Member Info for danl90

They aren’t negative assumptions. What are assumptions?

Is growth slowing/ negative in US? Yes
Is the CEO saying it’s unlikely to correct until the delivery time is better? Yes (from the Ceo)
When can the delivery time be better? US warehouse which is late 2023 or more likely fully operational 2024 or plane slots increase, again industry saying not for a long while (analyst asked this to JL on the call and he was blindsided tbh)

So what I am doing is using these FACTS and then making assumptions. Where as others (not a dig but guy in video for example) are assuming 20% and then you say “ok why 20%?” “We prudent based on historical” (this is exactly what guy in video did) and it ignores the points above entirely

You use the FACTS to drive assumptions. This is how you FORECAST and to substantiate my point this is exactly the reason management haven’t given guidance for short term so are they also giving “negative assumptions” or did you not know they had pulled guidance (which is why the shares fell)

This year all and all hasn’t been a bad year (started fairly) well. The sell off is managements pulling of guidance over short term

All my point is is their (managements) point

You mention you’re a marketer so I’d actually appreciate your view

On the US (this question was asked by an analyst on the call) given you can’t serve customers. Would be better to stop marketing to US as no point stimulating demand you can’t serve or keep going and burn cash but then less of a hill to climb when you’re ready to go?

T4g

Fine to have a different assumptions but like we all say on here is when a fund buys “I bet they have done their DD”

So you have to substantiate the assumption (this is DD). So fine 20% growth. How does that model? U.K. at 30%? But you can’t put growth to US or EU as that’s not happening

Management themselves are saying it’s slowing to c.10-12% for Q4

So 20% comes from what basis? This is DD

With the US resuming again if you were to DD that assumption you have to overlay what you can see to substantiate. All the industry talking heads say it’s not happening for 12-18 months so that whipes out most of FY24 given you then need to ramp back up marketing for ground you’ve lost there’s a lead time to that

Also US warehouse isn’t until late 2023 so again misses most of FY24

It far too bullish to say 20% year after next on any substantive basis. You can say “wishful thinking” and I’d hope you’re right but this is what DD is

But that’s just one point in the model. As I say the capex is the biggest

Rag nothing has been in hindsight at all

I said US distribution was what was needed when everyone was getting hard ons about the London office

P Morgan and dannyred both have said I called this

You’re the One who has to reduce arguments down to stuff that happened in the 80’s or cameras

It added no value to anything. And when I said “go on then rag you tell us” it was same as Richie. You then “can’t be bothered”

Which is actually code for don’t know. You just couldn’t face that I schooled you on your life’s work as you run a tiny business of 8 people and think somehow you know boohoo

This is the guy who said
- test and repeat is a bad model (it’s about 75% of boohoo group)
- mark down pricing is a bad model (it’s the model for all of boohoo)
- tik tok is rubbish
- platform? What’s that it’s just a website (wow and look at the mess now)
- data, again what’s that topshop we’re doing that in the 80s (If anyone is thinking companies now are doing with data what businesses were in the 80s then tahts all you need to know about the insight you’re getting from that person)

I don't think it's a non issue. Everything is price elastic. My protein has jumped a lot since Christmas so it's visible but I agree it's for all protein providers

With vertical integration we need to see this as an opportunity. MP should keep prices low and squeeze smaller competition who can't afford it or don't have the vertical integration to make savings elsewhere

Short term hit for shareholders for long term market share

Also good to see the analyst mention ingenuity

But the guy in the video they are “errors” as the basis for calculating them is incorrect ie just using historic growth when you’ve just posted a sharp drop or decline

If you handed that to a PE firm the first thing they would do is laugh at you and say “deals off” as it wouldn’t live through DD

You have to model off the back of current trading but also what is known as issues or opportunities. The guy in the video isn’t doing that. It’s more like he’s done a “earning DCF model” but no IB would send that out the door with that revenue line

Also the capex is criminal

I know these things as (although none of you believe) have done this as a job (buy and sell side) on transactions which are fairly hefty

@trading we can’t agree to differ as Richie won’t share his views. There’s nothing to differ on (I know mad as most adults when they disagree also share their substantiated point of view)

But we are starting a fresh. He won’t bowl in anymore just yelling wrong and he’s going to give nice clear point like an adult and I’ll be a bit nicer in return

Get ready Richie is sharing some (which i anticipate to be) great insight

I’ve never called anyone wrong. They share a point of view I share mine. It’s easy

I share my point of you and you can’t explain yours. It’s really simple. Just shouting wrong makes you a troll

You’ll find loads of examples where I and other sharing views and in each you come bowling in shouting wrong but then just do nothing but get offensive (our first exchange was this to a tee)

So ok then let’s start a fresh like adults? Richie want to explain where I might be wrong on my points in the DCF and how you would do it

(As adults)

Or do what boohoo do and use test and repeat model so you have a view of demand before you order. Less risk and don’t need to “guess” when to turn the tap off

The above is what boohoo do what rag said is what businesses did in the 80’s (like pennywise)

Richie, again you’re butting in. Yesterday moola asked me a question you got all angry and upset as you don’t understand and it makes you lash out

Again today someone else has asked to see what the thread was about (they also agree you have to back up your points our it’s just ramping) and again you’ve lashed out

It’s ok. Admit you can’t explain yourself as you don’t understand any of this. Like I said to rag these aren’t appreciation tokens. They are shares in a business and it’s value. If you can’t value it then don’t buy them

You won’t explain why and wrong (comments on DCF) and how it should be done as you can’t it’s that simple

And you’re threatened by realising you can’t

It’s not cost! It’s speed!

Market prices in the costs. The big shock was the revenue miss due to incorrect proposition

@pipedreamer appreciate that and here’s the tread. A guy on YouTube has used a DCF to give a value to boohoo shares. I was just pointing out some errors in the assumptions

Richie screams “wrong” but then won’t say why or what else should be done. I think he either doesn’t know how to value a share (same as rag on this so I don’t know how you’re “investing” as you don’t know what you’ve bought) or 2) doesn’t understand a DCF as he says I’m looking at “short term cash flows” when a DCF looks at 10 years and then into perpetuity (which means forever Richie) I’m just saying the errors are in the early years but they compound (add themselves through for Richie) the model or 3) he just an angry guy who can’t use word to articulate (explain for Richie) himself

@moola you wanted my points on this I just wondered your view? We’re you interested or was it just to see if I could back up me saying the guy was wrong?

I think this got knocked from Asos but also in case of lockdown

Good thing is is this is a true omni channel business and that’s very very rare

Big things coming for the USA

Just need to see the margin come through from the acquisition but also cash. Once we have invested for the new USA customer

I know Adam wants independence but id love to see someone take a stake in this. Or even just have a go q

Why ignore dream machine? Everyone is able to have a view and an opinion. I seem to be the only one who welcomes that

The only thing is like common sense or principle if you have an opinion or a view you back it up with a basis or foundation.

If you want to claim someone else is wrong. That’s fine also . Just explain why (like I did for moola when he asked and someone else when gbeh asked the returns normalisation point)

I seem to be the only one who does this. Richie and rag just yell wrong and as I say when you ask them to explain they wave the white flag. This is ramping or proves they are clueless

If not ask yourselves why else won’t they venture an answer or explanation

But they can’t. Richie is a great example of someone NOT to listen to

Partnership announced on LinkedIn with ingenuity. A SoftBank backed business so clearly discussions and teams are working together

Still doesn’t mean they will stump up the money but it’s positive

No they do want to engage. I never spoke to Richie first. I don’t care for him as he has no opinion other than “ramp”

Read the above or where others ask for my view and I can share it and discuss in a normal way (you’ll see 5/ 6 examples the last few days)

It’s guys like Richie who just shout wrong and as I say then wave the white flag when it comes to their time to put a statement down

Try it for yourself. Ask Richie to explain why I might be wrong on any of the point he chooses. Give it ago. I can bet you he will say something like “not worth the time” or “I’m not bothering”

It’s ramping or deramping and we all hate it don’t we? So call it out. Back your word and call it out

Yeah I can't see the issue

Some people trade technicals (so short term) and some trade fundamentals (so medium and longer term). Whats the issue?

The issue here is some people (like the boohoo board) don't understand and short term momentum is a reason for long term fundamentals which is just bonkers

You're one or the other angumented with differnet horizons. they aren;t the same

So go on then richie prove me wrong then - try explaining yourself. Tell us how you do it

I never said there was one way. But you haven't shown another have you? I was replying to moola about the errors in the video why do you find that so upsetting? Are you the guy in the video?

"the problem is he can’t accept any other conclusion than his own" but you haven't given one is the point. You've said nothing but "wrong" and then wave the white flag when asked to do it

@wolf no accountants done't value businesses. But agree there is more than one way. So I'm asking Richie to explain. Or do you want to have a go?

I used a DCF. The guy in the video a DCF (which i was asked to comment on) I was told it was wrong so please ask richie to correct me. What's wrong with that? He said it's wrong i'm asking ok well explain why. But he won't. I did it for Moola above

Again why am I the villan for explaining myself? You all hate derampers so don't you also hate rampers?

I'm asking for a mature conversation which is what the board is about and richie can't do that but shout wrong

OMG ragtrade is back! How is Pennywise doing? He and richie will get on well as it's the same playbook

Scream "wrong" but then wave white flag when they have to explain themselves

“ I imagine all the brokers with much higher targets than here all have inboxes full of messages from him calling them idiots too,”

The irony here is that what you have done to me! Well done you’ve even offended yourself

You’re sinking lower