Member Info for Daisan

Seems to be a Chrome thing as the link works on IE. I probably have some security setting on!

I get a failure for that URL when I select it.

Please! Let's not go there.

The most positive thing about the results, however, is seeing the EBITDA figures translate into net profits and fcf. One of the biggest irritations is the announcement of great EBITDA figures only to see that these do not translate into bottom line figures. Now we have confirmation that there are no hidden 'extras' lurking in the operations so we can put much greater emphasis on those EBITDA figures we receive in the quarterlies.

There is always some selling pressure around results unless they produce something exceptionally good. These were absolutely predictable. Add in the hardest resistance to crack - round number resistance (30p). Add in the fact that this board has been targeting 30p for months! All of which means this is a natural pausing point.

I hope that we all understand what free cash flow is and that this is impacted by investment that has brought the potential production rate up to 3750 tonnes per annum and will bring it up to 5000 tonnes per annum. I would also hope that it is understood what will happen to fcf once the investment is reduced but, more significantly, when the impact of higher Vanadium prices that triple our profitability filter through to the bottom line.

Not sure what the issue is with the report. It has come in exactly as anticipated. Which, I confess, is always a relief!

I rarely pay that much attention to interims as they tend to say what you already know and deduce from the quarterlies. However a sometimes they can contradict and that is where the concern lies. No contradiction here.

The free cash flow is reduced because of the investment. It is what that investment is bringing about that is significant.

The market is forward looking. Bushveld has for the past couple of years been supposedly overvalued based on published metrics but this board has researched and identified what is going to happen and, hence, has been ahead of the game. It doesn't take too much forward looking to realise what is happening with the Vanadium price, however, and use this as a basis for earnings potential.

The interims were exactly as anticipated.

Atlas have no interest in the performance of BMN's shares.

I think irrespective of standard PE ratios on AIM 100 or otherwise, there is likely to be a SA discount which will inevitably result in a lower PE. There are ways in which this can be mitigated to some extent. The most obvious is the SA situation improving and the current process provides a glimmer of hope here, although this will be a long process. A dividend would also improve the situation (what you may think of dividends, the market loves them). Diversification out of SA would also improve it but I think that this is unlikely - the reason the assets have been purchased so cheaply is the location and I suspect that this will continue to be the targeted georgraphy.

I wouldn't obsess too much about PE ratios. With the Vanadium price behaving in the way that it currently is the increase in FCF/profitability will be huge enough to keep the share price ticking along nicely - surely sufficiently to conform to people's buying and selling habits.

Trade certainly feels different this morning. I don't get the impression of any large sells lurking first thing (at least not yet) as the ask appears to be moving freely. Time will tell whether the large background selling has stopped (temporarily or otherwise).

It's a shame that not many warrants are traded on the market (more are on the TSX I believe). I used to 'invest' in warrants in the early 90s. It's a bit of a rollercoaster but fun! Made a lot and then lost it all.

So. The last couple of sessions have seen 3% rises in various places but let's say 2.5%. If that continues, the price of FeV will be $200/kg in about 25 sessions, so end of October ish.

There will be more delayed trades. Very significant volume again today which is positive for the future direction. Current stock being sold is getting taken up very strongly in the market.

Tyfoon,

I can't see that. The 28.25p sells are delayed from earlier this morning.

It would be good to find out the identity of the seller(s). There seems to be too many for this to be Atlas warrants alone. YD would be the obvious candidate.

I confess that it is difficult to understand the price target upgrade. I could just about understand leaving it alone -something along the lines of 'our previous target assumed Sojitz buyout and our long term target price for Vanadium remains unchanged despite the recent price rise which we believe to be short lived'. I wouldn't agree with it but it would have a rational basis. However, raising it by 1p suggests a minor alteration. Logic suggests that this cannot be Sojitz as the terms of that deal would suggest a greater impact. Which would imply that they have shifted their Vanadium price assumption. Very slightly. This stance does have something of a Neroesque charm about it but it assumes an orderly market and seems to ignore the chaotic market dynamics currently being seen in the Vanadium space. As such, this doesn't make much sense either.

Perhaps they do feel that the Sojitz purchase has added 1p of value and everything else is unchanged.

Unfortunately Governments don't tend to be that joined up with their thinking.

Alfacomp,

I agree. This is a point I made over the weekend - I don't know where the price stops as price rises will not have the desired affect from a supply side. So it is the demand side that will have to take a hit. As you say, this may well be via a bidding war but I suspect that this is what we are seeing currently anyway. The power certainly lies with the producers first and the traders second which is resulting in end users paying over 2% a day extra according to Asian Metal. Some will not be able to source material and will halt production. But even that is unlikely to take demand out of the system as those companies are likely to just come back in at higher prices. VRFBs will definitely going to take a hit here, at least in the short term. There simply just isn't the material to support rapid growth of a new market.

As a point of consideration, if prices continue to rise at 2% a day then they will be double the price by mid-November.

I confess that I am completely in the dark as to what price Vanadium will be trading at in the medium term. In the long term I am pretty convinced that it will be lower than today and in the short term it is likely to go much higher. But how much higher is anyone's guess. As new supply is some way off, at what point does the price affect demand? I think that it will likely be at record highs this year now but how much higher? $150/kg? $200? $500?

One additional point here. The market doesn't tend to price things in in the blink of any eye. It takes time with many ups and downs, especially if the price driver shows a dramatic shift as it has with the Vametco purchase, the subsequent Vanadium price rise and the Sojitz purchase. Further dramatic news will cause step changes but until then it will be a fairly relentless process as the market adjusts to the current news framework.