Member Info for DanBrown83

Thats true
the CEO or anyone with inside knowledge of any material information is not allowed to benefit by buying/selling shares
i said this a few weeks ago when people were saying why OO hasn't bought, chances are ADME are in a closed position if they are negotiating with multiple investment opportunities

Peel have increased number of shares but due to dilution they have a smaller percentage

Halifax gave bad loans
heavily invested in Self Cert Mortgages at 95% Loan to Value
heavily invested in 85%+ LTV BTL Mortgages
All went bad when property prices (over egged by valuers in a rising market) fell overnight

its your money and your investment that you are risking by investing on what is an unknown

E_AL - i totally agree it will be voted through
but the question is as an investor, how much you believe in that OO and the ADME team will invest wisely in a project(s) that will make significant income to justify the capital raises, past experience of all the Directors in ADME doesn't show me any confidence in this, so we will wait for after the meeting to see if any investments are put to Shareholders

i'm not holding
when Sheikh was involved i was more interested at what the next step was going to be, its never been seen where a minor royal gets involved, he has other involvements in the sector which we could see from his website and it was more of what if, but i'm a cautious investor (been burned badly on some (FRR / PREM) and made money on others AGP / JOG / AMC / 88E)
years investing in AIM i now try to invest in undervalued stock with a concrete plan for a future, with assets i can appraise my way (not an optimistic company report)
I'm cautious on AJE for a number of reasons, 1. MXO tried to offload it a few years ago so the BOD were never overly keen on this in first place, 2. the current two production wells run dry end of 2021 and with no profit share until circa March 2020, there is only an 18 month period (c6 lifts) where there was any money due back, based on last lift RNS thats c$3.6m (£3m) of net revenue to ADME with Overheads of c£2m, that leaves c£1m Net to company in next 30 months after expenses without any further investment, 3. Phase 2 development plans (just the plans) have been delayed continually) and the Operator has previously indicated CapEx of over $1bn, while there is a huge resource at AJE, there doesn't seem to be any solution to this problem, none of the AJE partners are particularly large and have the availability or the strength (IMHO) to borrow this amount of money without very restrictive covenants and higher rates

This brings us back to the future and realistically its a bet on the confidence of the BOD to bring an investment opportunity that makes long term profits and justifies the potential mass dilution that is to voted on in less than 2 weeks
i am also of the belief, that if it isn't voted through, there is no long term future at adme.

I made a similar statement 18months ago on Valirix regarding the dilution, they had Conversion notices to adhere too but the ShareCap would be breached, it was either (accept the mass dilution and a willing seller getting shares at 20% of current price or vote down dilution and face the bigger problem of liquidation and losing everything) neither was great but the lesser of two evils was to have the shares hit the market

In the point of Peel Hunt, they are big enough to sit on a Shareholding of this size, £500k is less than a weeks profit (£36m last year) so i doubt there in any panic - there current stratergy seems to be pick up shares under 6p and offload over 6p (judging by Holdings statement last few weeks
One of the Market Makers would have to taken the Sheikh's shares on, its their job, its they set the price of where they feel comfortable, hence peel agreeing 10p when the SP was over 16p (literally a 40% discount)
We will see what the investments are, any update on AJE if that happens.
The problem is that there is nothing concrete (except small stake in AJE) and investments they are reviewing

Thing is, I don’t believe Peel have a big problem, they took 13m shares at 10p and flogged over 6m at between 12p and 16p,
So they spent 1.3m, and probably sold that infamous day 850k worth and still held circa 7m shares at c450k, they were the ones buying at 4-5p and bought c2m, say 90k in price, they have done some selling and buying inbetween but they have over 9m shares at probably no more than 550k and that’s working on averages, day sheikh sold there was a lot more trades at over 14p than below

The thing on PEEL is , they bought the shares at 8.07am at 10p, they had a full day in which from the TR1 they offloaded 6m shares at between 12p & 16p - they never informed the market straight away - this for me is the real suspect about the transactions with Peel
They likely were the ones who bought at the 4p on the bell increasing the number of shares by circa 2m in the last month

Peel Hunt have increased, then decreased and increased again
still for me seems they are the ones doing the trading, looks like they are picking anything up under 6p but offloading anything over 6.5p (last week) there strategy i very much doubt is for long term hold but we will see
don't understand that one trade at 5.3p (650 shares)

i actually agree with slowly slowly
they can't announce deals they are not in a position to buy - so need funds first
its a huge gamble on what might happen

That is one guarantee (IMHO)
It is too big, too lucrative, product in demand
don't know who will be at the helm or the beneficial owners at the time but it will be built

its worked out well for GKP - they are undervalued imho for what they have because of the Stigma
in essence, SXX has become the next GKP (which was very much at one point a PI's Favorite Share) like Sirius now

fair value now closer to 8p, good positive news today
one RNS away from double figures imho

$500bn bond ???

Signed it, number 863
Personally, I think Boris Johnson is more likely to support a venture like this than the previous government

Should of done an open offer placing at 8p, would of been filled by UK investors easily, the end result is too much too worry about a few extra shares which can be bought back in 6 or 7 years when operating and making profits, last 9months has showed the inexperience of the BOD and the markets, there inability to make appropriate key decisions is going to cost most PI’s and people’s retirement pots, I think government needs to step forward, use some of the EU savings to invest in SXX, create jobs and increase exports moving forward has a lot more benefits for the economy

This is why this share is a 'private investors favorite'
there has never really been a development so much in the public eye of this type of development from start to finish - blame the internet, but so many small PI's have been caught up in the hype
I'm a big believer in the long term viability of this project - albeit there a lot of short term hurdles to navigate in the meantime

off memory - i think it is spot price at a premium of Crude Price due to quality of oil
but we should have just delivered a month or 2 ago (albeit no lift update) and next one not likely until late October / November
The Oil Price (while might fall) when Saudis are back up to full operation, i can't see it going back into the 60's until they get their reserves back up

Oil 10% up