Member Info for DanBrown83

if they do a placing for Admin Expenses in the next few months after the RNS 2 weeks ago i think the board are going to trash a lot of confidence in investors
the rise has been because of 3 things - 1. No imminent placing / 2. Peel Hunt reduction overhang cleared / 3. New investors on new Stock Exchange
3 bits of positive news in 2 weeks
Accounts were expected to be poor from last year, but the mention of the need for additional funding for expenses is pretty poor and was unexpected - considering we have been led to believe they are reducing costs

2 weeks ago they didnt need any further dilution for expenses
£150k per month average admin expenses
have £200k in bank and £100k facility so does look like Spikey was right that they will need another placing on top of whats agreed
Other than that - the accounts were as expected - we knew a loss, we knew Turnover roughly would be lower due to a partial shut down, we know still not cash positive in AJE and that there is ADME's purchase and PetroNor's purchase into AJE going on in the backround to start phase 2 development
If these two conclued - Market Value based on c800bopd net production would be close to $10m realistically (taken into account that project debt will be needed and be repaid first so any revenue received like phase one would be towards the back end) so there is some potential high risk upside (especially since we don't know how many new shares will be needed to fund the purchase)

There will unlikely be a cash raise other than the £100,000 facility that’s available to them in the next few months, the Trafigura facility isn’t a true credit facility, the way the agreement is worded is that adme are going to source investments for Trafigura and retain a small percentage for finding and negotiating the investment, since this agreement it has been covid19 so zero deals have progressed, the trafigura investment is nothing like a bank giving the loan, ADME’s role is like a broker for oil deals

The AJE I would expect given the reduction in oil price and costs will pay off project debt closer to October, currently in the 2 active wells, there is another 18months of oil before they are dry, this leaves probably 15 months at 147bopd at c $12a barrel profit c$675k

Peel Hunt are a Market Maker
There job is to trade shares - not hold
It was always very likely they will look to sell shares in large chunks if they had the chance - the probability is they actually have zero cash invested here and are now on a free ride
As a Market Maker - they can to a degree set the price to suit - this can lead to the price going up quickly as it benefits them
Still a lot of rounded sells and still want to see who took on all them shares a few days ago
Back to where is said was a realistic price (i said it Pre Covid / i said it during Covid and i will say it again (4p-5p) is realistic given the delays in AJE Partnership generating nett revenues to ADME / the potential upside if the PetroNor deal can conclude this year enabling realistic phase 2 development)
The 3 new deals / Trafigura i still think will be next year at best now due to COVID19 - things have changed a lot since the MOU was signed

very interesting development

No Cants then,
i think this is becoming more of a liquid share instead of Peel controlling the book at both ends

Peel have offloaded a lot recently at under 3p
who are the other 2, i assume Cantz is one of them

lots of round buys again - keep seeing this pattern week after week - i have a feeling we might see this next few weeks as they try and manipulate up to the 7p they wanted in the AlignResearch Report
brakes off from the 2 huge sells yesterday - see who they were when we get TR1's
then just have to wait for next update

Next few TR1's will be interesting with them two large sells (Who Sold / Who picked them up)
Still a lot of other decent sized trades happening (again mostly rounded numbers which stinks of Institutional Investors) rather than PI's

Very likely , probably be lower salary plus performance bonuses etc
Stefan was very much in the inner circle of the old BOD
OO has come from been technically unemployed as EER are in liquidation

This was a positive update
BOD Remuneration is usually in the Administrative Costs - so £300k is enough for the year (£50k burn a month) which is probably a huge reduction in internal operations and salaries - the last set of accounts were a different BOD

The AJE partnership seems to have done decent in the pandemic - reduced costs and got the storage to wait until oil prices potentially rise further, at $28 cost, anything above $50 Brent Price will put it on a similar footing - therefore there is the potential when they do sell the oil in the next 6 months project debt will finally be repaid - this will leave about 1 years worth of actual oil revenue left in the two existing wells (without taking into account any increased stake - 150 barrels a day x 365 days x say $25 profit will make phase 1 profit under $1.4m (c£1.1m)
This will likely cover the £600k administrative costs if they can operate at £50k per month continually

Spikey is right, the cash position does not help with next stage of AJE Development or the purchase of additional stake from EER administrators - so it is very likely there is still some hefty dilution to occur in the next 12 months

My first thought was Cantor Fitzgerald
They were on the book after last equity placing
Some of the reduction has come from the placing naturally reducing their percentage (rather than them selling)
I really think there should be a Holdings RNS from someone else - too many shares have gone and can't be all too small PI's - and the trades are all quite large many 100,000 + purchases etc

its been a pattern
Lots of rounded Buys followed by Lots of rounded Sells - this has been repeated a few times in last couple of weeks
looks like the round sells have stopped and round buys are happening today
if pattern follows they will be rounded sells early to mid next week
It does make me feel its a bit of manipulation of the SP

The price rose on a lot of rounded 100k share purchase - always a nice round number and quite a lot of them
The price is falling on a lot of rounded large share sells - 500k, 300k 100k etc
This smells of price manipulation - the thing is - who ever is doing it is likely not crossing the threshold and is reselling a couple of days later - artificially raising the price for a small time
I wonder if they end up in Cantor Fitz pot of shares instead of Peel?? - a holdings RNS early next week with these sells will likely clear the position a bit more

Fair Do's Early Bird
There are a lot of Negatives and some positives
It only takes one positive to come to fruition and you could make a decent profit

No its not
She has no personal relationship to the CEO (OO) at all - get your facts right please

i think under COVID19 you have to give them a bit more of a chance
In reality, no one expects to see acquisitions in a world that has seen world wide turmoil, crash in oil, virtually the whole planet on some form of lockdown

Since when were they married????
They are totally unrelated!!!

wonder if this will get to the pre oil / covid price in the next week or two
Oil has made a recovery and if the partnership held the oil in Front Puffin they maybe able to make a good dent in the project debt with the next uplift

i should of stuck with my gut and kept oil but it was too volatile
i made some good money but could of been a lot more