Member Info for Daisan

The Asian Metal story I mentioned earlier ('close to record') is certainly suggestive that activity is getting close to $120/kg.

Well, at the end of the day it is all based on the business case. If the best option is brownfield then that will be the way forward. On the face of it that would be the least capitally intensive case. I have insufficient information to understand the opex. involved.

Looks like the ask price is rising as a result.

I'm not sure if I would read too much into the statement around the production levels. We just need to see what comes out of their review. If they were smart, the initial revision would have been conservative such that they would have been confident of hitting the upper range bar the strike. As a result of the strike, it may be that they need to review whether they will hit the range at all.

It is what it is at this stage and the strike is in the past. What is more important is giving clear indication that the grade issue has been resolved and that the plant will be operating at nameplate capacity for 2019. Giving guidance on 2019 of 3750+ tonnes mtv is far more important than shifting guidance for this year by 100 tonnes.

There is another option for Mokopane - full development of processing facilities on site. If I recall correctly, recent communications have suggested that this is the route that they wish to ultimately go down. However, it has also been suggested that ore could be shipped as an interim step. I am expecting a combination of these two.

Vanchem is an interesting one and I am not currently clear where this fits in given the above, although statements have been made that brownfield is still on the agenda and this is the obvious target. So we may well get to see a combination of all three playing out!

I agree and it has been said before - Lemur does not fit with the renewable energy message of the rest of the business. That said, it is a valuable entity in its own right so it would clearly not make sense to just drop it. I am hoping for an outright sale (for the right price of course) or, if not, then to spin it out like AfriTin once the studies are complete. At that point we could justifiably call BMN a focused, vertically integrated Vanadium company.

People just sell all the time regardless of the situation. I have seen people sell on news of a takeover offer well below the offer price. There are some investors who have fixed rules and they stick by them come hell or high water. Added to that, a lot of people would have had 30p as a target price for slicing. This would tend to happen anyway but given the focus of this board on that price, it is unsurprising in this case.

There is some selling going on, unsurprisingly given the rise. It doesn't matter for a lot of people that the long term fundamentals improve day by day with the Vanadium price. They just work on the basis of selling/'de-risking' on a rise. Also, round numbers and news always attract selling.

Quite incredible.

I notice on the Asian Metal website that they have the following headline:

Chinese Ferrovanadium prices close to record high.

Now, the record high, as we know, was achieved in 2005 and was over $120/kg. How close is 'close'?

Actually, I find the report quite interesting even if there is the odd error (such as Largo's percentage of global production where he uses the gross weight rather than contained Vanadium). The opaque comment is, I believe relating to production in China rather than exports from. His use of language is slightly ambiguous. I had not realised that Largo were likely to hit grade issues next year although I was aware of a high grade portion of their deposit. As he says, 2019 guidance will be interesting. He does go through a process of justifying a price drop even if I don't quite agree with it. Personally I think that there will be a significant drop but it will be from a higher level to a higher level and will take longer than anticipated. Thus, I think that Largo will have to work much harder to make progress but not as hard as he is suggesting.

Sanchez599,

I certainly don't believe it but that is what they are stating and the reason for the stated price target. I am struggling to make any sense of a model that reduces the average price of Vanadium for 2019 to $35/kg. Which makes me believe that there is no supporting evidence other than a belief that this is the likely long term average.

I do believe that the longer term price for Vanadium will be considerably lower than the current price as production eventually comes on stream, but not in 2019. I believe that we will see record highs in 2019 before the price begins to weaken and this is unlikely to be sustained until 2020/21 or even later.

Oh, I agree Endion - the combination of increased stake and Vanadium price should translate into price gains. However, until they raise their long term price their model is only ever going to produce limited price gains.

One other aspect that needs to be considered is that the EV of BMN falls as each day passes with a static share price. It is the EV that is more representative of value than mcap. Some credit needs to be associated with the accumulating cash.

He seems to have dropped the target price based on the figures released which suggests that either the profitability didn't agree with his model (I suspect that this is not the case) or the production hit from the strike has materially impacted the valuation in the short term (more likely). But it is the long term Vanadium price forecast that weighs most heavily and it is hard to see this outcome being achieved. Interestingly, they suggest that they have considered Roskill's price forecasts and this adds a couple of pence which suggests that Roskill too consider a significant drop very likely. Roskill are widely followed and respected so it is interesting to see their view on this as well.

Interestingly, they state that their forecast for 2018 is now $77.8 which is a lot higher than I have seen them forecast previously but presumably has less weight than the long term forecast. Until this long term forecast is raised it is difficult to see how SP Angel can increase their forecast without some other material change (such as production numbers).

Yes, and not an awful lot of other production coming on stream before then, although I am optimistic about BMN's ability to increase production! Vanadium prices are going to experience a lot more upward pressure for a while to come.

No problem. Always good to raise the expected EBITDA!

31.95p paid.

I just think that it is reference to the fact that the money has been made thanks to FM.

Not really as these specific calculations are for Vametco rather than BMN's proportion.

"Actual price achieved : $60,800 per mtv"

"There is $17,820 difference in price between Q1 and Q2, of which $14,000 was converted into EBITDA. That’s 78.7% conversion"

"the current H2 average of $81.70 delivers a further minimum $9,700 in EBITDA per mtv"

Not sure I am reading this correctly BBN but I would suggest that the difference between H1 and H2 pricing as it currently stands, with the stated 78.7% conversion, implies an additional $16,448 EBITDA per mtv.

I presume that we have reached 'capitulation point' for some investors here with the relentless drop. It's been an interesting ride. This was the share I decided to invest for some exposure to crypto, although I confess my initial reason was because I know someone with a connection to Airportr but decided that I could kill two birds with one stone! (You may have guessed from this that I am quite sceptical about cryptos in general).

Fortunately my average is 0.17p so I am not losing on this. Unfortunately I didn't sell when it got to 1.6p so from that perspective I have lost out on the gain.

I would say to those that are heavily under here that I would not give up hope completely. The sentiment in cryptos/blockchain is awful currently but I doubt that the end of the story is here. I think that we will see this revive significantly within the next few months and I suspect that 2019 will be as dramatic as 2018 has been.