably the "upside" case for boohoo as they have so much to gain from automation. However in the round you could argue that FY23 & FY24 boohoo will cut marketing internationally (not much point stirring demand you can't meet) and invest that money into automation. The automation savings in the future they can then use that to get market awareness back when US distribution is ready (similar to asos which increased marketing spend but fund this out of automation savings). So what's modelled here is basic but I'd be inclined to think it's fine it's more the profile. And that investment into automation is capex and not P&L. Also the cost re marketing to win back US minds is unknown

Overall EBITDA margins etc is optimistic (if you believe management can get back to growth) but atm Boohoo's mistake is they have £4bln of distribution capacity in the UK but now need distribution elsewhere so that £4bln of capacity given £1bln of revenue is UK is admitting you've got a HUGE amount of idle fix costs. This will drag margins so if you're being prudent you need to factor this in (also most of these UK sites are manual and not automated). Also shipping costs staying high isn't mentioned!

FCF is the biggest error here and this is what I've been saying to you all when you say "it's cheap" - what is the value of cash flows. TBH it's just insane and again he's not linked to the business. He's just picked a percentage which is "conservative as they need to keep buying businesses". It's just wrong. We know (from CFO and CEO) that capex is c.£150m a year annually so you need to amend his figures for that. On this basis you whip out cash in FY22 and FY23 and you would also whip out FY24 as well as as above he's overestimated revenue growth in FY23 and therefore a compounded error into FY24

So on his over optimistic cash he's saying 160p so it would be lower

I think he's been cautious on the multiple point. I'd use 20x as it's own brands

It's a good go but I think the story of recovery to historic performance happens a lot later (Liberum note yesterday also agrees). Also with the poor performance internationally you will see through to FY24 then the capex will be a huge drag and may limit other opportunities ie M

At least he's had a proper go at valuation but there are some pretty big errors and misleading assumptions in what he has done

It's a good try but he's more punching the numbers than actually adding an understanding to what he's doing

No I mean as in the same way it’s just baseless claims and bigoted

Don’t want to blame you for anything else Kallu

Max is right as long as the market is aware then directors can buy. An RNS is the tool for this

Directors can now buy at will. Unless there is something else material which has not yet been communicated to the market

Thanks. I'm certainly not. I always think I'm fair. At the September update I gave a fair analysis and overview and said "buy"

It's turns out though that management were pulling our legs as to current trading and the picture was a lot lot worse and they forecast getting even worse into Dec - Feb. And then no guidance for next year

"Boo has a better margin still than its conpetitors" - I'd say it's DID. With freight costs and other cost and a lack of ability to localise and automate boohoo's margins are now 6% which is a huge cut. That's with H1 performance so you guide lower for a full year. You have to look forward not back

"US was working fine pre-covid" - it was too small of a presence to really know. Sales at that point were tiny. Honest answer is we just don't know but current trading is your best estimate and management telling you it is getting worse and forecasting so (Q4 outturn guidance)

"You say Boo have no plan. I disagree. They have a compelling plan to embed a whole new set of brands. They have a plan to address more of the 500m addressable market that they have identified." - the ADDRESSABLE is probably the key word here. With FAST fashion you need to able to serve customers fast or they aren't really customers (asos makes this point and watch their capital markets day and how much of the world they are NEXT DAY or working day to). Boo this week launched websites in Japan you really think someone is buying and waiting two weeks? No chance!

Asos literally says if we aren't able to be next day or day after it's not in the TAM. This was the mistake of boohoo as they thought customers would buy regardless. They have haven't they have left in droves (and again mangement forecast more to leave)

So on an Asos approach the TAM is just the UK

There is no "plan" in the sense that there is nothing they can do to
- address that international customer
- service that customer (in a timeframe that they will accept)
but wait for airlines to speed up. Waiting on airlines is not a plan. It's hoping

You can have the right product but if it isn't in time for the party they don't buy. Again words from JL (CEO) you need product, price AND proposition hence growth in UK but decline elsewhere

Norges bank for me signals ESG is done. Huge positive for me on this front and huge congrats to the board on this!

No! When we have a world to dominate you want a divi

Melon

Richie how is me asking genuine questions a troll?

It's not it's just you have a lack of understanding to answer

I hold boohoo stock. I'd love to get my money back but I'm not topping up (like T Rowe and like management) as there is no plan here

I'm asking genuine questions with evidence and substance. You just reply by going "stupid" or "troll" so I think by actions one of us is a troll and it's not me

You're the same as Kallu tbh

Not really as if the presentation had been what investors had hoped for the sell-off wouldn't have happened. The sell off wasn't seen as no one knew management would continue to be opaque

It's like saying "technicals say this is going up" and then there's a bid. That's not correlated that's just things that happen to match

The cost of an international return for boohoo is £2.50 (last update). Every single item has to get back to the UK

Asos can fulfil and return to local depots (well local in that EU items go to Berlin and US go to Atlanta)

This, automation and TGR mean that aslong as sales are holding up asos is not seeing the same issues as boohoo or at least to a lesser extent