Member Info for Daisan

That trade looks like somebody just giving up and accepting any price. You can't help but feel sympathetic towards them and indicates how hard this process can be.

Good to hear coffeecups. I would like to think at my age that I am not yet prone to following through either!

Today and plenty of large buys and sells. This is the sort of thing you tend to see at inflection points as the panickers panic and the opportunistic take advantage. Need to see some follow through buying here and for the selling to dry up to make further progress. It would be interesting to know who those responsible for the larger buys and sells are (is?) but I suspect that we will never know.

Well, if that is the case then that is a classic 'tree shake'.

I think that is what you call 'panic'! It looks like it is all coming to a crescendo now as the panic/capitulation hits full tilt.

Vametco resource statement. I have no idea why people are particularly concerned or excited about this. There is enough Vanadium already defined to last for decades.

Expert10201, It would hardly be a surprise if both companies were subjected to similar price pressures given that they are the two primary Vanadium companies listed on the markets at a time when Vanadium prices are under pressure. I have been watching the trading today and it is interesting. There are clearly a number of delayed trades to show up at certain key moments (I.e. where apparent buying pressures do not result in price rises) which will be revealed as the day progresses.

Not sure that I agree with some of the statements in this article. For a start, commodity cycles existed LONG before China were in any way a serious player in the markets so they have nothing to do with them per se. There also seems to be a bit of colouring in favour of new entrants (unsurprisingly, given his job). The price action in the last year makes it highly unlikely that new projects outside of China will get funding currently. I believe it will take af least a couple of years of stability to persuade financiers to back projects. Inside China, of course, is another matter and I can easily envisage projects getting the go ahead there.

There will, no doubt, be a plethora of delayed trades so we only have half the picture currently.

I agree that the volatility at some point will dissipate but at what level, who knows? I speculated some time ago that it would be in the $50-80/kg range and I am not sure that I would want to be any more precise and there is room for innovation that may shift this somewhat. However, until such a time that the supply and demand have increased substantially, with VRFBs sharing the demand with steel, it is likely to remain very volatile. Whilst only one viewpoint, Mastermines has suggested that VRFB development turned off in China when prices rose strongly and is switching back on now (at the same time as steel production) when prices have dropped. This certainly provides a floor to the pricing but creates the perfect environment for price rises and dips. It's going to be a heck of a ride over the next few years!

Pdub, That is the nature of a market without traded futures and dominated by a few traders - human nature kicks in and pushes it to the extremes of fear and greed. Sometimes you wish that there was a futures market. But only sometimes.

Vauch, That is possibly one of the most revolting analogies I have ever come across! I salute you!

I believe that most people who follow Vanadium closely will have a similar viewpoint. The next couple of months should show whether the hypothesis is true as we should see stabilising and then rising Vanadium pricing. If we don't then we have to assume that some source of material has been missed or the demand is not coming through. I confess that I am still betting on a rise even though the size of the drop has taken me by surprise (as, indeed, did the size of the rise).

:(

Indeed. It would take only one piece of significant news to shift sentiment substantially.

Pdub, I suggest that you read my posts again.

I think that he indicated he was going on holiday, did he not?

Endion, You mistake my post. I agree that there is evidence of what you post but that does not preclude long term holders selling as well. The most effective way to make money from a falling share price is to do it when the trend is down! Much easier for someone to push the price direction along in the manner that you suggest than to try and force it against the trend.

Endion, The behaviour you describe is certainly apparent. However, I would also say that I have seen plenty of times when large holders panic sell into drops forcing the price lower as a result. This may not be the most sensible way to behave but sometimes these situations just get to people and human beings are notorious for not behaving rationally.

Well, it wouldn't be surprising if one or more long term holders sell as they would be sitting on substantial profits. In these situations it does not necessarily take new news to turn the tide - sellers can become exhausted and buyers return which can shift things rapidly - but it wouldn't hurt! One thing that someone looking for a trend change would welcome is a sudden drop/sell off as this marks the point when bulls give up - capitulation - and can mark the bottom. I don't know if that is the case yet but the trading late in the day is certainly beginning to look like it. I confess that drop is further than I anticipated as I doubted whether it would drop meaningfully below the 200dma.