Member Info for Daisan

I think that is called human nature.

Well, it caused a rise in price around that time but what happened at the close to cause a penny drop?

Youngsters with acne? Who would have thought it?

I would add that I agree that timing is difficult for any AIM explorer - they are all gambles to a greater or lesser extent and 90% of them produce nothing and dilute their holders to death. But it would be nice to see something happen in CGNR. Anything at all would be good.

robemy,

The timing has been right every day for the last 10 years. Currently there is nothing to suggest that it won't be right every day for the next 10 years.

Well, I would prefer panic as it is one of the signs I look for in terms of a trend change.

Of £125k. As far as I can tell this was at a full penny discount to other sells around it which suggests a certain amount of panic.

Dav3J,

You can discuss anything you want. Of course some people will object but if you have conviction you will just stick to your view.

Interesting but I disagree on points. For a start, the reason why I think that a dividend policy would have an impact is because there are precedents on the market where it has (e.g. AAZ which rose 75% on the back of it). In addition, there are a number of price drivers other than the Vanadium price that would positively impact the price - in my opinion a brownfield purchase would be foremost amongst those but production increases, Mokopane licence, etc. would all be possibles.

Nobbynewboy,

I think that it is incumbent on any investor to keep an eye on the wider market to understand the potential impact of new entrants. In this case they have the potential to impact but my initial feeling is that this will offset a strong rise in demand rather than disrupt the pricing to the extent suggested in the article. That said, in 10 years' time the Vanadium market is likely to be very different with much higher demand, more stable pricing and considerably bigger suppliers with primary producers taking a larger slice of the pie.

Pricing is a difficult one to assess. I had thought that the recent price rise was unlikely to last for the long term but would initially settle around $80/kg for FeV. Clearly it has overshot both up and down but the thing that concerns me is that it is unclear to me the specifics of the drivers for that. However, in the medium term I still think that there is room for a further price spike whilst in the very long term the price is likely to settle at a lower level with considerably increased demand offset by considerably increased supply. FAR has the potential to be one of the players (unlike Aura for a example) as, of course, does BMN and Largo.

I don't think that buying FAR is an option. Apart from the fact that the market capitalisation is too high for that (in my opinion it was considerably over priced on float), the two principles own too much of the company to allow a takeover.

Having looked at the company over the last few days, there is no doubt that they have the potential to impact the Vanadium market over the next few years. However, having the potential and actually achieving it are two very different things. Worth watching to see how they progress but currently they are just a small scale reprocessing company and their ability to disrupt is based on the undeveloped mine rather than the reprocessing aspect.

Do you mean after December 14th on the 1 year chart? If so, I suspect that it was due to Indonesian exports collapsing owing to the tsunami.

Lucan,

I wasn't saying that what you were indicating isn't possibly the case, just that it is based on things that are speculation rather than fact. Sources suggest there was a meeting and we know that the dividend announcement was not forthcoming. It is possible that the two are linked but we do not know this.

I would add that this is not atypical of the company - information is not always released in a timely fashion so it would not really be a surprise if this turned out to be the case.

LUCAN,

This is far from clear so I am not sure how you can state this with such certainty.

A fair point. I suppose my attitude to that date was influenced by more vague statements that were made about it whereas the Q1 2019 was very clear and repeated.

The first was a 'hope' but the second has been repeated on more than one occasion. But I think we need to be clear what is disappointing here. It is not the fact that there is no dividend policy. As has been stated, we haven't had one up to now and can certainly wait for one in the future. The issue with this is the fact that they have missed a deadline that was stated by them and was completely in their control. These things chip away at trust between company and shareholders. It is not irreparable but is disappointing.

Ophidian,

I would be more cautious with the 2019 guidance. I am expecting the transformation process to be carried out over the course of the year and would be happy with gradual process up to a 3400mtv run rate over the course of the year. Considering that Q4 was 657mtv, something like 700, 750, 800, 850 would be fine by me for the quarters so if I was the company I would be guiding lower than your range (say 2900-3100).

Fascinating stuff. This supports my view that there MUST have been stockpiles within the system, whether in the form of raw material or completed steel despite what the CEO of Largo may think. Otherwise these companies would be quite happily not meeting customer needs which I cannot for the life of me believe.

It may be that every word was an expletive, hence the reason that it cannot be published here.

A very good question. By the looks of it £1.5m has shifted to 'loans and other receivables' but I am damned if I can find an RNS related to a £1.5m loan between July and December 2018. I admit that I do not watch the company that often (one can only view car crashes so much before getting overload) so may have missed something.