Member Info for danawinner

Not sure that AA will want to spend on new licences unless it is to tie in with existing holdings and to increase adjacent acreage.
I suspect that the team will have their hands full with any proposed acquisition of existing assets that are available at bargain basement prices.
Exxon up for grabs as we all know, and we await an RNS with abated breath!
Is this the week?!
I for one, certainly hope so.
GLA

With the amount of cash that we have in the bank, which continues to rise, I cannot see AA arranging a placing.

To be attractive to AA, It would have to be at a substantial premium to our current SP, and Institutional interest in oilies is negative at the moment.
I can see that arranging some bonds/ convertible bonds in the 5 to 7% range is possible, and a good appetite for them.
Our current position of big cash and no borrowings is a very hard position to walk away from, and if a deal compromises this without massive upside, I believe that AA would rather walk away from the deal.
We will soon see, but the crisis hasn't destroyed companies like it was anticipated, so perhaps the status quo is our best option. There is no point in doing deals for the sake of it, and if we stay as we are, perhaps the best way to grow the share price may be to increase the dividend and keep the cash pile growing at the same time.
I appreciate that our profits this year may be half of last year's, but an increase of 50% on the dividend would still be very well covered, and surely be reflected in the share price.
Whatever happens, the board could not be better aligned with the shareholders, and so far they have made some excellent decisions, long may it continue.
Have a great weekend, let's hope that next week is more interesting.

in the interim between news events.
I think that TXP is currently one of the best medium term buying opportunities on the market.
AIM stocks tend to attract the short term players, so we need to somehow get the message out to the loner term investors.
I wonder if Paul is planning an investor roadshow? It might be a good way for North to exit and get the SP moving?

JTD I think that confirmation of the NGC deal will do a lot for us.
It will secure our long-term income stream for years.
The spud is another step on the way, and hope that we will see steady progression until the drill results.
Not sure that we will see much happening until the official reserves and NGC deal are announced, which may be in short succession. I hope.
GLA

Bandit1 it looks like the inverse correlation between SP and Brent price may have been broken, although probably temporarily!
Perhaps we are seeing the start of the pre-announcement rise that we have seen in the past?
I certainly hope so, but the Algobots don't seem to have kicked in yet.
Patience needed, as always.

The RRE share price movements in relation to oil prices are absurd.
Maybe if the oil price doubles to $80 our share price will halve?
It is unfathomable to me.
My only interpretation is that someone is working really hard to suppress the share price.
Let's hope that the reason for this becomes clear in the near future.
Cash is King, after all.

Dave is bored.
Dave already posts on here under another name.
Dave is having fun.
Be like Dave. Wait until the SP drops to £5.00 just to be on the safe side.
https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/keep-calm-and-be-like-dave.png

Davetipton. What an excellent first post.
If £20 per share in unrestricted cash in the bank for each share is not enough, perhaps you should rethink what 20,000 boepd is worth?

I think that it is worth a look at the SP behaviour before our last suspension in order to decide whether there is any imminent news.
Whilst history may not repeat itself, last time there some very large volumes before the Marathon news dropped.
We are not seeing this at the moment, and whilst I am heavily invested here, I don't think that we are on the cusp of anything at the moment.
I dearly hope that AA will prove me wrong, and announce a deal in the next half hour, but wishful thinking isn't likely to achieve anything.
Patience is required here, AA has kept his powder dry for a year or so, and nobody on the planet is more highly motivated than he is to get the next deal right.
I anticipate that a deal could be negotiated within the next fortnight, but let's not forget that it will be a multi-party bidding process for the Exxon assets, and they are unlikely to be in any particular rush.
The good thing however is that there are relatively few potential bidders, Bank funding is almost non-existent and the likes of Macquarie seem to be moving away from oil and gas. There may be a few few Venture Capitalists that fancy a go, but time will tell.
I think that AA is probably picking the cherries that he fancies, and once his punnet is full, he will make sure that his wallet is full before he heads for the till.
In a year's time I expect that we will be producing 50,000 boepd and the oil price will be $50 or more.
On that basis we should be £40 to £50 per share, but I think that a share split of 10 for 1 would make that sort of quantum leap much easier, if only for psychological reasons.

This is one
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Trinidad+and+Tobago/@10.2770597,-61.2387222,714m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x8c3607976350b6c5:0xff082855c639f127!8m2!3d10.691803!4d-61.222503

The quoted bid/offer spread is 1.6% whereas the true spread is currently around 0.6%.
Always a good sign in my book.
The algobots don't seem to have started work yet this norning.
I am anticipating a much busier market in the next week, as Brent continues its gains and a potential deal on purchase of assets progresses.
Pure speculation on my part, but I think that the timing of a deal with a willing buyer and a willing seller is getting closer.
I think that we could be suspended soon, probably for 3 to 5 months, so assume that your funds in here will be locked away, but when we re-emerge the Brent price could easily be in the $45 to $50 range.
I can't see that it could be as good as the Marathon deal, but even if we pop out at double, I could cope quite easily.

JTD I think that this is probably the Board's top priority at the moment, as it is fundamental to getting the gas onstream and the 'wall of cash' coming our way.
From the shareholders' perspective, it is key to our future cashflow and will confirm our future income stream, possibly for decades.
The T&T Government will be pushing to conclude the deal, as they get the royalties, their 20% and energy security, so everyone is keen to make this happen.
I can see this happening in the next week or so, but like you, it may be wishful thinking.

I wasn't expecting an RNS today, but $15m of new $20 m loan used to repay old loan.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TXP/closing-of-trinidad-based-us-20-million-term-loan/14578600

15 to 20% duh.

Canada is pretty busy today, it tends to be 20 to 20% of UK volume, which is why TXP went for a dual listing here.
I think that our artificial ceiling is dictated by North selling into any price over 50 pence.
I think that with today's volume we can anticipate another TR1 from them by the end of the week stating that they have dropped below the 6% threshold.
With luck they may drop below the 5% threshold as well.
Once they are out I can see that the SP will begin to perform far more in line with what one might expect from the excellent news that we are getting.

The two crucial bits of information that should drop in the next month are;
The confirmed 3rd party reserves figure, which is likely to be in excess of 500 billion cubic feet, keeping in mind that our flow rates are double or even treble those at Carapal Ridge.
The deal with NGC on the infrastructure and pricing. I cannot see this being less than $3.30 per thousand cubic feet.
See prices on this chart, scroll down.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3035us3m.htm
This gives us a figure of $1.65 Billion, although we 'only' have 80% of this, we give 20% away to Heritage Oil.
Truly staggering.
The value of the gas alone from Cascadura is more than 10 times our market cap.

Shakey, T&T gas prices are far higher. Paul said in a recent interview that the T&T range is $2.80 to $3.40, which gives me grounds for optimism!

As most of us know, the Cascadura drill didn't get down to the original oil target because the gas pressures exceeded limits for the rig setup.
I'm going to stick my neck out here, it appears that the team has an incredible ability to analyse the data.
Once we get down to the oil, if the oil structure replicates the gas one, we can anticipate an additional 5,000 barrels per day of high quality crude.
That drill is programmed for after we hit another massive find at Chinook.
TXP is indeed going to be my next Dana.
Very happy today. Computer decided to update itself this morning when all the fun was happening. Grrr.

Tiburn they have already identified more than ten prospects on our existing block. I think that the board will stick to what we have, there is a ten year programme already here.

The quality of the oil is 55 degrees API which is somewhere between Jet fuel and Petrol/gasoline.
The separator used in the tests, judging by the pictures would have been maxed out, imho.
The value of the condensates of this quality is circa 15-20% higher than Brent and could power gas turbine generators with little treatment.