Member Info for Danger_Mouse

Germany is now 23% of group gross profit and was 9% according to MrScruff. It's a growth company hidden in a boring telco. Next year it could be over 30% and that makes a huge impact on growth without the UK.

Expect zero growth from the UK - so anything positive is extreemly good for GAMA.

Expect Euro growth - so anything negative is bad for GAMA. Germany is the growth engine. Good luck tomorrow.

Depends on the time horizon. Long term, gold still looks like one of the strongest bets. This morning, right now, we’re in the middle of only a weak, unconvincing bounce off the 200-day moving average. Short term, it’s anyone’s guess. If price breaks below the 200-day, that usually signals further downside rather than a quick recovery. We are at a pivotal point... if we get a convincing rise this week that is bottom and this would have been an awesome buy point.

The technical outlook for physical gold is looking quite bearish right now. The pullback at the end of January did a lot of damage to the chart, and in hindsight this kind of move was not entirely unexpected.

If gold drops below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which would imply roughly another 5 percent downside, it would open the door to a deeper correction. That said, it would not necessarily mean the trend is completely over, just that the structure has weakened further. We are not at that point yet.

On the fundamental side, the case for holding gold has not really changed. The key drivers, such as central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and the broader macro backdrop, are still in place. Short term factors like a stronger dollar or interest rate expectations are putting pressure on price, but they have not broken the bigger picture.

Overall, this still looks more like a correction within a larger uptrend rather than a full reversal. If support holds, there is a reasonable chance gold can stabilise and start moving higher again in the near term provides a perfect set up for the news flow from THX.

The US economy remains resilient, people are confident there, and that is ultimately what drives global markets if recession hits.

The recent pullback in gold and gold miners looks far less like a change in fundamentals and more like a function of positioning. These assets had been among the strongest performers, so naturally they became a source of liquidity, capital is being taken off the table and redeployed into areas offering better short-term risk/reward.

In other words, this is rotation into re-balancing not necessarily a reversal.

Segilola margin is incredibly wide protecting us from the energy shock. Would have a big impact on Douta but that is a long way off, though I would expect some sort of rise in the build costs but Segilola margin is incredible while the US sorts their mess out.

This is a stock heavily driven by retail sentiment, so it’s important we stay precise and grounded in what we’re saying on forums.

The key issue right now is the strength of the USD due to the war, which is a headwind for gold and, by extension, gold miners. Cost pressures as a percentage of margin are worth monitoring, but they’re not the primary concern at this stage. Likewise, the RNS noise looks more like a short-term factor rather than something fundamentally changing the investment case.

Based on History in a war scenario this is what happens:

Phase 1

War / supply disruption

* Oil spike

* Inflation fears

* Yields up

* USD up

* Gold sideways or weak

* Equities volatile / often fall

Phase 2

Growth slowdown spreads

* Recession fears

* Yields fall

* USD peaks

* Gold breaks higher

* Gold miners begin recovering but may lag gold

* Equities weak / bear phase risk

Phase 3

Fed easing cycle

* USD declines

* Gold strong / continues rising

* Equities recover / new bull cycle begins

HooBuy, do you not know anything about South America? Many countries there along with the United States are net producers of fossil fuels, not major importers.

Note the first four years (oxide phase) are much cheaper: AISC about $1,493/oz (Payback in .11 months). Later in the mine life AISC up to about $1,890.

Today’s RNS is confirmation rather than a new timeline.

The “first production targeted for early 2028” timeline was already stated in the 26 January 2026 PFS announcement. Today’s RNS simply files the formal NI 43-101 technical report that supports those same numbers and timelines. No negative news here = good news as we wait.

I understand Adw198 that is fair. So something like this:

1. Segilola underground drilling update expected before end-March 2026.

2. FY2025 results and Q1 production update expected April 2026.

3. Douta financing package and investment decision expected H1 2026.

With spreads this wide, it’s pretty easy for the market makers to make money.

And on the timing: there’s a lot of speculation flying around. There’s no real reason we shouldn’t still get both sets of news this month, as planned.

No one is saying that is right... but it appears to be the way. AJ Bell are one if not the best brokers so it is hard to argue against it.

Lessons learned for everyone. Never seen that before. Thanks for sharing!

1. You bought the shares very close to the ex-dividend date.

2. The dividend had to be transferred via a market claim.

3. Market claim payments are taxed differently, so 25% tax was applied.

Hi, both. The gold price and time scale will be an important factor in determining this. If gold continues to rise and Segilola production stabilises or gradually declines over time, the additional ounces coming from Douta and potentially from Cote d’Ivoire in the future could become a larger driver of group earnings. Segilola will likely remain the most profitable mine due to its strong margins, but over time the new projects could contribute a growing share of EPS as Thor evolves from a single-mine producer into a multi-asset gold company. For short term share price upside Segilola is key.

Gold tends to grind higher when there’s something for the market to worry about. It feeds off uncertainty. But once a big risk event passes, you often see a pullback as the fear premium comes out. Then the cycle repeats.

Shorts reduced again.

Not been quick to reward THX? It's up +324.39% over 1-year, the news has been the principle driver of outperformance vs others. New here has a good CoS to materially add years to the bottom line that will be attractive to institutions and M&A. Disappointment, possible, but the risk is skewed very much to the upside both historically on SP performance and on valuation. Prudent investors would have taken profits from the likes of PAF, or 2BUL and put some in here.

Let’s also remember there’s no stamp duty to factor in.

That said, I broadly agree with liquidity, but there is liquidity to sell this week be it at a spread. This isn’t a trading vehicle, nor is it liquid enough to justify frequent rebalancing. It’s better suited to patient investors rather than active traders.