Member Info for Daisan

I think that we can read too much into things posted on bulletin boards. I certainly do not deny 1onic at all and respect his technical contributions highly. I would not compare myself to Peter as I am sure 1onic would not compare himself to Jesus.

We came across each other on the M board but I stopped posting. I find his and ma5k's technical insights interesting and we have had some good discussions. Apart from that we don't know each other per se.

I am not sure whether that is a real or sarcastic post!

What cannot be disputed is that the rebar production in China is seasonal. However, looking at the history this does not have a direct correlation into Vanadium prices. This can be due to factors such as stockpiles and how deep the production cuts are vs supply (for example, in the winter 2016/17 there were bigger cuts in production than in 2015/16 but the Vanadium price held up much better in the later winter whilst prices slumped to their lowest in 2015, presumably as a result of stockpiling).

Once again the situation on a day to day, month to month basis is very difficult to completely understand as we do not have the full picture but the uptrend since the beginning of 2016 remains intact currently, albeit the line is being tested. Whilst I still believe that the bull argument remains in place, if the price continues downwards for the next few months I would have to admit that my understanding of the market is incomplete.

It has the potential to do that on the back of VRFB uptake but leasing or otherwise a soaring Vanadium price will certainly cause the market to pause. Another variable is the changing rebar standards in other parts of Asia, particularly India, as this will add enormously to demand. To be honest, I have no idea where the market is going and there are so many variables and the market is in transition.

Well, no. The global production could not be ramped up that quickly but I think it unlikely that demand will be that high is 5 years as the price dynamics would probably preclude it.

Pdub, Succinctly put and pretty much aligns with my view of the situation. Of course the price over the next few months will provide us with confirmation one way or the other.

1onic, I don't for a moment believe that any commodity can break the cycle but cycles can shift and spikes can become more extreme and elongated, plateaus can form at higher or lower levels, all depending on the conditions pertaining to the market at the time. I will reiterate my viewpoint that I believe this bull phase in Vanadium still has considerable legs in the short to medium term. Nothing lasts forever, of course, but I would suspect that BMN would do very well out of such a period of positive pricing.

An interesting argument 1onic. I would prefer to think that it is not as simple as a straight supply/demand imbalance as it involves human psychology. However, I would struggle to imagine where such an imbalance would not produce a resultant price rise, on the basis of which I would suggest that the imbalance is causative but perhaps not fully explanatory of a bubble.

Of course commodities return to a trend over time but there are frequent periods of over and under performance. During these periods is when the real money can be made or lost. The outperformance occurs when the supply/demand imbalance shifts towards demand for whatever reason. So I don't believe that anyone would really argue with this. The argument is whether we are in for a period of outperformance for Vanadium or whether that period is now past. Personally I am not yet ready to give up on the outperformance as there is evidence to suggest that the growth in demand over the next few years will exceed supply growth. Indeed, I suspect that this will be quite acute before sufficient new supply comes through. It is worth remembering that the perceived imbalance is due both from a reduction in supply and an increase in demand. Neither of these things is likely to change quickly. Indeed, on the demand side VRFBs give the potential for a considerable boost to demand. Of course, I could be wrong as could a lot of industry observers but the proof of the pudding is in the eating and the next few months will certainly be indicative of whether a supply deficit really does exist.

A very interesting chart. I think that I might plot this against Vanadium prices to see the correlation.

Given the price action so far, I suspect that there are some trades yet to be reported which will make the picture clearer.

This is a copy of nvhltd's post on ADVFN I believe.

Not doubting you at all knuttie. Apologies if my posts were construed as such.

Earthling, I have never said 'fill yer boots' in my life. I was quoting someone else as a cliche. The 50k 31.5p buy was claimed by knuttie. I would have assumed it was a sell as well but as it has been claimed....

I would point out that the rise in Vanadium prices being due to massive over production by Chinese steel manufacturers before the winter shutdown and the subsequent fall being due to the shutdown itself would mean that we are likely to see similar volatility this year.

And in English earthling (alien?)?

Knuttie, I would keep hold of your broker if you managed to buy at 31.5p. That is only 0.1p above the lowest trade of the day.

I think the post previously indicating that the Chinese steel manufacturers coming back online at the end of March is an interesting one and would certainly provide ample reason for the lack of demand. It is about the only thing I have heard that makes sense of the current market.

Interesting trade. 500k is not inconsiderable and comes at a key level.