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As if I need reminding! What happened to DCP was so bizarre it would have been funny were the results not so catastrophic. It wasn't just flooding, they also had a fire and probably all of the other elemental forces aligned against them!

Most mineral explorers are similar - one project, strike gold and you are rich, strike out and you face lengthy periods of dilution. If you have multiple projects then the risk reduces but the dilution likely increases as you try to keep them all going (GGP anyone?).

Pharma is probably the worst of the lot as if it fails you are looking at years of wasted effort/time until the next drug. A real gambler's delight.

...... for AIM_Chaos. It's been a terrible week for N4P, one of his primary investments.

Well, the way Vanadium prices are going we will be pricing by the ounce or carat so the similarity may well increase.

I think that the only ways to reduce the current and future demand of Vanadium is to substitute Vanadium with Niobium in steel and for the uptake of VRFBs to fail. The substitution with Niobium just looks like jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

What impact would doubling the consumption of Niobium have on the price? Hint: it would be much worse than the carnage we are seeing in the Vanadium market.

What happens when the one mine that produces most of it has an issue (strike anyone)? Hint: are you sure you wanted that steel?

It is possible that VRFBs would not be taken up as a result of the Vanadium price and this would dampen future demand. However, what we are seeing currently is primarily due to the usage of Vanadium in steel so in the short term it would have little impact. But FM has pretty much gone on record as saying that they will make it work which means providing a mechanism for supplying Vanadium/electrolyte at a price that ensures success. He is certainly in a position to do this, presuming that BMN starts producing the stuff again of course.

The thing is, it is difficult currently to see what can be done to halt the rise, at least in the short to medium term. The cycle of commodity prices suggests that demand decreases and supply increases when prices rise and the opposite when prices fall. In this case, Vanadium supply has been reduced by Chinese legislation at the same time demand is legislated to increase (rebar) and a new application is adding to that demand (VRFB). Any additional supply from the rest of the world's production is either relatively minor in terms of the shortfall (Largo/Bushveld) or years away. Add in Bushveld's strike and the pressure on prices will continue.

How high can it go? I certainly see record highs - significantly higher. I would say that $150/kg is achievable but at the moment I am struggling to see what will stop it.

I agree entirely. The people who converse with the strikers in this way are treading on very shaky ground and probably undermining the process. I am not even sure what has gone through their heads to do so as it is so obviously the wrong thing to do.

The two sides would still appear to be some way apart judging by the latest Facebook post, although the indication is that this is cash related rather than shares. May not be indicative of everybody concerned but certainly suggests that there is still disagreement.

Beginning to move through yesterday's close. Interesting and despite the continued strike. This is clearly indicative of the impact that the Vanadium price surge is having. Solve the strike and I believe that the reaction to the Vanadium prices will be clearly supralinear.

I doubt it and why would you want it? The company is performing fantastically well and is now distributing the profits. At a time when the gold price is not massively strong I would add.

These things can take a while to pull together. The principle is relatively straightforward and easy to agree but to put it in place requires some time.

I have to confess that I have never heard of a strike based on a share ownership scheme.

Too fast.

Looks like 3 * 500k sells and one 600k buy.

I think that is what is known in psychology as deflection!

There will always be sellers at whatever price so I wouldn't pay too much attention to them. The last few days has seen the buyers outweigh the sellers but I would expect there to be days where the opposite is true irrespective of Vanadium price rises.

An interesting thought and may well be the case.

BigBiteNow,

I am sure you are right that the strike is not the cause of the rise (this has been discussed at length here). However, I expect that it is adding fuel to the fire and the rises now may well be greater than would otherwise be the case. I believe the impact may well be delayed in terms of impacting US prices but if the strike drags on I believe that we will inevitably start to see a US premium being enhanced as BMN is a significant contributor to supply there.

I meant that we WOULD hit $100/kg in the run up to the rebar standards change!

Doh!

Interesting. I had though that we would not $100/kg in the run up to the rebar standards change in China but late October was my best guess so this is going far faster than anticipated for me. You have to wonder what effect the BMN strike is having here and whether resolution cools it off slightly (I doubt whether it would kill it given the momentum and the fact that the deficit appears greater than BMN's market share). I also wonder whether there is any stockpiling going on within end use companies in anticipation of the standards change. If not, then the reality of the change is going to provide renewed impetus to the price as increased demand kicks in.

I have a slight issue with the Nitrovan premium - we don't see it reflected in the results. I believe it was BBN who stated that not only did we not see a Nitrovan premium but that the price achieved seemed best approximated by the European Vanadium price. As such, if we are going to approximate the projected revenues then this price would seem like the most appropriate one to use.