Member Info for DanBrown83

slight increase in holdings

corruption is a big problem with all of Africa in general
it is probably the biggest untapped resource for natural resources - but its who you know and how much you pay the right person

personally he comes across as poor
the main thing mentioned imho was the comments on PetroNor and they expect to triple production in the medium term

your calculations were based on facts of historic revenue (2017 & 18 and forecasts for 19) (so you need to use Revenue Interest)
this was the whole point of using the sale of panoro at 12% for consistency in Value of deal , Panoro have a completely different interest in AJE, ADME are purely an equity interest

Panoro have a economic interest of 12%
ADME have a current 5% Interest
3000bopd x 12% is 360 bopd
3000bopd x 5% is 150bopd

This is pretty much what both have received as a share over the last 18 months

also it has been RNS'd what the current BOPD is (just over 3000bopd consistently) so its very hard to support your calculations
based on 3000 bopd with a circa 300,000 - 350,000 (c300,000 in June / c 350,000 in March) - we are working on 100 to 115 days per uplift (so between 3-4 a year)

warrants at 0.6p (not 6p)

I'm surprised no Peel Hunt holdings RNS today
where did you get increased choke information Kentan - i cant see anything released regarding this?

i would rather pay a premium for something i like the look of

i haven't bought any
but i always said Phase 2/3 looks decent - if it progresses and a realistic development plan can be put in place with the correct finance
my gut was it would never happen
my gut with PertoNor is they haven't bought this for a few uplifts (but i still think it will be mid next year by the time anything tangible is concluded)

It is positive overall
There are a number of crucial points though
The value of the transaction includes obtaining operational rights (not just pure equity stake as per what ADME has)
The value of the transaction is heavily weighted in Phase 2 operations
The time taken to start Phase 2 now relies on government support (which they are allowing 14 months to get) - so timescales have been hit really hard
The positive is, it would seem the new partner is highly motivated to get phase 2 operational while it always seemed the current major partner wasn't bothered and deemed it to costly

Think Peel will likely increase their holdings yesterday
Think that will be RNS'd around this time monday

Peel Hunt don't buy / sell in bulk
Peel Hunt are the middleman
If their are bulk buys, that is a PI buying from primarily Peel Hunt
If their are bulk sells, that is a PI selling to primarily Peel Hunt
But Peel Hunt are not in charge of how much a PI buys or sells, they may trigger an NT trade if someone tries to sell/buy a lot of shares in one go and a smart PI often finds doing 4 x 50k trades bettr priced than 1 x 200k trade

its all down to the 'potential new deals' and AJE Phase 2 Development
has been for 2 years
The PetroNor purchase of Panoro and them coming Lead Operator does seem to be a positive, but the timescales are still very long and need Nigerian Government Consent, Finance Package, Field Development implemented before ADME will get anything from Phase 2 / 3
The hope for shareholders is the 'new deals OO is working on' provide some form of actual currency into the pot cause AJE Phase 1 that provides ADME revenue next year is just enough to pay wages / admin costs for the next two year (maybe a small cash positive position)
Shareholders are in the same position they were 10 months ago in reality, just a lot more shares, a new BOD (with some bad history) and minimal progress (just a lot of fanciful noise with a sheikh who has come on gone, new 'swiss bankers')

it really depends on the conduct and why they went down - always useful to read liquidators report - look at ENERGY EQUITY RESOURCES LIMITED who are linked to EER NORWAY that have a stake in AJE
they were liquidated by Unsecured Creditors - from the Liquidators Report
'I have received 17 unsecured creditor claims totaling £31,938,322.65'
when a company goes down owing £32m (albeith £30m from the parent) it still went down owing c£2m.
I assume your OK with people that screw HMRC / Landlords and other Creditors out of £2m

probably an increase tomorrow and monday going by trading today

JHOLDER
PEEL HOLDINGS will have likely increased yesterday and today
as the lead MM on BID and ASK, they will be in the middle for 90% of all transaction.
It is very likely that the last few days increased trading, they will be sat with a good percentage of shares for very little outlay

Stage 2 is ages away - it relies on new operators as per the RNS / Nigerian Government Consent - then a full finance package
Would like to see the figures for the Technical Work (CAPEX required / Funding Costs) - there has always been potential for phase 2 and 3 to look half decent - i have said this from day one that i'm more interested in these figures

i actually have no issues on him mentioning the Lifting has been completed
It was Due in October so like i said it had either been done or imminent
I also said it wont be RNS's - it never is as it forms part of the day to day trading of the company
The other very factual point is that ADME receive no cash from this uplift - it will go to fund the partnerships debt and like previous RNS's state - expect first cash in the business from AJE in uplift scheduled early 2020.
Anyone saying that they will have £2m cash in bank after uplift is seriously mistaken, likelihood is there is maybe four-five hundred thousand in the bank with another 560k to come if the conditional placing is finalised

If i was representing MM's - i assume that would mean i work for PeelHunt (as they are primarily the lead MM on Bid / Ask) - as Peel Hunt are a big shareholder and to some (a real positive) - surely my intentions would be to get the price higher so Peel can offload more quicker at a higher price - so that comment makes no sense at all

No, because the c£10m value is contingent on full development of phase 2, while yesterday’s announcement brings it one more step closer, it also outline timescales to get the basic agreements with Nigerian Government by December 2020 at latest but it shows how far away a development plan is, I’m sure this transaction which has taken months was done with a lot of data on OML113 before looking to enter an operational agreement, so there are positives in the long term, which is kind of what I have said that there is some long term potential, it’s how much, given we have an idea that long term potential is still small at £10m with so many hurdles and so much time required to get there, is it truly worth the punt, I await further investment RNS and the development plan, costs and funding in AJE phase 2