Member Info for DanBrown83

You said RNS yesterday, you were wrong and got your own thread deleted by false information
The RNS today from company contains little information, we seen Panoro’s RNS yesterday, ADME have moving forward a 6% interest and Pandora have over 12%, at best, full scale production revenues built into as the deal is very much backloaded it’s current value of AJE is $5m with potential of a fully developed OML113 would give a value of closer to $17.5m, considering the Panoro deal comes with wider input in the running of the phase 2 project, you would expect their purchase price to be greater than someone just buying a small slice, petrNor are looking to become operators as well, which in terms of income provides a far bigger economic interest in the project long term, the dates are petty significant and with the date of 30th June 2019, it’s took months to get to where talks are and I wonder if this deal is what made the Sheikh leave ADME, there was a lot on here who said him and his rich friends would fund / part fund phase 2 so maybe he wanted the operational side of AJE
I have said that a current AJE is worth maybe £1m and adme stake in it is worth maybe £10m

How’s it boom, we know this is factual from yesterday
ADME hold an equity investment of 5%, Panoro’s economic value is over 12%, the full deal is with them taking a substantial role in phase 2 if it progresses, this is totally different to what adme holds in AJE
8p possible

They never gave an update on the previous uplift
it just appeared in the Financial Accounts
Very doubtful we will get a lift update unless they tag it on to another RNS like they did earlier this year

Im going to relate to this article from EnergyVoice
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/210313/petronor-to-enter-nigerias-aje-kick-start-development/

In the first half of 2019, revenue reached $6.3mn from the Aje field, with operating costs of $4.19mn. Once further costs and depreciation have been stripped out, it reported a loss of $82,000 for the period. The loss has narrowed over the years.

This is, if accurate, a pretty solid foundation for calculations - we have from RNS's know that the 2 sales have generated over $6m in revenue would seem pretty close

I don't see how you can add a potential of future income to a valuation when there is no defined strategy in place to move it forward
The calculation should be based on the Full Economic Interest (not just stake) - so 12% not 6.5% is more relevant
This deal represents a lot bigger transaction in terms of Phase 2 than just buying the current 6.5% stake - it invloves them becoming a 45% Operator in the future when legalities are sorted

I agree Kentan - ADME should sell if they were offered the same deal - just revised in regards to %age ownership
but it does seem the potential of AJE Phase 2 is still a long long long way away from any real update on it

how am i been negative
$10m for 12% equates to $5m for 6%
simple maths in my opinion
can you give any consideration for Phase 2 which there has been no update on.
PetroNor are small fry and are paying in shares
PetroNor are looking to take a lead role with Phase 2, these agreements are going to take months and the long stop date is 31st December 2020 (so don't expect any progress on Phase 2 until mid next year realistically)

Panoro have sold just over 12% ostake of AJE for $10mUS
ADME has circa 6% Economic Interest in AJE - so valued at $5mS
Convert $5m is £3,860,000 at todays rate
add in circa £1m cash - once all funds received
Say £5m Value for ADME at over 60m Shares - say 8p based on Panoro figures as been fair value

Stefan Oliver departs - excellent news for shareholders
Not overly convinced on the Non Executive appointments - neither have any wow factor
Peter Francis is 67, experienced and looks a decent chairman - i'm not ageist but at 67 i doubt he is a long term appointment
Manuel lamboley is at ZARK CAPITAL - so i assume hes appointed to look after their investment
his past is a little chequered - International mining & infrastructure corporation plc albeit i cant see him listed (just mentions it on RNS) is in liquidation
Alba Minerals are an investment flop - i was excited about the HH (UKOG / ANGS prospects) but not anymore
African Aura Resources (UK) Limited also dissolved
Doesn't seem to be any success stories with him

Everyone knew he was part of the company in Liquidation when he was appointed
A lot of the talk previously was now OO is MD - ADME would go after EER's share of AJE from Administrators using his knowledge to get a better deal

Zulu is well worth it (especially with the potential to increase the confirmed reserves) but i lost faith in GR well over a year ago to stick with PREM
i was stung from 0.35 to 0.17 due to RHA (which i still cant get the numbers to work)
i also think CIRCUM has very good potential
Its good to see the recovery and best of luck - especially the the ones who had to withstand 0.02 and less

EER are in Administration - wouldn't call that successful

100k got cancelled today
200k sale yesterday on the bell
so more sells in that period

Holdings increased and then decreased - basic trading pattern as expected

I think primary bid costs maybe higher, I think they are 10% off hand from other companies deals, in regards to recent premium placing, I have used figures based on all been received, I think net is 800k with a 4% fee added (this is a friendly placing and a lot cheaper)

Either way, gut still says you can’t buy much in terms of income producing oil and gas asset for £10m let alone £1m or less

If you think ADME can pay in shares, this just further dilutes shareholders stake even more

i'm not shorting or working for shorters - i assure you of that
PEEL are in control - they raise it and lower it as they see fit

low volume
Peel raking it in today

Cash reserves - few facts
End of June cash reserves - £84,000
Admin Expenses have been reduced to £511k for 6 Months (£85k per month cash burn)
lets forecast to December 2019
£84k cash at start of period
£500k Cash Burn for July to December
£500k raised (before expenses say £25k) so £475k
£832k to be raised (before expenses say £32k) so £800k

So probably £800k by end of subscription without having to come for more funds

The reason they are maintaining that holding is due to the lack of PI involvement - they are controlling the price but they can't make people buy or sell, their position is mirrored by the confidence of PI's, their increased shareholding is really a testament that PI's are generally selling
Anyway, lets see what happens with the Investment / rest of placing
You mentioned Tower Resources on here with Peel and see what has happened their is shocking (23p to 0.45p) since Peel Hunt became an 'investor' - i have never looked at TRP until you mentioned it

In regards to Peel - look at todays minimal trading
on the basis that PEEL control the book here and are the MM most likely to do the trades
on them 11 Trades, Peel have increased their holding here by £66,337 but also made a cash positive return of £2,731
not bad for a small day - £2,731 richer and have more shares than at start of day
now think what happened on heavy trading days and you can understand how much they really made and why it is likely there average is a lot lower than anyone here thinks