RE: RNS2 Jun 2020 08:25
I'm looking forward to finding out how far off my figures are from the experts.
I think I have been conservative. If my 5 x multiplier is too low, then we are on a roll.....
From last week.
Stage two flow testing supports an initial production range between 7,750 and 9,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boe/d"), including an estimated 40 to 50 million cubic feet per day ("MMcf/d") of natural gas and an estimated 1,100 to 1,400 barrels per day ("bbls/d") of natural gas liquids, significantly exceeding pre-drill expectations.
The second stage of production testing commenced on March 8, 2020 and achieved a peak flowback rate of 5,760 boe/d, including 29.4 MMcf/d of natural gas and 865 bbls/d of natural gas liquids.
We are going to have two producing wells here, with potential for a deeper find of more oil beneath the existing discovery.
Rather than just doubling the figures, I am going for 150% of one well to err on the safe side, even though max drawdown had negligible pressure drop.
Gas at say 45 Mmcf/day x 1.5 = 67.5 Mmcf/d at say $3,000 per Mm = $202,500 per day no SPT (I understand that $3,000 is the current price in T&T).
Oil condensates 1,250 bpd x 1.5 = 1,875 bopd at say $35 (we may get a premium) = $65,625 per day
Total = $268,125 per day with low prices. We get 80% = $214,500 per day, in a low price environment.
Let's knock off $14,500 per day production costs so $200,000 per day x 365 = $73,000,000 per annum.
No, let's be really conservative and call it $65 million per annum from Cascadura.
This has to be worth a minimum of 5 x which equals $325 million, and if we hit a bigger one with Chinook then 3 x that again.
That is what is known as a 'Wall of cash'. $325,000,000 divided by 183 million shares = $1.8 usd per share = £1.50 per share.
Please feel free to refute my numbers, these are for discussion purposes, and only for Cascadura.
Add on value of existing wells plus Coho say 30 pence per share.
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