Member Info for DanBrown83

ADME should look at placing after news if time allows - but no one fully understands the timescales here
i think there is a possibility of ADME been taken out by Trafigura - just potential of $20m warrants makes me think that the only way this could possibly happen is with Trafigura coming the main shareholder - ADME taken over fully and becomes integrated in Tarafigura and OO gets a cushty job

I honestly don’t know
A successful investment backed by Trafigura would see a sharp rise just in an initial agreement
I also agree with Spikey that a placing will likely have to happen in next few months, I also think there will be a phase 2 of AJE update sometime over the summer, it’s low value now (even after yesterday’s rise) albeit I don’t know if more shares were sold or bought, seemed tight judging by trades, wonder if there will be a peel RNS tomorrow

to be fair - this is positive movement today
no one can really argue with that
a MOU isn't much legally but its progress and even Trafigura are tweeting it so it can't be shrugged off
and your possibly correct that they wouldn't get this from Trafigura if there wasn't an investment already discussed and in a progressed stage - you don't go to the bank for a mortgage if you haven't a property your interested in (Trafigura are essentially going to be ADME's bank)

like the way the link is the ADME RNS
nice of them to tweet about it but they could of done a little extra themselves

you would assume so with the numbers they are talking
$100m + $20m warrants - depending on how it works in the background
the warrants alone at this price would need the share cap increasing to c 560m

its really good to see the HH commit to a 12month period of not selling shares - after his ADME issues - this does put him in a better light

So had a bit of a think on RNS
TRAFIGURA PTE LTD are huge so plenty of money in background - obviously OO knows them from past else i doubt they would enter a MOU with ADME
It is just a MOU, its a very early legal indication they could support ADME in certain investment projects - with a lot of caveats.
I am trying to understand this line - Trafigura will be entitled to provide ADM with conditional pre-financing of up to US$100 million for the acquisition or development of Approved Projects.
Its the word 'entitled' its an unusual word to include - very open and non committal for a MOU,
Ultimately, ADME have to propose Investment Projects with the ultimate goal of borrowing funds from TRAFIGURA to invest in the projects, positive step forward for ADME on this front

To be fair, looks decent RNS, will look at in more detail when in office

8 posts on LSE
all in last 2 hours
member since 2013 - just been unbanned?
very rampy

As i said previously:
imho: its virtually become a gamble on Panoro / PetroNor deal been concluded and Phase 2 been implemented
i am more optimistic of something happening in Phase 2 this year than i was June 2019 before the deal was announced - PetroNor seem a lot more active and forward thinking than the existing operator (again we see from the last RNS they are struggling even more on phase 1 than was originally envisaged last year)

technically they are obliged to make a takeover offer
but as an MM i assume they will have to take the foot off the Bid/Ask at c29% to avoid this - its at this point things may happen as PEEL are controlling the price currently - when they come off BID/ASK the spread will likely dramatically increase

Wentworth your safer bet out of them two

No i'm not
but if you want my honest opinion - it could be a good gamble based on the increased prospects of phase 2 when the sale of the Panoro stake concludes - i stated this at the time the proposed sale that with the current operators it never looked like Phase 2 would start but PetroNor seem a lot more pro-active

current production is worth zero now
superdielectrics is i suppose on balance sheet at c£1m but i value it at zero as its still a long way off
Cash in Bank is £??? - possibly £500k
the value now in reality lies with positive news on Phase 2 Development - starting with the sale been signed off by Government officials - if this is good - easily could add £5m (say £6.5m MCAP all in (initially) - really held back due to ADME been a small shareholder

i tend to think that rounded buys and sells dont come from PI's
There has to be someone we are not privvy too buying on a small scale in the background as there have been a lot of little trades that should of pushed a proper Institutional investor over the limit - maybe Peel have some unconnected investor that are buying some shares or maybe PI's are buying in small amounts to reduce their average - i have no real idea

The thing with the news and drop today, it hasn't caused a huge drop (ok 20% at one point and still 10% drop) but the news today means that anything they have saved for investments is going to keep ADME going and that in reality to invest in a new project there is going to be a cash call
The Strategy update was poor - still no real progress in terms of the next investment - it has been 6months and there were irons in the fire that time
Too cheap to sell now but expect could be cheaper if placing is announced
nothing positive in near term except waiting for the Panoro sale of AJE and hopefully progress on Phase 2 - likely 6 months for any progress here

Don't worry about it - my original message on HH was that he doesn't add a ton of value just because he is a Royal
he was just a glorified shareholder - i was saying at 10p equivalent and it went to 48p (10x his purchase price)
i take no pleasure in seeing this happen - but people do need to be realistic and not blindly listen to hype on any share (especially posted by a random on a message board or twitter)

Wasn't really expecting this update - truly shocking - i was expecting Debt repaid and some funds to ADME (not a fortune)
AJE is really a writeoff (until / if) Phase 2 operations start development and there is a lot to do until this is started.
Strategy update was poor as well - recent placings likely covering expenses - especially as not enough cash coming in from AJE until at least next year and its difficult to see if current operations will cover ADME running expenses until wells deplete end of 2021 - the decline in flow rates is already hurting and soon they won't be worth the partnership running

Officially Q1
If it is on track, should be around now
Don’t know if they are on track and they may not even post it as an RNS
Nothing on partners websites yet

Peel back above 23%,

surprised this has retraced
with the extension - LEK are in the same position they were in back end of last year (slightly better) other than $600,000 probably lost in a scam (small change in reality)
Fire Sale of Assets is now in reality not going to happen so i would have expected to see maybe 4.5p to 5.5p again (in the near term)

The technology looks good - i'm no expert in this field like but it does sound exciting
ADME have a 0.4% Shareholding - so won't even be consulted on anything going on - i assume they get regular updates but other than that it will be a waiting game - i still think 0.4% shareholding is minute considering the price it paid for the shares - can't really value the concept at close to £250m imho

0.4% is pretty worthless unless the company is worth billions
£1bn MCAP only equates to £4m (ADME value)
The technology is really interesting as are there partners who they are working with but its still looks a long way off before they are even looking at commercialisation
its one of them where you put it in drawer and look at it in 5 years - its either bust or worth a fortune