Member Info for Daisan

And other cliches.........

Incredible. And people still hitting the sell button.

Ha! I can see that all of the times that the executives at AAU have gone out of their way to stress that a placing is not on the cards has fallen on deaf ears. I suspect that any placing would be specifically targeted at Salinbas but my feeling is that there will be no placing unless gold falls catastrophically from here. That said, the likelihood of a dividend is remote as any cash generated should be targeted at exploring Salinbas.

AAZ is a solid company although I am not convinced about the location or the structure going forwards. That said, so far the location has proved benign and there is exploration potential.

HUM ultimately is a higher quality company than AAZ or SHG I believe but we need to see a few quarters production to convince the market. They have also deviated slightly lately which has been unwelcome.

SHG should repay their debt quite rapidly as capital costs reduce from moving underground but Tanzania is not suddenly going to become a desirable investment destination overnight.

The gold company I am most intrigued by is Altyn which can't seem to get its hands on sufficient capital to make the production step up that its deposit deserves. I don't think that there is much faith in the majority stakeholder.

You are right that there is a disconnect here (and with other Vanadium based companies) but there will eventually be a correlation loudspeaker. At some point the two will be forced into line. What that action is, I have no idea - it could be a brownfield acquisition, it could be dividends, it could be when we have £100m+ cash and Vanadium prices show no sign of dropping. But it will ultimately come.

Take your pick Endion. The statement was open ended although I suspect that some things are more likely than others.

Amazing strength.

I wonder how much weight should be given to the suggestion here of substitution by Ferroniobium. Given the alterations required, this would only be likely for a plant that can process both Vanadium and Niobium. Do such plants exist? Is this just bluff?

A significant interview. Apart from the fact that they both came across as very coherent, knowledgeable and confident, there was indeed some substance to what they said.

As has been pointed out by Sanchez599 and SickOfTheRatRace, perhaps the two most significant aspects were the reiteration of brownfield opportunities to significantly increase production levels within a short time frame and much lower cost than greenfield as well as the emphasis on Brits as a source of ore for other processing facilities outside of Vametco. I do not recall this being emphasised before and could well prove to be a bit of a game changer in terms of production levels.

From a BE perspective it is relatively low key. The November date mentioned previously looks to be the point at which the electrolyte for the test VRFB is refreshed with the end of the year being the new target for operation. I actually don't see an awful lot of revenue influencing news from BE this year.

For Lemur, things are very much as they have been for a while - coal deposit, PPA, BFS 'complete soon', EIA in progress. No real additional news on this.

I don't believe that Mokopane was mentioned in the interview instead the emphasis was very much on brownfield to increase production 'multiple times'.

SickOfTheRatRace,

I have only been involved in a couple of companies that were dual listed on AIM and JSE. With those I found that the volumes on JSE were tiny and the share price here and there frequently became disconnected.

Got to say that I agree with Pdub on this one. I have seen little evidence in 30 years of stock market investing that broker targets influence much of anything. When I first started investing I used to read them with enthusiasm but the intervening period have left me with a rather jaundiced view of anything broker related. I would largely ignore their share price predictions but certainly the narrative can be informative and it is worth challenging aspects where you fundamentally disagree with them.

Alfacomp,

The market is supposed to be forward looking although we have seen time and again on AIM that the pricing is essentially sentiment driven.

In essence what we are seeing is that the market doesn't believe in the sustainability of the Vanadium price. It will be dragged kicking and screaming as the profitability is proven and the rise is sustained.

I am seeing comments about Vanadium shares being held back all over the place including one on Twitter this morning on Tando which has more than halved in value at a time when the Vanadium price has gone up 60-70%. OK, they are not producing but there seems to be a bit of a value disconnect everywhere which suggests that the issue is Vanadium related rather than specific company/market/broker.

The Vanadium market is nothing like Brexit. It is impossible to factor in an ongoing supply deficit. The only thing that adjusts the price dynamic is an alteration to the supply/demand balance and that can only happen with increased supply and/or decreased demand. The latter can only be achieved by end product production cuts as the rebar standard will increase demand.

The one real unknown here is how much Chinese authorities enforce legislation on both supply and demand. The evidence suggests that they are enforcing legislation (anti-pollution) that is influencing supply and that they are likely to enforce legislation (rebar standards) that will influence demand. It is difficult to see what will address the imbalance until significant new supply kicks in. Until such a time we are likely to see continued strong pricing of Vanadium in the markets.

In my opinion there is no link.

I am intrigued as to how the rebar standards are factored in. This is a real supply deficit and the rebar standards change will result in an uplift in demand that is not a one off but an ongoing requirement for additional material. One off changes are generally factored in ahead of the event. I am sure that what we have been seeing recently has been consumers preparing for the change but I don't see how they can offset that change permanently.

I am expecting a period of volatility as the market adjusts to what the real demand is but at that point I would expect prices to continue their climb. Demand will have increased on an ongoing basis and it will take an increase in supply or loss of steel production capacity to balance the equation.

£148k and not delayed. Not a round number. I tend to associate these kind of trades as final trades but we haven't seen large trades to justify that suggestion.

As far as I can see, the Axa fund annualised about 22% return over the last 5 years which is very good indeed. Their top stocks Alphabet, Apple and Facebook so the performance is indicative of just how these stocks have fared over the last few years and has formed the basis for the bullishness in the US. I would expect a quite severe correction in the next year or so with these stocks being a particular focus given their run and popularity with PIs.

Alfacomp, That would be extremely useful. One of the frustrations I have had with Bushveld is the lack of clear information regarding the structure of the ore body. I am sure it is available somewhere, it's just damned difficult to find.

JonesyUK,

I think that the original point made is not unrealistic. We do tend to get used to BMN delivering on the major things (actually, delivering on things that we didn't know were going to be delivered) that we take it for granted that they will continue to do so. A lot of the investment thesis in BMN is based on the people concerned - particularly FM and MN.

The grade issue is a concern and, whilst it is known about and being addressed, we do owe it to ourselves to confirm that this is the case as this is material to production going forwards. Grade issues are common in miners but no less serious for that.

The strike is known and the impact will be quantified in the Q3 report (let's hope it is not repeated this time and the agreement holds).

But there were two further things I would like to comment on.

Firstly you say "If you remove the price appreciation of Vanadium". Well, that is a bit like a Brazilian discussing the 2014 World Cup semi-final against Germany and saying "If you ignore the goals they scored....". The entire appreciation in the Bushveld share price over the last couple of years has been based on the purchase of Vametco and the subsequent increase in the price of Vanadium. Pretty much nothing else is factored in (e.g. Mokopane was there when we fell to 1.2p).

Secondly you say "until then, I'd be surprised if we get back to 30p". Well, since the strike ceased we have been over 30p. This was despite the fact that the grade issue and impact of the strike were known factors. So the market priced those in and still ran up above 30p. Ergo the market does not see the grade issue as necessarily preventing a rise above 30p. On this basis, there is certainly at least a chance that you will be surprised!

SickOfTheRatRace,

Exactly.

Pdub,

I have nothing against the broker, just an institution that jumps after 6 months.