Member Info for Daisan

Oh please.

I have no interest in their investment policy and don't see in what way that makes them any more reliable as an institutional investor. My view of an institution is that they should be supportive of the growth of a company not cut and run as soon as possible.

Agreed loudspeaker. When you bring institutions onboard you expect them to last a bit longer than 6 months. I think that it is pretty disgraceful to be honest and I trust that they will never be invited back to participate in any kind of fundraiser.

It is only prudent to believe that they will continue selling down their stake. Let's hope that we can get the volume up to clear them out as quickly as possible.

bassguy,

They can do pretty much whatever they want to do. And they do.

Indeed. This week has also been affected by the Chinese holiday and lack of Vanadium price reporting.

There are 2 100k delayed transactions and they both look like sells to me.

I confess in my youth I was as cynical as they came until I realised that it really does make you a miserable git! I would suggest that your attitude is healthy scepticism cindercone rather than cynicism.

You may expect it. I don't. I fully expect the price to be anything but dull over the next couple of years. Both up and, at some point, down.

Well, the key point is to not take advice from anyone on a BB. The BB is a useful source of information that should be confirmed before using as part of an investment decision. Nothing more, nothing less. Naivety and cynicism will both serve you poorly in making the best use of the resources available.

I suggested nothing of the sort. I merely suggested that a gradual decline was the least likely outcome.

I agree clarkgriswold. There have been people who have been clear that they have sold some on the way up. If you use T20s and close them you have bought and sold.

It is for nobody else to judge and is just a natural part of the market. Somebody will always be selling.

I don't recall seeing this posted before:

https://www.vanadiumprice.com/lme-week-2018-infographic-consumers-attempt-to-lock-in-2019-supplies-after-fev-soars-through-100-kg/

Several interesting points but it is the first time I have seen a breakdown of a price forecast for FeV. Strangely, the chart seems to suggest a forecast for the latest price action with the dotted line but the text suggests that this is already known (are they trying to look smart?).

I have to wonder why these forecasters always suggest stability and/or gentle decline after a sharp rise up. The volatility we are seeing currently suggests that this is the LEAST likely outcome. Still, their forecast suggests FeV at $100/kg for the whole of next year which is a start.

A resolve to not sell is pointless. There will always be sellers no matter what the fundamental outlook.

Interesting, thanks nick26. Unusual price action compared with what we have had recently. My assessment was clearly too lazy.

Gradual ask erosion suggests that there may well be a significant sell being worked, although volumes are pretty thin.

Of more interest is the world bank views on the South African economy, as published in the same report, with the following particularly relevant to BMN's costs:

"The combination of low growth caused by a lack of investment over many years and high inflation is likely to cause the Rand to slide further."

Implying that costs are likely to fall further and remain down unless wage growth starts to bite into these savings of course.

They are just suggesting that even record production from a major supplier of V2O5 is having no impact on the rise in the Vanadium price, suggesting that the deficit is much larger than can be covered by current production increases.

I believe that Vametco does have long term contracts in place but don't think that this is contradictory to achieving spot price. These contracts appear to be based on spot price minus a few percent. This 'few percent', as I understand, is traditionally 3-5% so adding 5% Nitrovan premium would explain how BMN achieve spot price (given the delay).

But we know from the figures that we are not far off achieving market spot prices.

6.93% in one day! If that was USD, copper, gold etc. it would be headline news