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Is there a pause in buybacks? No RNS.
So it looks like the decline in the share price was PI like us. I have bought back in what I had sold.
This has passed oversold...?
BushyTailed could be right. No mention of costs and inflation. You need to work it out. Its negative. Share price that was overbought is heading towards oversold.... then back up again at some point.
Now the forward gas price is pointing lower and lower, we are all talking about selling gas (seen it in other forums) but its the buyer of these assets that will make a killing... the time to sell gas was in December.
"Soon" we all know gas won't recover imminently. Gas is always going to swing to extremes depending on the season and weather. Stocks are geared plays on the main commodity and the main commodity here is oil.
Its late and "heavy oil" should have typed "oil".
happysparrow, AXL is very much heavy oil and is why I am adding here and not into gas plays like SOUC, DEC, I3E etc... The amount of gas at AXL is reassuringly low making AXL one of the best plays on a strong Oil price.
Acerage and reserves are great and this will reflect in the SP in the long run, but the forward gas price is looking really low and I3E is one of those stocks we all need to buy in on weakness that we are likely to see all the way into summer before moving up. If you want to win on the oil price in the short-run you are better with some ETF's like SPOG, WENS or ENG. Or better recycle those profits into I3E but slowly into around August/September.
So it reads that CN will be lower risk and flow higher to provide the same net to Arrow, however, flow rates are re-assuringly conservative. The drilling program looks very simple. The next drilling program given the net cash could provide a step change in valuation. Holders here should hold for at least 5 years and I have recently started adding.
I believe it's time to move past the 'Jam Tomorrow' mentality and focus on the upcoming year up to 2024 of performance. That's what truly matters to institutions seeking a significant increase in share price. I agree with Malky that the Board of Directors has made excellent M&A decisions in terms of spending and return, and we must continue this trend.
I think the Full-Year 2022 Results on Tuesday, 25 April 2023 should be pivotal. It looks like on Friday we weeded out weak shareholders (even I sold a little, I am human too!) who've all contributed to the recent poor sentiment. In the short run, stock prices tend to fluctuate from overvalued to undervalued. Some argue that we're currently at a fair value, but I disagree. In fact, we're undervalued. Looking back to when we had been 100p, it's clear that we were overvalued given the unknown old rusty state of the Montara Venture FPSO. However, that's no longer the case. Montara was bought for peanuts and more M&A should follow...
Yes currently reading MC post in the bath.
Worth also reading The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. That is next once I have scrubbed my feet.
marineclark you could try and buy AXL who are very high COS mini with there low-risk onshore wells, profitable, net cash like JSE and more dependable and a tiny market cap. You may ned to fill in the Canada paperwork. If you "win" then consider buying back here in the future in time for an M&A? Good luck.
Marineclark time scales are very short-term and emotionally driven. I can see very little chance of downside news from here and can see 120p by the end of the year.
Montara may have caused the drop but I don't believe it to be the main driver of future growth. Growth has always come from M&A here. The markets will at some point start to look to the future as they are forward-looking.
Is Carrizales Norte higher risk reward?
"Things are getting back together for JSE after the trauma of Montara but production is slowly recovering, 10/- boe/d in Q1 becomes guidance for the rest of the year of 13,500-17,000 boe/d which includes Sinphuhorm and is a creditable increase.
Reserves wise as at 31 December 2022, the Group had 2P reserves of 64.8 mmboe, a 45% increase compared with year-end-2021 and a near six-fold replacement of production in the year, mainly due to Akatara reclassification plus the acquisition of CWLH fields offshore Australia.
Operating costs are up by 6% but it could have been worse, inflation has taken its toll and Jadestone are good at cost control. Capex is guide for $110-140m apparently the largest in the company’s history, primarily for Akatara and Malaysia but hopefully plenty of M&A into the bargain.
Happier times for Jadestone who report next week, I won’t be at the results meeting as the company have gone up against Petrofac and refused to cede and I can’t make dinner in North London either! Stays in Bucket List for quality of management right across the board and of course a great portfolio of assets. "
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/04/oil-price-savannah-serica-jadestone-and-finally/
Looks like full production at Montara will be slower to come online to full capacity. This will dip down before moving on up. Looks like they are being very conservative this time round and believe we should beet guidance all going well.
My theory on why we are down is OIEC funds having to sell in particular The Pacific Fund via Baillie Gifford. Being an OIEC it has to sell when customers withdraw and the withdrawals over at Baillie Gifford there are extremely large.... though I cant say its the Pacific Fund. We are talking about £16m of assets not much.
Love Nigel, an honest man.
Hate the share price. WT*!
The future production numbers are slightly lower but does not justify a fall. Bit late for recession fears as they swing from 40% to 60% according to analysts? I was in here for a smoother ride than this. I suspect as dividend was not increased due to paying off lending and this video hints at imminent M&A. Executing on M&A is the only way this going up.
IMHO all hints at a copper pre-development play. A time line around a new copper play makes total sense and a real driver for the share price. I don't think its AAZ assets as they are not low-cost enough. It will need to be an open-pit or another tailings to be a fit for CAML.