Member Info for Daisan

We always get speculation that news will arrive because FM is at a conference and will want something new to present. I have yet to see it happen so I wouldn't bet my house on it happening this time either. FM delivers news when he is good and ready to do so and I don't think that the conference calendar influences that in any way.

Anyone know if PJ is a direct holder in KAT?

That's the sort of RNS you hope never to see from a company in which you are invested. As Ophidian says, vertical integration is key. Perhaps this is an opportunity for a Vanadium focused company to buy a VRFB company or technology. Judging by the wording of the RNS the board are not entirely confident of reaching their minimum funding target.

I don't really understand what you are asking. The nature of the RNSs seem clear. If the question is what has stimulated the buying by the BoDs all of a sudden, it may be that they are taking advantage of managed sell. It may also be that the company is going to be in a closed period on and off for quite a while given the strategy so they have to move when they are able to.

Whatever way you look at it, having the CEO and CFO buy significant amounts is not a bad sign, particularly when the chairman and allies already own 40%+ of the company.

I agree re: AAZ. A decent company.

I still think that here the biggest factor is the location and this would re-rate significantly if the VAT was repaid or the path to repayment was transparent. We are, after all, talking about a virtually debt free company if the VAT was repaid.

Korg,

AAZ took me by surprise as well. I sold in the 20s when they suspended mining at their main pit and moved to a new pit that didn't even have a resource. It turned out brilliantly for them.

In terms of gold, my long term outlook is much higher values although there is a real chance of a strong pullback if it doesn't break above $1400. SHG will obviously do extremely well if gold prices go much higher.

Lurker5,

Agreed. I would say, however, that this provides a great opportunity once the 'stale bulls' have sold up. A lot of the upside (but not all) at AAU probably depends on how good Salinbas turns out to be.

NoelShempsky,

I suspect that we have a fair amount of commonality. I have just become rather jaundiced about a lot of the views expressed in certain sites after seeing many of the more sensationalist articles proving to be very wide of the mark. I got caught out the first time around and would rather not be caught out again.

NoelShempsky,

Of course I look at zerohedge and have done so for years (anyone who is a fan of gold will inevitably be drawn there). I said be cautious of zerohedge, not ignore it completely. Even Fox News occasionally states the truth! There is some decent stuff on zerohedge but also some sensationalist nonsense. There is little doubt that Deutsche Bank are in a bit of doo doos however.

Let me get this right. You think that Jesus is responsible for this rise? Well, I suppose today is akin to Lazarus rising from the dead so why not?

Hi NoelShempsky,

A couple of points.

I would differentiate between the precious metals and the miners. I see no evidence of suppression amongst the miners but there is certainly some suggestion that attempts are made on the metals themselves. I say 'attempts' as I see these things as ultimately futile as we saw in 2011. If that was price suppression then I would like to know what assistance looks like. Price suppression has been suggested since way before 2011 and the guys you mention have been perennial bulls - Sinclair has predicted 10 or the last 2 gold bull markets.

Gold is a very TA driven market because it is a reasonable market size and is not a material that is consumed, so a lot of people use various techniques to trade it. Depending on your viewpoint, this can be a self-fulfilling prophecy and there is no doubt that there are entities that utilise support and resistance points to shift the market by utilising futures.

I would be extremely cautious of zerohedge. Some of it is very useful and informative whilst a great deal of it is populated by complete nutters.

zeusfurla,

Such a policy could be based on free cash flow which would take account of all capital required to meet obligations and maximise the assets. A dividend is a good discipline to ensure that capital is employed efficiently and should be considered alongside and sympathetic with growth plans.

We will have to disagree I am afraid NoelShempsky. AAU had reasons why it failed to rise, most predominantly that the management team came out with a placing soon after saying that they wouldn't need one which is the kiss of death on AIM. My point was that it was difficult to say that things were being artificially suppressed when there were significant examples of where that just wasn't the case and I stick by the recent example of AAU as one of those.

I do not believe in the suppression of junior gold miner's share prices. I think that they have fully managed to scupper their own share prices over the last few years at a point in time when capital was limited. More recently they have got their acts together and some are seeing the rewards. More will follow and then the whole sector will rise strongly should gold prices rise.

I confess that I don't understand the 'junior gold miners do not go up' principle. You only have to look at AAZ as an example to see that this is not the case - it rose from 6p to 95p in a matter of a couple of years or so. CGH went from 6p to 30p in a similar time frame. AAU has risen 50% in the last four months.

Now, I agree that SHG has not risen despite the good news but this is mainly because the bad news (i.e. the actions of the Tanzanian Government over the last couple of years) has scared investors off. There have been other junior gold miners/explorers that have performed equally poorly for various other reasons but, on the whole, there is some easily identifiable reason rather than manipulation.

Well, to be fair he said "...heading back towards 50p" rather than "50p" which implies up to 40% (or a bit less).

There is some evidence to support a decent rise on the back of dividend policy announcement. AAZ announced a capital reduction/maiden dividend when it was c. 40p and it rose to 95p within 2-3 months. BMN has a larger market capitalisation so the impact may well be less significant but there is little doubt that paying a dividend opens it up to wider investment.

As you state, we are expecting a dividend POLICY by the end of Q1 NOT a dividend. I see no reason why strikes etc. should affect the production of a policy.

Well, the market seems to be willing to supply him with the shares he is looking for but at least this is moving a fair number into more long term hands.

You have to differentiate between 'whole rock' grades and 'in magnetite' grades. Vanadium is a slightly different beast to something like gold for example where the pertinent grade is the 'whole rock' i.e. how prevalent is the gold compared to the entire tonnage. As magnetite is relatively easily separated from the surrounding rock the relevant figure is what percentage of the magnetite is Vanadium rather than what percentage of all of the rock.

For BMN's deposits the 'in magnetite' grades tend to be good to world class.

If gold does what I expect it to do over the next 3-5 years then I believe that the share price will be very much higher than current levels.

I don't see a problem with being deadline driven. As long as you meet them. The principal deadline currently is for the dividend policy and I see no reason why that deadline should not be met as they have control of every aspect of this (as opposed to Mokopane, for example, which is reliant upon the government providing a licence).