Member Info for Daisan

I take it you mean WLFE. As I recall Ophidian called it on technical grounds. When I looked at it it screamed 'avoid'! Fortunately I did and I hope that everyone else did or got out as well.

BigBiteNow,

I know that it is not germane to your main point but I believe that SPAngel have indicated $45/kg for 2019 rather than 'long term'. In my opinion the only thing that enables them to shift the target price only slightly is by keeping the long term price target at $35/kg. Nothing else would seem to fit their model.

This is interesting. The bulk of their valuation is around Vametco such that the rest of the assets are negligible in influencing the target price. If their assumption has gone from $35/kg to $45/kg then they are considering a $10/kg increase in profitability. If we put costs at $25/kg then the move should double profits. And yet they have increased the target price by less than 10%.

There is one explanation. The model uses DCF and the $45/kg figure applies to 2019 only. After 2019 they revert to $35/kg.

Actually I think PXOG is undervalued compared to its assets. It's all pretty small but then the market capitalisation is pretty small as well.

I would steer well clear of UKOG.

Triple?

daitom,

Maybe I mis-recall but I thought that this was well covered in the interview. They seemed clear that November was when the issue was to be rectified.

Paludina,

I have no doubt that this is the case. However, I prefer to see hard evidence of the effectiveness of any alterations in making nameplate capacity. Until that is the case I would be operating more on the basis of hope than reality so I prefer to work on a conservative basis in terms of calculations. Considering the Vanadium price, this is not too much of a hardship and doesn't lead me down the wrong path as both ways of looking at it reach the same conclusion.

I suspect that the naked trader has made more money from his book and, more particularly, seminars than he ever has from trading.

I presume it is the date by which they can source everything that is required to correct the issue. I wouldn't read too much into it personally. They went on to say that the solution would be operating by the end of the year.

Nice weather here though.

A dual listing does not require dilution. I suspect that many think that a JSE listing will coincide with some big announcement that will be supported by a placing. Given the constant emphasis on brownfield, putting 2 and 2 together would suggest an acquisition with Vanchem being the most obvious target. Of course, there is always increasing production beyond 5k mtv at Vametco on the table. And a hundred other things that we haven't thought of yet.

dfallows,

Absolutely nobody knows. I would be very disappointed if we raised at a discount when we are virtually printing money at the moment. Whilst brownfield is frequently mentioned, it is still speculation that Vanchem is the target (OK, it is logical but not guaranteed). Etc. etc.

We are just going to have to wait to see what rabbit FM pulls out of the hat.

I tend to agree that Mokopane licence is a significant piece of news. However, the interview yesterday was pretty clear that Mokopane by its absence is not on the list of priority things to do. Whether that will change as a result of the award of a licence, I don't know, but I suspect that we will be moving on a brownfield opportunity involving Brits ore before anything happens with Mokopane.

I also stick to my stance that Mokopane will be developed as a standalone operation to be funded by Vametco/Brits generated cash and debt.

Whilst I believe that there are many potential drivers, for me dividends would be the most significant boost for the share price.

To add to the debate, suggestion on Twitter this evening that V2O5 trading at $27/lb which would be another substantial rise in a 24 hour period.

It was massively oversubscribed at 10.3p. We are now at 28p so the same institutions may not necessarily be interested. You do often hear that a placing is oversubsubscribed but I rarely see significant off market transactions although I am aware that they do happen. At this point I would mention the 'D' word (dividend) as that will inevitably attract a new range of investors and there are a substantial number of income funds that would be only too happy to go for a 1-2p dividend here. I can't help but go back to the price action on AAZ when a dividend was announced. It's share price rose 75%.

It can seem that way sometimes.

Alfacomp, I would be only too happy if they did not sell the remainder of their holding. However, experience has suggested in these situations that they usually do. On that basis I will assume the worst until proven otherwise. They are clearly a reasonably considerate seller and, as such, sell into buying pressure. Since there hasn't been a lot of volume the last few sessions I would not rule out a resumption of the selling should the buying pressure return. Holders come and go and eventually the fundamentals will assert themselves so I am not that concerned as long as the Vanadium price continues rising strongly.

I think that we might have a few trades to appear based on the mid-afternoon and closing action.

For BMN that would be the equivalent of about 5.5m shares dumped in 15 minutes. I think that this would create a rather significant plunge as well. Unfortunately our wayward institution has over 30m left.

From a mining professional but not Vanadium (so no particular bias):

https://twitter.com/neilmarston5/status/1049656803003371526

"#Vanadium is genuinely having a battery metal moment right now as prices rocket, even though the price jump is predominantly driven by new rebar standards in Chinese steel. That’s driving a permanent change to global #V2O5 demand, so it won’t be easing off for a long time."

Which is clearly not the view of some. :-)