Member Info for Daisan

Hi pablo2,

I confess that I have been following ADVFN a bit more for CGH owing to casual47's input. I contribute as JC2706 over there and tend to post a bit more now on there than here.

There is no requirement to list on the JSE to support an employee share ownership scheme. Such schemes are usually accompanied with facilities to transact in those shares. I have in the past benefited from such schemes, none of which were UK traded, and I sold through the company scheme.

The sharp drop this morning wasn't just a MM flush out in my opinion so I certainly expect there to be some significant delayed trades to be published.

I think that the fact we were informed at all is a huge step forward for corporate communication. The lack of such a statement before the last update was a blot on the company's record and it is good to see that they have learned from this. The share price reaction since has been fascinating.

There are many ways to value companies but considering it is years away from production I suspect that serious institutions will be using a DCF model. Given the stated DCF/NPVs it is not hard to generate a decent base line valuation. At that point the jurisdiction will be added. The UK is considered a more desirable development location than South Africa so BMN will be discounted much more greatly on that basis.

I don't think any of us have envisaged $1bn EBITDA figures at this stage. But if BMN start producing 10000mtv with a margin of $100k/tonne (which record high Vanadium prices would produce), guess what?

Sirius is projected to produce an annual EBITDA of at least $1bn and the NPV is very high so, despite the capital requirement, there is reason for optimism for current shareholders (I am not one). Of course, a lot could go wrong between now and then and the 'ITDA' part of the net earnings equation is likely to be very large indeed.

It will be interesting to see how SOLG plays out over the next couple of years. The most likely result is a takeover but at what level? Whilst they obviously have a world class deposit it is going to be extremely difficult to develop. infrastructure costs are going to be eye watering. This is why growing Beutong is significant. Whilst I don't think that it will be anywhere near as big as SOLG's deposit, it is very much easier to develop. Double to size and it will certainly be attractive to a major.

Personally I just think that this is one of those situations that you just have to ride out. I don't particularly like shorting, T20s, warrants (actually, I used to buy and sell them happily but they don't seem to be traded on the market any more), etc. but they are a fact of life and I suspect are never going to disappear. Shorting is a classic example - the most recent research I believe suggested that they improved the market. If (legitimate) research suggests that then it will never change in the world's most developed markets (i.e. London and New York).

If you believe that the long term fundamentals ultimately win through (I do) then this volatility should be considered at worst a short term irritation and at best a buying opportunity.

I am sure that many people have seen share prices that do not seem to reflect the fundamentals. It often takes months or years for this to correct itself with shareholders taking profits on every rise. Most private investors seem driven to protect their gains when they arise rather than to coldly assess whether the company is under or overvalued. As such, if the share price doubles there will be many willing sellers even if a more market representative price is ten times higher again. The wall is gradually climbed rather than jumped.

The FCA are in a difficult position and I think that it is unfair to label them as a 'bunch of crooks'. Unfortunately they are understaffed, under skilled and under resourced. Combine this with an administration's natural proclivity towards bureaucracy and you have a recipe for an organisation that can only attempt to address the most serious market misdemeanours, hence the apparent lack of empathy towards smaller investors.

Well, the share price will always be reflective of supply and demand rather than what any of us views as the 'true value'. But the company could certainly assist in the process with improved communications. The lack of a company announcement around the grant was poor judgement. It is not the amount that is significant but rather the issuer.

Of course, the real significance of a stagnant share price is when funds need to be raised. For Vametco current operations and even expansion to 5000mtv, it is unlikely that more funds are required. However, if they go for 10000mtv and fund some of this through equity then raising at 40p would be preferable to raising at 20p.

In the longer term it is difficult to argue about the returns here. Anyone who invested 2+ years ago is sitting on substantial profits. Even on a 1 year time frame the returns are eye catching. However, nobody is really that interested in historical performance but rather they are looking forward to tomorrow's.

So I presume 118 was 'phone directory enquiries'?

A Vanadium proponent may take issue with the chart being on a logarithmic scale.

Shakhtar, CGH dances to its own beat at the moment. Whilst I expect that the share price would have fallen if this was not suspended owing to the lack of progress on Kumtor I think that today's RNS shows that the BoDs have connections that enable them to pull off deals. CGH is now an entity where you buy into the BoDs and their vision or you walk away. Of course, currently this is impossible!

A classic PJ style placing. It is difficult to see, based on experience over any time frame, that CGNR would warrant a premium placing, particularly at a point in time when the gold price has experienced weakness. However, by introducing a premium they present the image of demand to stimulate interest in the secondary market. AIM being AIM it is likely that this will be associated with a tick up supported by certain Twitter supporters who are unhappy that their holdings are performing poorly.

Bigbitenow has posted once since 6th August. Given the time of year, I suspect that means he has been on holiday.

Well, not quite the update that we were expecting.

From a positive perspective:

- This is proof that the profitability is increasing markedly along with the Vanadium price. Revenue and EBITDA increases are very impressive
- Q3's profitability is likely to be higher again based on the current Vanadium price despite a four day interruption
- Future production is targeted to be higher
- Work has commenced (if only related to environmental permits) to improve production 'during' 2019
- Brits drilling has indicated continuity of Vametco ore body with similar grades

On the negative side:

- Production is lower than Q1 and much lower than most on this board were anticipating
- As late as 28th June it was suggested that production was on target for the year. It is difficult to see that this could be the case as the quarter was largely complete and much of this production shortfall, in particular the reasons, were known
- Grade came in lower than expected. This does happen but it suggests that grade control was not adequate. The drilling campaign at Vametco looks specifically targeted at this
- Industrial action hit production for 2.5 days in June. This happens, it was related to the previous regime and it was resolved to everyone's satisfaction. The more concerning fact is that we were not told. This is a material action and the market should be informed immediately
- Local action hit production for 4 days in July. This is more concerning as it is, to some extent, outside of Bushveld's control. I hope that FM is paying particular attention to doing everything within his power to address what he can as this sort of action can be highly destructive. As in the previous item, this should have been informed to the market at the time
- The ramp up to the expected production levels as a result of the enhancements has been slower than expected. A difficult one to assess this as we don't know the details.

The grade and the slow ramp up are likely to have the greatest impact on production going forwards if the industrial/social action is not repeated. All of these areas are addressable but the social unrest will require finesse. I suspect that FM is more than capable of handling this provided he does so himself.

An outsider looking in on this as a one off will be amazed at the rise in profitability but concerned at the issues hit. Grade control and production glitches are par for the course for a miner and can be addressed with appropriate actions (which appear to be in place) so any serious mining investor will consider the likely impact against the potential provided by the global demand for Vanadium. The unrest, on the other hand, will make them pause for thought as will the fact that this was not communicated to the market immediately.

Not unexpected but I suspect the period September - November will see increasing activity, and prices, in the run up to the revised rebar regulations in China. Add that to the environmental shutdowns and things are likely to get very spicy indeed.

Nick,

I agree that it is looking increasingly likely that the Q2 report will be subsumed within the interims. I have no problem with this but clear communication would dictate that the market is informed that this is going to be the case. There is little doubt that the BoDs here are excellent professionals and have executed on their strategy brilliantly. However, everyone must surely agree that the communication levels leave somewhat to be desired.

The second half of this year was always going to be considerably better than the first with production being higher and Vanadium prices reacting to the impending implementation of revised Chinese rebar standards. It would be nice to get Q2 figures before Q3 has finished though.