Member Info for Daisan

According to what I can see, the algarve is in the late 20s/early 30s currently and for the foreseeable.

As pointed out on ADVFN, this is breaking out of a cup and handle formation. Based on the formation the target price of a breakout should be around 34p or so. Sounds familiar!

http://www.asianmetal.com/VanadiumPrice/Vanadium.html

It was clear that the price rises needed a rest and Chinese prices were suggestive of it coming sooner rather than later. Well, we have a pause based on these numbers, although getting to the real picture on a day to day basis is difficult to achieve accurately and there are suggestions that the market is pretty static with little buying or selling.

A consolidation is very healthy for the market and will set up the next leg higher which I expect to occur in the run up to rebar regulations being implemented in China. The supply/demand imbalance will not disappear overnight.

Easier said than done. When is the top of the resource cycle exactly? I have seen reports suggesting that we are at the start of a 50 year commodities bull run (yes, that is an Elliott Wave one) another suggesting the long term picture for commodities is negative (Kondratiev waves believe it or not), although said 'long term' is not clarified as the suggestion is that commodity price growth will peak in 2035 (note that: price growth rather than price).

Seemingly in opposition to the negativity regarding commodity price predicted by Kondratiev, this chart is a good one but consider what the Y-Axis really means as the title of the piece has got it so completely wrong it is laughable:

https://www.businessinsider.com/commodity-kondratiev-cycles-2012-4?IR=T

Add to that the fact that Vanadium is a niche metal and doesn't seem to swim in the same direction as the rest of the commodities (the recent pull back in commodities has not affected Vanadium) and it doesn't seem like the top is that predictable.

In terms of future market capitalisation and assuming they deliver on all parts of the story, this could be valued in the $billions. If Vanadium prices remain strong/stronger over the next 2-3 years (I think there is every chance that FeV will top $100/kg this year on the way to a record high next year) then profitability of BMN's portion of Vametco alone should be worth over $1bn in market capitalisation. Triple the output (as has been suggested) from this, add in potential for Mokopane production and see what comes out of BE (at the very least it drives Vanadium demand) and you have your multi-billion valuation in the time frame suggested.

I should imagine that he will be heavily engaged in leasing by then.

Atlas, Yellow Dragon, Wogen, Uncle Tom Cobley and all!

Indeed it would as they would have gone through 7%. What a shock that they haven't notified the company yet. Not.

This is just the most bizarre story on AIM at the moment. It would not surprise me if there was a management buyout given the way that the share price has collapsed this year. Such opaque (in purpose if not in reporting) transactions in the company's shares by the Chairman hardly gives you a warm feeling.

A good call fatbanker. Their year end is 30th September.

I agree daitom. The share price performance today is similar to the last few so we have to expect another significant sell coming through.

Wogen do not care about the share price performance of BMN. The warrants were just a bonus and the price another happy bonus. Wogen are interested in their own business and see an opportunity to further enhance their cash position. The warrants have to be exercised and removed at some point so this was always going to hang over the share price.

The last update was on a Friday.

Not sure that the Q2 update is slightly later than expected. The Q1 update was released on 27th April so 27th July would be consistent with that. Last year the Q2 update was released on 9th August.

I see no reason why the warrant holders should be party to more information about future performance than we are. FM has gone out of his way to adopt an ethical stance and this would hardly fit with such a stance.

I had a think about this today. I can't recall seeing such an odd number being repeated in any company I have invested in. I believe that it is unlikely that these trades are from different sources and there is usually a logic associated with the number. On that basis I have looked around for a multiple amongst the large holders and outstanding warrants. This is, of course, an incomplete process as there are a number of significant holders below the 3% threshold. Of those I can see, the closest to an exact multiple is Atlas 2nd tranche of warrants which is very close to 9 times the figure. I have no idea whether this is the source or why you would break it down into 9 chunks. We will see today whether this continues.

Of course there is one other possibility. Someone is playing with my head! My natural paranoia suggests that this may be the truth of the situation.

If a falling share price is associated with the situation where it is easy to sell but impossible to buy, then this is a classic 'tree shake'. The rationale is that the market makers want shares so drop the share price in the hope of hitting trailing stop losses.

By 'manipulated' I presume you mean 'selling'. There have been no lack of large sells recently to put a cap on price rises and we are still seeing these. Some entity is clearly selling. I doubt whether they are doing it to stop a price rise. More likely it is because they prefer to have the cash.

Dav3J,

I am sure that such an update is imminent!

Faramog, For state run entities China very often loans money at what are usually very compelling terms. If you look at development around the new 'silk road', the only way some of these states can afford it is through Chinese loans. Of course, the money loaned comes with many conditions, primarily that the money is spent on Chinese companies. The upshot of this is that China gets the money back anyway but the result is a heavily indebted state/state body that is effectively controlled by China.

I don't tend to subscribe to theories of playing with the share price or mysterious entities keeping the price down. I tend to believe in buyers and sellers and each has their own reason for buying and selling. Consider that many traders don't know or care about the fundamentals of a company.

I am slightly perplexed as to who would break sales down into blocks of 546,250 though! One last night and another this morning. Very strange.